Nov. 1st Friday NHL Daily Fantasy Overview

Welcome back to what is becoming a weekly Friday slate write-up. I’m not committing to this schedule for the year, and I do want to do some other stuff in this space, but it’s a good distraction for when I’m toast on Thursday nights and want to avoid crying for four hours, as I’ll do this analysis anyway…

You should be subscribed to The Morning Skate Podcast where we covered the Tuesday and Thursday slates, with some visuals included over on DJ’s YT channel for those slates similar to what I am sharing in this post.

Remember that Friday features a five-game main slate at 7PM EST, but there is also a game in Finland at 2PM EST between Dallas and Florida for some well-received Afternoon Hockey:

• xGF and xGA are 5v5 stats, measured per 60 and with an adjustment for opponent. The “AA” (above average) component is a basic concept in creating a unique baseline for each game based on known-opponent strength (at time of the game). It’s an idea I’ve used for ~ten years now (I presented a college paper about how xGFAA over 10 games improved goal-scoring prediction by a small amount in ~2015!) and for me originated with Phil Steele’s college football work. It’s not perfect, but I use it as my main measure of unitary offense and I recommend the Phil Steele breakdown where the concept is explained with more depth. At worst, I reckon, it’s telling me the same thing as the field is getting from their basic xG stats, and at best I’m gaining a slight edge. Regardless, I’ll be slightly different, which is always good in a land of optimizers and projections for natural differentiation.

• Corsi and Goal stats use the same principle, with Corsis being far more predictable (I like to use this for Pace) and Goals being highly volatile.

• The Index for each matchup is a sum of the offensive “for” vs the defensive “against” statistics, where 0.00 is presumably a “league average” matchup indicator.

• I post this table with more player-level details each day about an hour before lock in the MSP Discord, which I suggest joining.

You’ll notice Winnipeg toward the bottom, thanks to a surprisingly resilient CBJ squad that’s performed well to-date, especially defensively (with a huge boost from shooting % offensively); but an even larger part due to their own failings at 5v5. It’s important to consider the context, and that getting run over by Toronto is not the end of the world. But… again, this math is accounting for opponent (as Jekyll and Hyde as TOR can be, they’re still good) already, so let’s not double count it.

Score effects could be driving some of this (they are 9-1-0, after all), but regression seems to be in-bound for the Jets. With how popular I would expect the Jets to be in this spot with their implied team total, it’s at least worth a consideration whether the ownership is warranted.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

NY Islanders (-102) @ Buffalo (-118) ||| o6.0 -105

The Islanders are just all sorts of sad right now. Last week, we were discussing a split PP unit, last game we were talking about a 5v5 split of Horvat and Barzal, and it’s safe to say vibes are poor on the Island.

What’s so disappointing about this is that Anthony Duclair looked like the pick-up of the offseason in an extremely small sample, as the first line was looking like a legitimate first line.

The math is not mathing on Barzal’s stats since then, as despite a lot of offensive creation the Islanders have scored 0 5v5 goals.

In 161 5v5 minutes, Barzal has played opponents to a 2-2 tie. That’s nearly three full games of NHL hockey. It doesn’t make any sense.

I’m sure Simon Holmstrom is a perfectly good person and if he were family I’d be damn proud of him, but there’s simply zero argument in favor of him playing in any NHL team’s top six, and grinding Barzal to a dead stop (and failing to finish any of the chances created for him in the meantime) is a function of the Duclair injury that goes beyond the fancy stats.

Holmstrom was split from Horvat-Barzal late in the Columbus debacle, so we might see Maxim Tsyplakov on L1 with Barzal and Horvat instead.

I’m on the lookout for L1 Nelson (as Roy did for a long stretch of last season, when the Isles were playing well), as well as a top-six Oliver Wahlstrom, who has been a scratch the past several games but of course adds a scoring element, at least in theory, to the offense that they’ve not been able to replace since Duclair was injured.

I’m minorly interested in the Islanders if they try something, anything, new on Friday night. Barzal’s price is right, the rest of the squad is priced for their recent struggles, and a road date with Buffalo could see fireworks on a rather boring slate. With no staggeringly good xG matchups, I’m willing to dive into uncertainty more than I would be on slates with clear and obvious top plays, and NYI will serve up a healthy dose of uncertainty in this Dia de los Muertos matchup.

Stay tuned to AM skate for lines and roster info. We’re expecting Alexander Romanov to return relatively soon, and his return would be a legitimate boost to support Dobson on the second pair.

