Nov. 15th Friday NHL Slate Breakdown

Happy Friday, and you’re welcome for the double dip this week, as I also previewed Wednesday’s slate.

From a very high level, Colorado is by far the most intriguing spot on the slate, as there’s a lot to sort out with the confirmed return of all three of Val Nichushkin (suspension, player assistance program), Jonathan Drouin (injury), and Miles Wood (injury) to an Avs squad that has been rolling, with four wins in their last five including strong efforts against L.A. and Carolina. The loss can be excused, 1-0 to the Jets in a game they possibly deserved to win.

You should be subscribed to The Morning Skate Podcast where we covered the Tuesday and Thursday slates, with some visuals included over on DJ’s YT channel for those slates similar to what I am sharing in this post.

The five-game slate includes PIT-CBJ at 7PM EST, three games at 9PM EST, and the final game of the night has a 10PM puck drop.

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Pittsburgh (-130) @ Columbus (+110) ||| o6.5 -122

Further reshuffling of the PIT deck is quite possible, but this is once again a situation where the top six is all that really comes into play. If we were to somehow get Poulin on L3 in place of Acciari, I would consider a Pulju-Poulin mini if trying to fit in COL1 with solid pieces surrounding it.

I lightly prefer PIT2, as it comes in $500 cheaper as constructed and nearly identical underlying expected fantasy points over the last stretch. Both lines allow access to 2 PP1 players, and Bunting on the PP2 vs. Beauvillier with no PP time is yet another small tiebreaker. I would expect Columbus to cause PIT to have a little bit too much ownership for my liking, as there are several nice looking spots despite the smaller slate, and Columbus continues to play very sound, structured, defensive hockey.

Erik Karlsson remains the only piece of this blue line I have any interest in, maintaining a rate of about 7 shot attempts per game to go with the premier PP role and some blocks equity.

MOODS’ DUDES: Evgeni Malkin ($7000), Erik Karlsson ($5500), Michael Bunting ($3300)

Dante Fabbro’s debut with the Blue Jackets on Tuesday evidently went well enough to see him stick with Werenski on the top pair. Columbus thoroughly outplayed Seattle to cap off their Western road trip, but Elvis was not up to the challenge, allowing 4 goals against on 2.2 xGs.

The forward lines get reshuffled a bit, with Voronkov joining old friend Kirill Marchenko on the top line with Sean Monahan. While most of this sample was with Chinakhov, Marchenko and Monahan do have a decent track record together over the last two seasons:

While they are getting (slightly) outshot and outgenerated, being up 25-15 in nearly 500 minutes is very good, and 3 GF/60 is going to play for fantasy regardless of what is given up the other way. Most importantly, Voronkov has such a low price here, at just $2800, not reflective of the sort of player he was last year, who was outstanding in a per-minute sense. This season has been a slower start after missing several weeks to injury, but this promotion is new, and the salary opens up heavy interest in CBJ1 for me at just $15100.

Fantilli-Sillinger-Chinakhov is mildly interesting, but the $700 discount doesn’t do a ton for me, as Voronkov makes mini-stacks more interesting as well.

Werenski continues his assault on floor stats, with 49 shots+blocks in his last 10; the points should follow if the offense can pick it up back a notch to match their hot start to the season. Not particularly likely that they sustain that, of course, but worth noting that Tristan Jarry is expected to get the net for Pittsburgh this evening. He was excellent in his AHL stint, but obviously struggled mightily in the NHL season’s opening week.

MOODS’ DUDES: Zach Werenski ($7400), Sean Monahan ($6200), Dmitri Voronkov ($2800)

Washington (+140) @ Colorado (-166) ||| o6.5 -118

For the third consecutive writeup, Washington is on the slate. Their prices have hardly moved across the nine days, but this time the road matchup is made substantially more difficult by the opponent, not just hitting the road for this one and that Colorado is a strong adversary, but also in that we will see for the first time tonight a full-strength Colorado squad. They’ve managed to survive without them, but getting Wood, Nichushkin, and Drouin back in the fold, in some capacity (lineup TBD) is sure to help reinforce things both offensively and defensively.

Even without those guys, Colorado has looked entirely average defensively, utilizing the likes of Ivan Ivan and Joel Kiviranta in elevated roles, so I’m planning to wait it out for Washington, rather than betting on there being any sort of rust to shake off defensively, given the glut of options on the slate I really like.

