Oct 8th NHL DFS Slate Breakdown

Tuesday was strange. Chicago got two goals from their second line, Florida got two goals from their bottom six and one from a name-player, the Rangers were shut out, the Pens scored one goal before two empty-netters, and LA-COL has been a bit of a snoozer, with Colorado shutting out the Kings until garbage time, with MacKinnon picking up two assists.

It was a breakeven night for me, thanks to a high stakes min cash and Brock Nelson PP point. We survive and advance.

Please make sure you check out my season preview newsletter!

Let’s dive in to Wednesday’s slate, with $50k up for grabs in the $444 and $20k in the $5. Contests are juiced for the next couple weeks, so let’s run hot early:

The dog app also has a couple nice contests, with a $25 with $500 to first and $7 with $2k to first. This four-game slate locks at 7:00PM EST with one game at 7 and another at 7:30, then closes out with two night games at 10PM.

Reminder that all of the below information is as-of Tuesday (or earlier) practices, and we could get updated news during AM skates. LA is on a back-to-back, but other than Forsberg starting I don’t expect any changes other than a possible Helenius drawing in for Malott or Turcotte. Check your lines and check your goalies!

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Montreal (+140) @ Toronto (-166) ||| o5.5 -135

Montreal takes to the road to face the Leafs. With a lot of hype around the Canadiens, I just want to reset on what we’ve learned about their PP1 to-date. While most of the summer it was assumed that Ivan Demidov would be the PP1 infusion to go with Caufield, Suzuki, Hutson, and Slafkovsky (replacing Laine), Marty St. Louis has decided to go with Zack Bolduc in the bumper, instead.

I think this is excellent news for two reasons:

1. You are clearly maximizing abilities on this PP1. Cole Caufield was not a productive interior player (manning the bumper with Laine out wide), and taking the puck away from Nick Suzuki and putting him on the interior doesn’t seem necessary. Caufield’s shot rate and scoring prowess is phenomenal from out wide. Robert Thomas may be a top five passer in the league, but Nick Suzuki can’t be far behind and with a right-handed center who is puck dominant on the PP1, Bolduc should be a natural fit with Suzuki as a PP conductor. Bolduc is a gifted player with pedigree, and he actually tied for the team lead in PPG last year with Jordan Kyrou (on the other unit), so he’s shown he can be productive as a primary option. I’ve made the argument that Bolduc is going to be this year’s Dylan Holloway in our Fantasy Things podcast, with the irony being that the St. Louis Blues found him expendable because of Holloway.

2. We now have a PP2 in MTL that is worth a damn. I wrote about this in the season preview, but a unit with Demidov, Dobson, and Laine around the top of the formation is incredibly scary, and should give MTL an added boost offensively. We saw in STL, to keep the comparison going, that both PP units were at least somewhat functional and could support strong seasons, so I don’t automatically run away at the sound of a split PP set-up.

The only downside for the Caufield line is of course their PP monopoly will be no more, however with the 5v5 lines set up the way they are, I suspect they’ll remain highly engaged and at 19+ minutes in competitive matchups. Down the stretch (last 40 games), Caufield + Suzuki actually average 10.9 xFPPG each, with Suzuki being slightly more productive, but Suzuki’s work was via points/assists while Caufield is the more reliable shooter. Slafkovsky could take another step, rates wise, which would make him extremely useful, especially on platforms that reward hits (arf arf).

Bolduc is cheap enough that he’s a pure bet on efficiency at $3,200, though his ceiling outcomes all come with PP1 players, I suspect. 13 from him on this slate won’t hurt, and of course one PP assist will not support Suzuki/Caufield’s prices.

Dobson/Demidov/Laine are interesting in very large field contests, as I laid out the case for them getting at least a 55/45 split rather than the 75/25 we saw last year with different personnel in MTL. Their prices make it so that in higher stakes/single entry I’m not interested, but if the production doesn’t follow and the role persists, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Demidov/Dobson combo’s price. $16.2k is too much at the moment.

Demidov + Kapanen is another interesting ministack, as Kapanen had an excellent preseason and had stellar SHL results last year after he was returned to Timra in November, going for a point-per-game and posting extremely strong shot rates. There’s a simple breakdown of his time there, here. With Matthews and McDavid on this slate, as well as Pastrnak, Eichel, Marner, and a few options to spend up at on D (Bouchard, etc.), a punt $2500 C could be viable, and Kapanen does fit the bill. Demidov would make sense to include, but is not necessary. Keep in mind his stats provided are based on 2 NHL games, but he was excellent in the KHL. I’ve argued he’s not Matvei Michkov, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have spike games this season, and the best time to play a prospect is before the field sees it (and having a $2500 C doesn’t hurt!).