MOODS’ DUDES: Noah Dobson ($6400), Mathew Barzal ($5600), Maxim Tsyplakov ($3300)

Buffalo has been hot and cold to start the year, resulting in a 4-5-1 record through 10 games. They’ve played just two games since last Wednesday, and with the Isles recent struggles I’m slightly surprised to see them as only a slight -118 favorite in this spot.

Tage has powered a legitimate offensive force of a first line and is underpriced at $7300 on this slate, while Peterka has been productive with a PP1 job and Tuch has been better but is more expensive and remains on the 2nd PP unit.

Dylan Cozens is owed a bit of good luck, and who better to get the best out of him than Top-Six Center Ryan McLeod, while Jordan Greenway has been surprisingly fantasy relevant in his first handful of games.

Jack Quinn is off to infect Jason Zucker and Peyton Krebs and I assume will keep my Best Puck shares careening toward zero, but at least that line is cheap and all gets PP time? I can see an argument for the line that should tee off against the weakest NYI lines all night.

Owen Power might have arrived, as his rate stats are all career-bests. While he may never be a double-bonus threat on a nightly basis the way Rasmus Dahlin is, he’s looking more and more like an everyday fantasy option, something we’ve not been able to say about the former #1 Overall Pick to this point in his career.

MOODS’ DUDES: Tage Thompson ($7300), Dylan Cozens ($4300), Owen Power ($4200)

Ottawa (+154) @ NY Rangers (-185) ||| o6.5 +100

Ottawa having the best xG matchup of the night was not on my bingo card, though the small samples will drive results when the Rangers most-recent game is this dismantling at the hands of the Capitals:

Yes, the same Capitals squad that the Rangers swept, easily, in last year’s playoffs.

The Rangers’ stats on the aggregate look Fine Enough, but with limited options on the slate Ottawa does stand out. Both teams also contribute nicely to the Corsi Pace side of the matchup, so it feels less likely this game turns into a boring dump-and-chase fest.

Ottawa’s discussion begins and ends with Brady Tkachuk, one of the league’s most reliable fantasy assets, who has started off the season with a deft scoring touch. It’s rare that we find 10-game stretches of Brady outperforming his expected results, and that’s exactly what we see to begin the season. Ridly Grieg offers salary relief on the top line, though he sucks and I wouldn’t play him if I were you, as he’s the exact sort of player who just gets completely engulfed by Brady in fantasy. You’re praying for 10 points off two assists or a lucky goal, as there’s nothing in the peripheral game for Grieg chasers.

Tim Stutzle is fine, but overpriced for what he is (a dynamic playmaker with no shot floor and limited goal upside when in Tkachuk’s orbit), while Norris and Batherson on L2 get some nice PP correlation though have seen their prices rise as production has kicked off in a major way since Giroux was moved to their line.

If I can use a $2500 center, Adam Gaudette will be my top choice, as he has come up in discussions since Pinto was confirmed out last Friday, and was highlighted on Tuesday’s Morning Skate Podcast, yet I’ve shown up to the table with zero Gaudette only to see him ram it down my throat with two goals each vs. Vegas and St. Louis on Fri/Tues. The minutes are of course incredibly thin, but his profile matches that of a useful fantasy option, and until Pinto returns he should hold onto a PP2 job. You don’t need much from a $2.5k C, as the $15 winner showed on Tuesday eating a zero from Grieg ($2700 center on that slate):

Defensively, you’re probably not finding room for Sanderson, while Chabot profiles similarly for $1300 less. Both are fine options, and while the rest of the donkeys in the stable do enough for fantasy to be considered as punts, none are a priority.

MOODS’ DUDES: Brady Tkachuk ($8400), Josh Norris ($5000), Adam Gaudette ($2500)

I don’t really know what to do with the Rangers, as NYR2 is always in play, but I think I’ve played the stack twice in the past calendar year, as I’m not a huge fan of playing talented players with guaranteed PP2 roles at salary & ownership. Lafreniere generally fits that mold. I don’t really want to pick on OTT’s top six, which hurts a way-too-cheap NYR1 (2017 moods is doing backflips at the idea of a $5800 Zibanejad vs. the Senators), but if ownership simply doesn’t arrive at just $15000 total then NYR1 has to be in the mix, as they are still producing just fine and have two integral pieces to a strong PP1.

Chytil with Kakko and Cuylle has been one of the league’s best 5v5 lines this season, drawing plenty of praise from observers. I don’t know what to make of this for ownership purposes, but I suspect NYR3 could flip NYR1 in ownership, with maybe 10% on each of the two lines and 20% on NYR2 as decided favorites in a 6.5 total environment.