Ovi always. Next.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex Ovechkin ($7500)

I find it very unlikely that COL1 gets split apart, at least to start, but the most important note about the return of the three players listed above is that COL1’s minutes should be immediately placed back in check. Nathan MacKinnon is averaging 25 minutes a night is not the craziest thing I’ve ever heard, but Artturi Lehkonen averaging 24 minutes in his five games post-injury is batshit insane. Their projections should immediately be docked ~20% (expectation of 20 minutes for Lehkonen still feels extreme, tbh), as far less of the responsibility at both ends of the ice will be theirs.

Likewise, it’s hard to see the PP1 being reconfigured given its success to date, but having multiple options to replace Lehkonen makes the play even thinner.

Despite having several weeks of Colorado advertising that Nichushkin would return exactly on this day, DraftKings does not have him on the slate. I guess it’s a good thing that we’ll have some role information before we have to make a decision on what absurd price he starts at (my guess? $3500 like he’s some AHL callup fresh off the plane), but the uncertainty hurts everyone for fantasy.

Mittelstadt - Drouin is an interesting ministack that I’m sure doesn’t get a ton of attention without Nichushkin available to click in, as a combined $8800 for two players who primarily pass could lead to one or the other having to shoot? One of those guys should be PP1 as well, even if it gets reconfigured slightly.

Pay attention to lines here, as it is entirely possible Drouin or Nichushkin gets the immediate call to the top line.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mikko Rantanen ($8700), Jonathan Drouin ($3300)

Nashville (-125) @ Calgary (+105) ||| o6.0 -115

Nashville is on a b2b against a Flames team that exists to troll me. I’m pretty good passing on this spot.

L1 fully PP correlated is interesting with Forsberg-ROR-Stamkos, I’ll make the cutoff like 4% ownership before I seriously consider it though. CGY is using Zary at C, meaning Sharangovich-Zary-Huberdeau could very well be one of the worst defensive lines we’ve seen, and I would expect them to square off with L3, Tomasino-Parssinen-Evangelista. It’s incredibly cheap, there’s good pedigree there, and you get 2 PP2 players too. I can’t think of why you’d need to go this cheap on three players, but it’s an option if you need it.

Roman Josi is always an option, but I’m not overly keen on betting on this game environment in any outsized fashion.

MOODS’ DUDES: Filip Forsberg ($8500), Luke Evangelista ($2900)

Calgary’s lineup reconfiguration gives us a pair of perfectly correlated 5v5/PP units against a traveling, tired, bad Nashville team. The only downside is Saros is going to get the start here, as Wedgewood was fed to the wolves in Edmonton (and fought to get them a point they did not deserve).

I love Connor Zary as a player, so him going to the top line, top PP with Huberdeau and Sharangovich is enough to pique my interest. Ultimately, however, I don’t think I can pull the trigger. I think I would rather one-off Matt Coronato, who is poised to join that trio (plus Weegar) on the PP1. I think Coronato’s 5v5 role is far more secure alongside Backlund/Coleman.

As a team that will split their PP units, Kadri with Pospisil and Kuzmenko (the latter two of which combine to cost $5600…) is similarly interesting, given Kadri is an awesome fantasy asset. Pospisil and Kuzmenko have been horrendous this season, thus the tanking price tags on each, but have a track record of solid DFS performance. Paying up to be contrarian with a $6500 Rasmus Andersson caps off an outstanding large-field GPP differentiator stack. It’s not the most likely to hit, but when it does it has the potential to separate you in a big way.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor Zary ($3500), Matt Coronato ($3000)

Vegas (-130) @ Utah (+110) ||| o6.0 -120

Eichel & Dorofeyev joined forces on Wednesday, after Cassidy put the lines in a blender once again for an unknown reason. The two best xFP producers on the team, the duo will cost you $14300 but gives you access to the two PP weapons most likely to hit. Utah is probably not as soft a matchup as the field will give them credit for, so I’m going to trust the oddsmakers here who have VGK as only a -130 road favorite, with a 6.0 total. A ~3.3 team total is nothing to scoff at, but I think I’d rather target the other side of this game, as Jack Eichel has hit the DK shots bonus twice (in 16 games) and has maxed out at just 7 shot attempts. He’s not a $9000 player via process, but merely by an uber-inflated on-ice Sh%.

A general lack of volume keeps my interest in the defenders here in check, as well.