I am not opposed to Lane Hutson, but he’s only the 3rd or even 4th man into a MTL stack for $4800. The other defenders are overpriced for what they offer.

MOODS’ DUDES: Cole Caufield ($6900), Zack Bolduc ($3200), Oliver Kapanen ($2500)

One of the most interesting questions heading into this season is whether Auston Matthews will still look like Auston Matthews without Mitch Marner, who for better or worse has been his linemate for the vast majority of his career. My money is on Yes, he still looks like Auston Matthews, but Mitch Marner is good enough that it isn’t a guarantee.

Priced at $8300 against a Montreal club that brings one strong line to the table and three questionable ones (due to lack of experience together), I do suspect Matthews to eat that tougher matchup, even without the services of Marner. It doesn’t matter, however, as $8300 is not expensive enough, it’s just a matter of choosing between Matthews and a similarly priced McDrai. Matthew Knies offers some nice salary relief, but hasn’t yet shown a strong shot rate in the NHL, and replacing Mitch Marner with Matias Maccelli is stylistically quite close. Is Knies going to shoot enough to be a DFS staple?

For $900 more, you can get a bonafide duo in Nylander and Tavares who both had extremely good seasons last year, and will remain PP1 and with Bobby McMann. There’s less you have to believe in to make Tavares/Nylander a strong play, and as an added bonus they should eat the middle six minutes against Montreal. Kirby Dach was brutal last year, so we’ll have to see if the help defensively and on his line can right the ship:

The injury to Scott Laughton pushes Matias Maccelli to L1 and Max Domi back to C, at least to hear Berube describe it, so the in-game risk of Maccelli losing the role feels lesser than it would be otherwise. Max Domi + Nick Robertson is fairly interesting, with Robertson going from an afterthought to a roster lock based on his strong preseason performances. NRob is a core punt play, while Domi is a fringe one.

Morgan Rielly is a player I want to be early to in 2025-26. I believe that the player you see on the far right, who earned DK points at a rate 36% higher than the average defenseman, is closer to who he is than who he was last year (just +16%), almost entirely thanks to Mitch Marner taking his PP1 job at running the point. Now that Rielly can run the PP1, I think he resorts back to the perfectly effective point producer he was before last year. $4400 against Montreal is a gift, especially stacked with one or two (or overstacked with) Toronto PP pieces.

MOODS’ DUDES: Auston Matthews ($8300), John Tavares ($6600), Morgan Rielly ($4400)

Boston (+154) @ Washington (-185) ||| o5.5 -112

Until we see signs otherwise, I am playing David Pastrnak as if he is fully healthy. I’ve discussed his knee tendinitis elsewhere, including in the season preview piece, but him making it through a season is far different than him playing in a game, especially the first one of the year. $8100 is of course close to McDrai and Matthews, but I do suspect there will be a significant ownership discount, partially due to the team total (and matchup with Washington) and also thanks to the chatter around said knee injury.

When healthy, Pastrnak is still among the best, even solely focusing on last year in the new Boston environment (one that was mostly without Lindholm and partially without McAvoy, even!). All four of the top DKPts/60 players last year are active on this slate:

While Morgan Geekie and Elias Lindholm are priced up for their L1 PP1 roles, Charlie McAvoy is not. There’s a bit less translatability between McAvoy’s excellent 21-24 sample and the 24-25 struggles relative to that level, thanks to the Bruins being a completely different (and worse) team than those prior Bruins clubs. However, it’s at least going to be a good way to double down on your Pasta leverage bet by pairing him with McAvoy, seeing as Rielly and Bouchard should get significant ownership in stacks with their forwards.

The other three lines are kind of a joke in Boston. Them waiving/sending down Georgii Merkulov and Matej Blumel is pretty staggering to me, and I don’t see any fringe production in these lines. Even Fraser Minten, the one prospect here who could be worth a damn, doesn’t get a PP role for the likes of Marat Khusnutdinov. Sure. Boston is a one-line team, to no one’s surprise.

MOODS’ DUDES: David Pastrnak ($8100), Charlie McAvoy ($4500)

Washington is one of the most fascinating teams for me in 25-26. I firmly believe that Carbery is a top five coach in the NHL, and I believe that this might be the most talented team top-to-bottom in the Metro, especially if Slavin/K’Andre Miller are at all banged up to start the year. Their depth is incredible, so much so that Ethen Frank was waived, last year’s breakout third-line option.