Fox is getting a bit unlucky production-wise, but <4 attempts per game and 10 blocks in 9 games do not give me much inspiration. K’Andre Miller looks slightly better on both fronts without the PP1 usage for a large discount. If you are completely punting defense, this is a good game to look to, as there’s really no one that I would say “absolutely not” to throwing in to make a lineup work.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mika Zibanejad ($5800), Filip Chytil ($3900)

Winnipeg (-185) @ Columbus (+154) ||| o6.0 -118

We dove into the Winnipeg side above in the slate preview. Clearly WPG is in a good spot, but the field will agree and I am becoming more and more convinced that CBJ can be something akin to last year’s Capitals, but with possibly a better D-corps? WPG is punching above their weight across the board, as you’d suspect any team that is 9-1-0 to be doing, but with even Gabe Vilardi getting involved in the party last game it may be time to cut our losses and move on to other spots.

L1 is perfectly correlated, of course, and Kyle Connor serves up a nice discount from Kucherov/Kaprizov for similar production, though it’s not as sustainable (and frankly, I don’t think he’s nearly as talented as those two, if you want to talk “beating expecteds” with regularity). After the few scorching hot games, WPG2 has failed to convert that into meaningful TOI figures, with Ehlers failing to crack 18:00 even once and Perfetti yet to garner even 16 mins TOI. If they start losing games, perhaps they play more when trailing, but that will keep expectations in check until proven otherwise, as it’s the same old story for Ehlers and friends.

WPG3 is where Nino Niederreiter resides, and his production has been ridiculous. Shockingly, with 5G 4A and 24SOG in 10 games, Nino is slightly underperforming his play, and checks in at just $3300. If you’re particularly worried about CBJ1 being Good, then Nino is a great way to get exposure to this WPG side, as WPG3 profiles to face the likes of Mathieu Olivier and Kevin Labanc instead.

Morrissey is always in play sub-$6000, and while Neal Pionk’s absurd usage has resulted in a $5000 price tag, Colin Miller is also on PP2 and remains the stone minimum. He’s a risky play that has a huge chunk of his distribution in the 1.5-5.8 DK Point range, but also can hit 15+ far more often than the normal shitbag punt.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kyle Connor ($8000), Josh Morrissey ($5700), Nino Niederreiter ($3300)

Hello, Columbus. Think about these two facts:

• Columbus has the league’s highest 5v5 Sh%, north of 14% and a nose in front of the Vegas Golden Knights.

• Of the 12 skaters in the lineup tonight that have a top 200 xFP profile (of ~280 skaters in total across all teams playing today), only two of them are clearly unsustainable producers… and that is Justin Danforth and Mathieu Olivier. Every single DFS-relevant option has been a bit priced up due to their production, but not totally priced up to meet their production, and that production is being supported by strong xG generation, a multitude of shot attempts, and even primary assist statistics (the three stats make up xFP alongside blocked shots).

It seems quite likely that a matchup with Winnipeg will suppress ownership, and I’m not sure that makes sense even in spite of the incoming Sh% regression.

WPG1 is pretty terrible defensively, and Ehlers will not be up for Selke trophy consideration. CBJ1 is $15600, is perfectly correlated to the PP1, and has 31.31 xFP per game as a trio on the year. WPG1, in the same h2h matchup, will be 3x as owned and the PP1 trio produces 32.11 xFP per game so far this year. WPG1 is certainly more talented, but the process is largely similar between the two sides, and with CBJ at home, the magic may continue for one more game.

You can look to Fantilli and Sillinger for some salary relief, but CBJ1 is the target, along with Zach Werenski who has been among the league’s best defensemen in the early stages of this year.

MOODS’ DUDES: Zach Werenski ($7100), Sean Monahan ($5700), Yegor Chinakhov ($4700)

Tampa (-108) @ Minnesota (-112) ||| o6.0 -115

Always Kucherov is a pretty good rule, but Always Kaprizov has been an even better rule to this point in the season. The two heavyweights square off for the second time in a week, after Kaprizov scored twice (and added an assist) in a winning effort in Tampa last Thursday. Kucherov disappointed by only scoring a goal (wah) and adding nothing else to his scoresheet to finish at 10 points on DK.

Minnesota also stands to get back Ryan Hartman for this matchup, which possibly could improve their offensive outlook. The recipe for success at this point looks very much like the ideal Minnesota season, with stellar defensive work supplemented by Kaprizov doing one-to-four ridiculous things a night to will the puck into the back of the net.