MOODS’ DUDES: Pavel Dorofeyev ($5300)

Utah’s line changes worked to perfection! Michael Carcone losing his mind and drawing a 7-minute penalty (2 for instigating, 5 for fighting for sucker punching an unsuspecting Hurricane who was unable to retaliate/drop his gloves) that included another 2 minutes for high sticking surely makes this cake chart a little bit overstated, but Utah’s plan was clearly to batten down the hatches once they took the lead anyway.

Nick Bjugstad scored twice, showing instant chemistry with Keller and Schmaltz and breaking even in the 5v5 xG share last game (Keller and Schmaltz finished a bit below 50%). As a player who certainly can do this based on his track record of decent shot and point production, $3000 makes a lot of sense, even without a PP role. Clayton Keller a couple weeks ago was $1000 more expensive than he is now, making this a good time to buy back in on Utah’s gamebreaker, while Nick Schmaltz is owed a goal, with none on the year leading to his depressed tag as well.

None of the xFP outputs underlying Utah are can’t-miss, by any stretch, but the pricing reflects that. I’d rather just stack the top line than play Cooley roulette alongside the GuentherGOAT, as $14200 for the top line is not hard to fit with whatever you want to play.

Vegas has been below average at 5v5 xGA/60, at PK xGA/60, and are below average in net at this point in the season, and my stuff tends to agree. It’s just masked by an awesome offense. Hard to argue with Clayton Keller and friends against that.

MOODS’ DUDES: Clayton Keller ($6700), Nick Schmaltz ($4500), Nick Bjugstad ($3000)

Detroit (-142) @ Anaheim (+120) ||| o6.0 -118

The nightcap features an exciting game that I am dreading turning on the television for. Anaheim games in general are good for fantasy, while Detroit has a deeply concentrated offense:

I could see DET failing here, and I could see DET3 stealing a couple goals, but otherwise the path to a $17800 DET1 hitting is as wide as it will ever be. Neither of the top two Anaheim lines provide any resistance defensively, and they give up a ton of quantity as well to accelerate your stacks to adding in shots bonuses. Hell, even Jack Eichel bonused against them the other day, as covered above, for just the second time this year!

I’m afraid the spot is a little too obvious, of course, and so ownership will need to be accounted for. Lukas Dostal (and John Gibson, if his season debut is indicative of anything) has given Anaheim a lot of room for error defensively, but I’ll never fade or target a team personally due to the goaltending position. I am humble enough to know I’ll never know for certain whether in a select sample of 35 shots, 33 are stopped (.942, you’re the best goalie in the world!) or 31 (.885, pack your shit we’re off to the ECHL!).

My hunch is that 15-20% ownership on DET1 is perfectly fine, and so long as ANA is as injured as they currently look, the spot is too nice to pass up.

Shout out to last slate’s Moods Dude Simon Edvinsson, who racked up 22 DKPts via 4 shots, 3 blocks, and the OT winner. Edvinsson is a Dude, that’s for sure, and is outshining Seider at the moment.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Larkin ($6800), Lucas Raymond ($4600), Simon Edvinsson ($3600)

It’s not the amount of time you’re on the ice, it’s what you do with it.

Despite averaging just a shade under 14 minutes (and trending in the wrong direction), Cutter has still managed to attempt roughly a trillion shots, with north of 7 attempts per night. At some point we’ll have to tell him, right? It’s never happening. 103 shot attempts into his career, the NCAA’s best goal scorer in years has yet to find the back of the net.

While Cutter toils away in the 4th line role with Jansen Harkins and Ross Johnston, the real players up top look more and more like mirages with each passing day. Vatrano-Zegras-Terry will remain PP1 correlated for as long as McTavish is on the shelf (I’m not expecting him back Friday, but check to be sure!), but do they reach the level of the other mid-tier stacks on the board today? I don’t really see it. Vatrano makes for an elite one-off play, or as a stack with Zellweger, by my estimation.

Zellweger is doing his best Erik Karlsson impression, generating 6.5 attempts per game, all from the blue line, which theoretically puts him in the 5+ shots conversation, but getting only ~40% on net can lead to similarly frustrating nights as EK65, such as last game where Zellweger peppered seven to the net (I think it was 8, personally, a missed net disappeared from what I could tell in the pbp) and was credited with two on goal. Will I ladder Zellweger up to 5+ shots at 10/1 tonight once again? You know it, baby.

I’m not scared of Zellweger burying me in DFS, although I know the slate I don’t click him in is when he finally puts up the 35-bomb I know he’s capable of.

MOODS’ DUDES: Frank Vatrano ($5200), Olen Zellweger ($4000)

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