This team ran through Ovi for the last eleventy billion years, and until we see otherwise I’m not inclined to think that Ovi takes any PP time off, for example. But as time goes on, that is of course more and more possible. Especially with how good lines 2 and 3 should be, and that L4 is their shutdown unit, Ovi falling TOI-wise should be a primary concern this season. He is the best to ever do it, however, and is priced a full $1000 shy of the elite tier on this slate after largely outpacing the entire field last season despite breaking his fucking leg. Deploy Ovi with confidence on Wednesday.

I like Tom Wilson’s price fine, I dislike Strome, John Carlson, and PLD even, however. PLD I would only play in a full WSH2 stack, including Connor McMichael they are $14.1k against Boston depth. PLD + Wilson were significantly better with McMichael than without in 2024-25, and importantly McMichael upped the pace on this line dramatically (the offensive impact was -2% without McMichael to +15% xG generation).

Protas had a great year last year, but he shot the lights out and his shot rate was 4% below average. I’m not ready to buy on him any time soon despite his monster year a year ago.

Ryan Leonard is just $3100, and could be a sneaky Calder candidate this year. The price is right and the matchup makes sense, but I think there are punts I prefer to Leonard alongside Beauvillier and Hendrix Lapierre.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex Ovechkin ($7100), Tom Wilson ($5200), Connor McMichael ($4100)

Calgary (+180) @ Edmonton (-218) ||| o6.5 +114

I didn’t think I would miss Jonathan Huberdeau before the Flames season even started. Nazem Kadri centering Joel Farabee and Adam Klapka is the stuff of nightmares, and while Matvei Gridin with Frost and Coronato looks like a guy who can play a little bit, he’s nothing special (#28 pick in 2024, perfectly good juniors stats a year ago), and I don’t really want to play a $12.5k Flames second line. L3 is not much better, and L4 is where you’ll find Yegor Sharangovich for some reason.

MacKenzie Weegar’s PP job is safe so long as Zayne Parekh is out of the lineup, so I would have no problem playing him, perhaps even solo, as he has a very strong floor/ceiling combination.

Joel Farabee looks to be the Huberdeau replacement as Huberdeau recovers from injury, and I simply cannot in good faith recommend a single Calgary piece that is reliant on Joel Farabee to be competent on the PP.

MOODS’ DUDES: MacKenzie Weegar ($6100)

McDavid and Draisaitl are together. Wait, McDavid and Draisaitl are together?!

With no Zach Hyman to start the year, coach Knoblauch isn’t even wasting time getting to the point, coming out of the gates with Draisaitl at wing. It seems bad to give Frederic an 8-year deal, trade a C prospect (Sam O’Reilly) for a W prospect fresh off winning to Hobey Baker (Isaac Howard), and add not one but two reclamation projects in Andrew Mangiapane and David Tomasek (from the SHL)… and then immediately admit that your wingers are so bad that your MVP-caliber center has to play wing, but I am not Stan Bowman I guess.

Last year, Draisaitl was flat out better than McDavid, full stop. If Draisaitl had played through his late-season injury, he probably wins MVP, and deservingly so. It’s quite difficult to see how playing one of the two could work in this spot, so I’d try to just have $16.5k free to start with the two as a single block. Say, I wonder if DraftKings would let me off the hook and take $12.5 instead…

Evan Bouchard is also distressingly cheap, and we know that - at home especially - he will spend the majority of his TOI with McDrai and is already one of the best fantasy defensemen in the game, so let’s just call it 22.3k. You can definitely afford it!

Trent Frederic, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and David Tomasek are the three options you could look to stack McDraichard with, otherwise you are just “playing cheaper pieces” without much hope of true correlation other than Dustin Wolf laying an egg. My personal preference is Frederic, then Tomasek, then RNH, but they are all fine. I personally don’t see myself getting to any of these three, and as a matter of fact David Tomasek is not actually on the DK slate, despite having spent all of training camp as a rostered player.

Gosh darnit, DK. He had an unbelievable year in the SHL, which is what earned him an NHL look at age 31. Based on information from September 27th, he’s likely to start on the EDM PP1 with Hyman out, but I wouldn’t be super shocked to see Frederic spend time with the top unit too over the next month. They just need someone terrible to stand in front of the goalie, so why overcomplicate things?

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor McDavid ($8500), Leon Draisaitl ($8000), Evan Bouchard ($5800)

Los Angeles (+164) @ Vegas (-198) ||| o5.5 -130

The Kings are playing a back-to-back immediately, which seems a bit rude from a scheduling perspective but fine, I guess. When Friday is completely out of the picture for reasons that are unclear, I guess you can’t just give them one of the 14 Thursday game slots, there’s a lot of competition for those.

