Nov. 13th Wednesday NHL Slate Breakdown

Wednesday offers up a nice five-game NHL slate for us, and rather than complain about a profitable night that still went horribly wrong on Tuesday (WPG1 scoring 4 times and getting just one assist is.. tough.. when EDM gets 90+ fpts in the final 21 minutes of what was a 1-1 snoozer), we’re focusing on the future. Well, some of us. But before we shift focus, we have one more reflection on the past, from the opening to Friday’s write-up:

Yeah, I called Lars Eller to Washington, didn’t I? Next in my bag of tricks, I predict the political equivalent of Skip Bayless is going to be named Secretary of Defense.

Oh… really?

At least Lars Eller is used to playing places that don’t give a shit about defense…

Canadians, don’t worry, we’ve got it handled down here, there’s nothing to worry about.

Let’s get into the hockey before some folks boycott this free newsletter (I am bad at this whole “Capitalism” thing…).

Tuesday brought a lot of success to the Discord, including a FHWC seat winner who credited DJ’s stacks from the podcast for his victory, so thanks to bthrasher24 for sharing this in Discord and big congrats on the win! From towelieee in Discord:

You should be subscribed to The Morning Skate Podcast where we covered the Tuesday and Thursday slates, with some visuals included over on DJ’s YT channel for those slates similar to what I am sharing in this post.

The DraftKings and UD slates lock at 7:30 EST, giving us an extra 30 minutes for building and drafting. Let’s take advantage!

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Detroit (+120) @ Pittsburgh (-142) ||| o6.5 -120

The DET top-six roulette wheel has landed on $4300 Lucas Raymond tonight, so I expect heavy ownership on DET1 (leaving Kane for L2 and reduced ownership) and him in particular heading into Pittsburgh to face a team that has already waved the white flag and moved on to (hopefully) featuring more young talent in their lineup with the Lars Eller trade.

Alex DeBrincat leads the team in expected FP per game, barely edging out Dylan Larkin, and it’s still early but I’m worried about the Red Wings, you guys. Specifically with DeBrincat, despite a locked-in L1 PP1 role virtually all season, he’s on track for his second-worst iCorsi/60 season behind the shortened 2021 season and the worst shots/60 year by a healthy mark.

He’s trading quantity for quality of chances, as his time spent with Dylan Larkin has created a lot of dangerous chances and xG creation, but losing access to shot bonuses to the extent he’s shown is troubling when he’s looking like $6k chalk against a Pittsburgh team that once again has vibes that don’t match the process, thanks to Goalies:

DET1 feels like boom or bust, high ownership plays, while the remainder of the lineup sucks the life out of anyone who considers it, needing multiple goals to really make any noise. Even Berggren is more questionable than before, with a limited role made even more volatile by splitting PP2 reps in practice on Tuesday. I’m fine with the defenders here, Edvinsson has been a revelation and Chiarot is a long-term “plug your nose and hope for 15” type guy, but I am far more interested in the other side of this matchup.

MOODS’ DUDES: Lucas Raymond ($4300), Simon Edvinsson ($3700)

I am writing this before PIT’s AM skate, so lots is likely to change in both their layout and my relative interest level in this side. We saw a PP1 at practice with 4F 1D (exactly who you’d expect), which is a great start.

I am seeing chatter about Sam Poulin getting his first look in this spot, and I’m fine with a PP2 ministack with a 5v5 linemate to save some money if the opportunity presents itself. Poulin was a first rounder in 2019 and was fine in the minors as an offensive producer, but leaves a bit to be desired as a shooter (right at the league-average shot rate).

The main attractions are of course the forwards, plus Erik Karlsson, who is staggeringly cheap for the matchup. His underlyings still look excellent, and he’s taken control of the Pittsburgh blueline, like it or not. We should expect more outings like the 25-point outburst he had against the Caps on Friday, as guys who put the double bonus in play with 7 attempts per game and over a block per game with PP1 roles don’t often come in this cheap. When the player has Erik Karlsson’s talent, it’s an absolute bonanza.