Pricing pretty much matches my favorability rating on each Tampa player, with Hagel now priced up to where a L2 PP1 Lightning should sit, and Hedman maxing out his new-found PP usage (he’s shooting and blocking! a ton!) all the way up to $6700. Conor Geekie on L2 has unlocked a skill component that was not present otherwise, but his minutes are rough and he’s fully in “stacks only” territory until his minutes don’t make Cole Perfetti blush. I cannot in good faith suggest any Lightning exposure on the road in Minnesota, out of respect for our defensive kings of the North.

Should Erik Cernak miss this game, a healthy dose of minutes should be piled onto a $2500 defender. I have Lilleberg, last game’s scratch, slotted in for Cernak, but it’s quite possible that Raddysh or Perbix slide into the top four as well. Whoever gets the nod will be high on the Punts list.

MOODS’ DUDES: Nikita Kucherov ($9200), Victor Hedman ($6700)

Kirill Kaprizov has 19 DKPts per game and I have him as the unluckiest player on the team. 18 points in 9 games Kirill Kaprizov has 10 primary assists to lead the NHL over multiple dudes with 11 games played who have mustered only 9. Kaprizov is a must-play if you have any interest in Minnesota here and stands out head and shoulders above the crowd of elite forwards. Running mate Mats Zuccarello is a main beneficiary, but Kaprizov’s superpower is that he simply elevates every player around him while still managing to do nearly all of it himself.

I’m running out of superlatives and my contrarian brain is barking at me, so I’ll just state this to get it said. In Minnesota’s last three games (win Tampa, loss Philly, win Pittsburgh) Kaprizov has 30 shot attempts and only 12 on goal, while Matt Boldy has 25 attempts and 19 on goal.

You could argue these guys should be $2000 more expensive as a pair, because what in the fresh hell is 55 attempts over three games for two players?

Never, ever, play Brock Faber and be thankful for his existence as he continually distributes the puck to Kaprizov to do fun things.

Ryan Hartman is back, but appears likely to slot into the third line and is $4500 anyway, so not too much to like there.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kirill Kaprizov ($9100), Matt Boldy ($7800), Mats Zuccarello ($6700)

New Jersey (-162) @ Calgary (+136) ||| o6.5 -112

Jacob Markstrom returns to Calgary after shutting out his other former team on Wednesday. Happy Markstrom Revenge week to all who celebrate.

Jack Hughes looks cheap at first glance, but then your eyes bulge out of your skull a bit when you see just how dominant Nico Hischier has been. While all counting stats are a bit inflated (he’s leading the league in goals! In 13 games!) with their early schedule, the dominance Hischier is showing on the ice is making DJ look like a smart guy (don’t ask him who told him “Nico Hischier is last year’s JEEK” though, no one knows where he gets his ideas!).

You can about double these minutes when you look to Timo’s entire NJ tenure, this line in 150 minutes has been about this dominant throughout, so this isn’t just an early-season thing that we should expect to revert.

While you certainly can play NJ1, I prefer the guys who will get to pick their teeth with the likes of Huberdeau and Kadri at 5v5 as opposed to who I would project should get the shutdown treatment from Backlund-Coleman, who still look very good together as a duo regardless of who plays with them. Perhaps teams start to treat Hischier as the #1, but I doubt it, as Jack Hughes has been great to start the year, too! Just… not nearly as good as Hischier.

Noesen has been a good add to the PP1, while Dougie’s role has barely moved an inch despite the return of Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce. This could change as they ramp up, but Hughes does not look like he will be threatening Dougie’s PP job any time soon, he says before NJ inevitably goes 0/8 on the PP tonight and spoils that.

MOODS’ DUDES: Nico Hischier ($7100), Timo Meier ($6400), Dougie Hamilton ($6300)

Hope the CGY donkeys enjoyed their week of fun in the sun. The chickens have come home to roost, and the numbers now match the eye test. This team sucks out loud:

You can probably get me to bite on a min-sal Coronato wherever he slots into the lineup (with Honzek being demoted, I have him going to the Backlund-Coleman line, but check on that if interested). Otherwise, it’s pretty gross even with Sharangovich’s return creating a perfectly correlated PP1 5v5 line.

Shout out to Huska for at least getting his team to push the tempo at 5v5 all season long, at least to date:

That sort of tempo could invite the likes of Weegar and Andersson into consideration for raw shots+blocks potential, while also serving the game environment quite well from a fantasy standpoint.

MOODS’ DUDES: No thank you!

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