I thought they handled themselves fairly well against Colorado in a 4-1 loss. It was a pretty dispiriting offensive output, but the final ten minutes were… spirited, and were spearheaded by one Mr. Brandt Clarke, who for my money was the Kings’ best player for most of the night, and certainly the most involved.

Doughty and Danault did their thing and handled MacKinnon pretty well, though both Necas and Lehkonen got on the board with COL1 out in other matchups, one of which was against the fourth line? Jim Hiller didn’t exactly cover himself in glory last night, I must say.

A relatively down-tempo game turned a bit crazy in the third, so while I don’t think the Kings held an advantage in chances, it was closer than the 4-1 scoreline indicates:

And usage was almost exactly as expected:

I think the Byfield line is just flat out better than the Kopitar line, even with Laferriere not on PP1, and you save $1000 in doing so, too. Laferriere has added PK work to his arsenal, giving the doer-of-stuff even more time to do stuff during. Vegas should be a juggernaut this season, but keep in mind there are defensive question marks on the blue-line, with Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin not exactly tricking anyone into believing they are Jaccob Slavin out on the ice. I like a sprinkle on the O5.5 and the Kings as a significant underdog, and may find myself going back to the LA2 well.

Brandt Clarke at $3900 is interesting but not a core target, as it’s not too far from him up to a Rielly or McAvoy, but if he plays 19-20 minutes all year he’s going to get piles of fantasy points with how he blocks and shoots pucks. His stats from last year don’t look great in the aggregate because of how the season ended with him playing a very reduced role, but for his TOI he’s always been efficient, generating fantasy points at a 46% greater clip than comparable D last season, and +49% rates based on just the first 25 games of his NHL career in years 1 and 2. He looks every bit the part of a fantasy stud.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kevin Fiala ($6000), Brandt Clarke ($3900)

Eichel-Marner is about as cheap as you’re ever going to see it here on Knights’ opening night, totaling $13700 vs. McDrai’s $16500 in a pretty good matchup, all things considered. Anton Forsberg and a tired, traveling Kings team doesn’t scare me. I would suspect Eichel matches up with Kopitar, William Karlsson + Stone take shutdown duties with Byfield-Fiala, and Hertl gets the Danault matchup, but having Karlsson-Stone and Eichel-Marner is a nice problem to have and I wouldn’t bet my life on knowing what exactly Cassidy’s plan is here.

Eichel is a core part of my strategy this season, as I am buying what Marner is selling here and I think Eichel morphs from a playdriving connector into more of a coldblooded finisher this season, which would immediately reverse his downward trend in shot rate experienced last season amidst what was probably the best season of his career overall.

Pavel Dorofeyev at $5700 feels a touch too expensive to play as anything but a PP stacking mate, especially if I believe Hertl’s line goes out against Danault at 5v5. We have seen Cassidy use Shea Theodore pretty exclusively as an Eichel line pair at 5v5, and I am not expecting much to change there, either. Hanifin-Whitecloud doesn’t exactly get me excited, and Lauzon-Korczak is possibly a major liability.

The full PP1 looks to be a 5F set-up, as evidenced by Tuesday’s practice, but Hertl and Stone are simply too expensive to take seriously on this slate where the true studs are so affordable. The full VGK PP1 is about $30k, so stacking it in full seems bad, and I would even say you can probably get away with an Eichel one-off rather than needing Marner.

Theodore’s price at $4900 makes sense, but especially so in lineups where you’re also stacking Eichel-Marner with a $4000 Ivan Barbashev, effectively making it a bet on this game taking off at 5v5.

The final piece I’ll mention is Reilly Smith, as $3300 is a nice tag for his historical ability, and even though he’s continuing to age, outside of a dismal run away from Vegas, he’s shown a shot-first mentality and never before has he played with both Karlsson and Stone, two aggressively-slanted passers. Smith should also be a clear triggerman on the VGK PP2, as well, making him a core value option. Micah’s stuff still thinks Smith is pretty nice with it, even though last year wasn’t a great year statistically:

MOODS’ DUDES: Jack Eichel ($7000), Shea Theodore ($4900), Reilly Smith ($3300)

As always, thanks for reading!

Follow me on X @FakeMoods, and to subscribe to this newsletter. I write ~once a week during the NHL DFS season, previewing DFS slates or reviewing the major contests on DraftKings. You should also subscribe to DJ Mitchell’s YouTube channel, where we stream MSP live (or post right after recording) on Monday and Wednesday nights. I am posting some stuff on my own personal YT channel as well, with a few drafts up at the moment. And join the Discord (DM me if you want in the MSP Discord), if you somehow haven’t already. The Morning Skate Podcast is on iTunes, Sticher, Spotify, and (probably) any other podcast app of your choosing!