Assuming I am correct in the lines above, I lightly prefer the $500 savings on Geno-Rust vs. Sid-Rakell, plus an additional boost with Bunting rejoining L2 due for some positive regression.

MOODS’ DUDES: Evgeni Malkin ($6800), Bryan Rust ($5900), Erik Karlsson ($5300)

Toronto (+110) @ Washington (-130) ||| o6.0 -120

The end of the Leafs’ loss to Ottawa brought us a full PP1 correlation, should it stick, in Knies-Tavares-Marner. Even without Matthews, Knies has shouldered exactly zero of the workload, posting only 3 shots in those 4 games. The main problem here, as I see it, is the matchup with a now-fully-healthy Caps squad that already looks awfully intimidating, but the sheer lack of volume without Matthews is doubly concerning:

Toronto has been fine defensively without their all-world C, but offensively they’ve been heavily reliant on the PP and the talent of Willy/Marner/JT to put the puck in the net. I understand the appeal of an $18000 top line, should JT stick on the first line, but out of deference to the fightin’ McMichaels, I, much like Mitch Marner, will be passing on this spot.

MOODS’ DUDES: William Nylander ($7300), John Tavares ($7000), Mitch Marner ($6900)

I’m out of ways to cover just how much of a rockstar atmosphere Ovechkin and McMichael have created to this point in the year. Like, seriously, I just did this five days ago. Go read that if you missed it. Nothing has changed except for that they’ve gotten even healthier and scored EIGHT on St. Louis one night after an exciting loss to Pittsburgh. Prices are crawling upward, but still don’t match the potency this offense has displayed, and the context is only getting better and better as guys like Chychrun and Matt Roy get back up to speed. Washington is approaching Total Wagon status.

Lars Eller was confirmed to not be available on Weds night, meaning Lapierre will center the third line, with Sgarbossa (practice’s 3C) being sent down to make room for Eller on the roster. Neat. We know the drill here.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex Ovechkin ($7500), Connor McMichael ($5000)

Carolina (-192) @ Utah (+160) ||| o6.0 -118

What if I told you Eric Robinson Night lasted an entire fortnight? An integral part of the hottest line in hockey, it is rather jarring to see a Carolina Hurricane tied for third in the NHL scoring race to-date:

The on-ice Sh% will come down, doubly so because it’s still a Hurricanes offense that prioritizes quantity over all else, but the quality has been excellent as well. There are no holes in this Carolina attack, and it is worth monitoring the status of Seth Jarvis on Wednesday, as the offense became more concentrated on Monday without him due to a late scratch for injury.

Utah’s defense looks surprisingly solid, limiting quantity to an insane degree, though I’m not sure I’m too worried about their last few games that are doing most of the heavy lifting in their trendline:

The past three games you can see the sheer lack of volume against UTA, but I’m not convinced this has anything to do with Utah themselves. They’ve looked good in this department all year long, but Carolina is an extreme matchup for anyone, so I wouldn’t mind targeting a top line in Carolina that has the added benefit of solidifying Roslovic’s role with no threat of Jarvis stealing it (should he miss).

On D, Sean Walker becomes a secondary value option, as Jackson Blake (good prospect, too few minutes sadly) slid up to the PP1 and Walker went to PP2. A very good and fine player, this gives Walker a decent role in all situations with good rates for $2900. A priority punt, if you need one.

MOODS’ DUDES: Sebastian Aho ($7300), Jack Roslovic ($4400), Sean Walker ($2900)

The lines went back in a blender, which is very unfortunate as Schmaltz-Hayton-Maccelli carries a 75% xG share this year and would have been my only reasonable suggestion. Pricing is depressed across the board, so I don’t mind some attention paid here, but three things to note:

1. Bjugstad moves to 1C, yet does not have any PP role. He’s a great per-minute player, and Schmaltz/Keller are good, we just have very little sample on this unit as a trio the past. In 180 minutes together, they carry a 44.6% xG share and a 52.4% goal share. I’d be more inclined to take the plunge if Bjugstad was getting any PP work.

2. Alex Kerfoot goes to PP1. Not much was working, anyway, but this is an unfortunate development for fantasy.

3. The 12F 6D setup has been used sparingly by Tourigny, but Olli Maatta will slide in alongside Sergachev, which would be a boon to his production. He’s not a good per-minute player, but worth monitoring what he can do if given 20+ minutes. Most importantly, this takes Kesselring off my radar as a punt option.

I guess all things considered I am inclined to pass on this spot, as badly as a cheap UTA2 wants me to buy in with Guenther being fed by the two best non-Keller playmakers in Maccelli and Cooley for a combined $12100.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Guenther ($5600), Nick Schmaltz ($4600)

Vegas (-192) @ Anaheim (+160) ||| o6.5 +102

Fresh off a whooping from Carolina, Vegas continues to regress toward their season-long stats with this throw-the-tape-out effort:

They ended Monday’s game how I outlined it above, most noteworthy was Roy being sent back to L3 and Alex Holtz being elevated in his place. Mark Stone has not practiced, so I don’t expect him to return. Over the past ten games, the only three Golden Knights to put up 5 shot attempts per night currently reside on three different lines, William Karlsson (L3, $5700), Pavel Dorofeyev (L2, $5100), and Jack Eichel (L1, $8600) each qualify for consideration, but there are zero comfortable stacking options for each. Alex Holtz should be a magnificent addition to the W stable that does nothing but score, as he’s the epitome of this archetype dating back to New Jersey, but there’s just one problem:

He’s not scoring. And when your player card looks like this, that’s a big ol’ “UH OH” from me:

Alex Holtz probably gets a period, maybe a period and a half, to do something before Keegar Kolesar or Tanner Pearson gets a spin with the top line, at which point we’re left hoping. I would only play Holtz in VGK stacks for this reason, as I think Eichel will have to at least be reasonably productive for Holtz to maintain his role. He’s surely earned the top line role with his track record of play dating back to New Jersey (at 5v5, his primary point production per-minute was on par with Jack Hughes!), but he’ll need to score to keep it.

If he’s anything like the rest of this latest crop of Golden Misfits, he’ll seize the opportunity and run with it. Nic Roy should be PP1 without Stone, though I’ve been surprised to not see Barbashev there, and perhaps the loss gives them a chance to use him on PP1. I would like that, as this price is hard to stomach otherwise.

Defensively, a lack of volume has hurt everyone, but Shea Theodore the most. I understand that it’s Anaheim, but man, Vegas feels like another spot of bad chalk that exists only to burn us one way or another.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jack Eichel ($8600), William Karlsson ($5700), Alex Holtz ($2800)

Poor Cutter. Anaheim looks to be without McTavish and Fabbri up front for the time being, and Cutter has been banished to the shadow realm for the time being. Not scoring any goals on 94 attempts this season will do that to a guy.

The only positive is that the injuries will require him to be on the PP2. I think. Cronin is fine, guys, he’s fine.

ANA1 looks great for $13600, and I am interested to see where the field lands on this one. Vegas has been just OK defensively, which combined with just OK offense from ANA (with zero finishing to show for it, and a PP that has been stricken by the Cutter-virus) makes ANA’s team-level matchup look to be in the middle of the slate. With a newly concentrated top-six and Terry-Vatrano being paired together with a pass-first Zegras, they are a clear value stack. Adding Zellweger to this mix, who continues to blossom in a #1 role and is $1000 too cheap, only adds to my interest here.

MOODS’ DUDES: Troy Terry ($4900), Frank Vatrano ($4800), Olen Zellweger ($3900)

Los Angeles (+120) @ Colorado (-142) ||| o6.0 -118

LA1 is new and fun, with Trevor Moore getting a chance alongside Kopitar and Kempe, the eighth player to spend at least a period alongside the Kings most dynamic duo (in theory…). Remarkably, Kempe’s pacing for his best 5v5 season to-date, with 2.3 pts/60 (2.0 last year, lower still in the previous seven years of his career), and his price continues to fall. I don’t understand why, really, but will happily take the discount. I’m not interested in Kopitar, who has a staggeringly poor 9 shots in his last ten games (on just 25 attempts), but with C being a tough position to fill I understand the play, he’s posted 2 shots in each of the past two and has three assists to show for it. Progress?

LA2 gets worse without Moore, hurting Fiala stuff, and LA3 remains very much in play, particularly with Colorado not getting guys back that I was expecting them to today. We only saw a 6v4 PP last game late against CGY, but worth calling out that Laferriere was not on the ice in that situation, for Moore/Byfield instead with the normal PP1 guys. I am not letting that take me off of Laferriere PP1 projection, but it’s at least a possibility here.

The real star of the show here in LA, however, has been Brandt Clarke. There are not enough superlatives to describe the sharpness with which he plays the sport of hockey. He’s a rather clunky player, thanks to a skating technique that was his primary bugaboo in prospect evaluations of the player, but he is clearly able to overcome that at the NHL level due to his unbelievable processing ability and vision. When mixed with his puck skills and rocket of a shot, LA has themselves a #1 offensive defenseman for the next decade and a half. He’s special.

For fantasy, this makes him the 2nd highest scoring defender on the slate, in both a real-life and an expected standpoint, priced as the 7th best D. His offensive gifts are obvious, but the primary reason he’s profiling so well as a fantasy defender is that he’s putting up a shit ton of blocks too, with 25 in his last 10.

Clarke’s not beloved by the fancy stats community just yet, but I would like to enter into evidence Joel Edmundson. This dude sucks.

Playing with bad players isn’t the end of the world (see: blocked shots), but it might explain why sites like HockeyViz and the like aren’t falling over themselves to anoint him as the next chosen one. But as the #8 pick three years ago with an unbelievable offensive toolkit, there’s absolutely no reason to anticipate Clarke will not continue to produce league-winning results from the D position on a nightly basis.

MOODS’ DUDES: Adrian Kempe ($5800), Brandt Clarke ($5400), Quinton Byfield ($3700)

While I won’t be updating the Excel to reflect this, while writing this we got this update: Drouin and Wood will not return to the lineup Wednesday, meaning Joel Kiviranta likely keeps the L2 job over Drouin and Ivan Ivan goes into L3, Tynan and Prishchepov back in for their nightly 4 minutes of work.

In practice, this means one more game before Jared Bednar is able to rein in the minutes on COL1, as MacKinnon is averaging nearly 25 minutes a night in the last four Avalanche games, all of which have been close contests. MacKinnon is $10000, yes, and his shot rate has fallen off a cliff (down to 18 attempts per 60, from ~23-24 the past few seasons), but he’s still playing more than any player in the league and is the conductor of the league’s most ferocious PP at the moment. LA is a strong defensive team, but we just saw COL1 dismantle Carolina at home, so there’s no real argument against COL1. Lehkonen is still far too cheap, we know he rocks, and Rantanen is a guy I’ll keep coming back to over and over and over, even when he hurts me.

I’m long on team “never Devon Toews”, so yeah, don’t play him even if the optos are trying to jam him in with COL1. This is Makar’s world, and we’re all just living in it. You can get away with Clarke over Makar, but I would rather go all the way down to a Sean Walker type than tell you to get burned by Toews’ nightly output of 1 blocked shot, 1 SOG.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mikko Rantanen ($9000), Artturi Lehkonen ($5500)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this breakdown, be sure to subscribe to the Newsletter and to The Morning Skate Podcast, a podcast covering every Tuesday and Thursday NHL DFS slate throughout the season.

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