Catch You on the Downside - 2025-26 NHL Season Preview

Apparently, I wrote 7,000 words when previewing the 2023-24 season. The less said about 2024-25 (I got burnt out after spending hundreds of hours on the Best Puck Manifestos, didn’t come close to maxing the BPC, couldn’t find it in me to write a season preview, got absolutely murdered for most of the year bailed out by a lucky Christmas NBA slate), the better. I really, really liked the format from that preview, so let’s do it again. 7k+ words, coming right up. The previous post is a fun trip down memory lane. It’s safe to say I’ve had a finger on the pulse of the Los Angeles Kings for a couple years now:

Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, New Jersey, and Vegas all feel especially prescient a couple years later, all things considered.

This year, I am going to go team-by-team once again, giving thoughts on what might possibly go wrong for a certain player, line, or unit that could lead to current Underdog Fantasy ADP being an overvaluation of what production you might expect. If you’re not sure what UD ADP is, don’t worry about it and apply the takes to the DFS lobby. Welcome back, I hope you enjoyed the outdoors this summer. I did no such thing!

Consider this my written 2025-26 NHL Season Preview.

A quick note on the structure: these are all hypotheticals. As are these || and these. If I had a time machine, I surely wouldn’t come back and share my findings with the class. I’ll list the most interesting headline I have in mind, and then discuss it a bit in the paragraphs afterward. That’s where my “takes” will live.

Anaheim Ducks: Joel Quenneville does not have the Meidas Touch

In Florida, Joel Quenneville’s Panthers finished 10th in the East in the COVID-stopped season, then 2nd in the fake 56-game season with the strange divisions, then he was fired after 7 games in his third season (going 7-0-0) due to his involvement in the lack of organizational oversight in Chicago from the Cup years. Andrew Brunette then took the team to the Presidents’ Trophy, while Paul Maurice (yes, that Paul Maurice) has led them to three straight Cup Finals and two consecutive Championships. So, maybe he is not the great coach we think of him as. What if he just so happened to be around when Barkov took his final leap to true super-stardom, and average Joes like Brunette (anyone know where he landed? Asking for a friend in Nashville) or Maurice (the losingest coach in NHL history) got significantly more out of the squad than Coach Q did?

I don’t fully believe this, but it’s absolutely the top concern that would keep the entire operation in Anaheim grounded. It’s not a great start that he seems completely committed to giving Mikael Granlund all of the work possible.

ALSO: Cutter Gauthier’s late-season emergence was a flash-in-the-pan peak month from a middle-six power forward, not an emergent star || Jackson LaCombe secured the bag, but no other Ducks defender takes the next step || Mikael Granlund is Anaheim’s answer to Seattle’s Chandler Stephenson, blocking young talent and producing horrible-quality minutes

Boston Bruins: David Pastrnak’s knee tendinitis hampers his availability and productivity

One of the most concerning soundbites from the past month was David Pastrnak talking about his knee injury. He admitted that he was suffering from knee tendinitis, and that he had to “manage” it as opposed to healing it. This situation sounds a lot like Elias Pettersson, and after how last year went with the J.T. Miller trade, we had better hope the Bruins organization has a strong track record when it comes to handling bullies. Huh.

ALSO: Boston is unable to find Center production (copy-pasted from two years ago! gosh, this stuff is easy) || Matej Blumel and Georgii Merkulov are very good middle-six forwards.. for another organization after being waived post-training camp || Jeremy Swayman’s continued struggles cost him an invite to Italy to be the third goalie on the US Olympic roster

Buffalo Sabres: Yet another trade blows up in the Front Office’s face

The Buffalo Sabres don’t exactly have a great record of headline trades. JJ Peterka for Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan grabbed all sorts of headlines this summer, and was a move that I honestly liked a lot. But after Eichel, Reinhart, and Montour left town and immediately won a Cup (and in Reinhart’s case, two!), coming a couple years after Ryan O’Reilly won the Cup and the Conn Smythe (thankfully Tage was a part of that deal, removing some of the sting from a year that also saw the Bills trade the Mahomes pick!), would anyone be surprised if Kesselring was a dud, Doan is Just A Guy, and Peterka is the final piece of a loaded Utah top six that hits the gas and easily makes the playoffs? I think not.

ALSO: I’ve seen Josh Norris somewhere before… not the fantasy football guy || UPL’s injury lingers into the regular season, leaving Buffalo to fill their starter’s job with Alex Lyon and Alexander Georgiev while their other Alex (Tuch) has one foot out the door and forces a deadline trade to a UFA destination || The Buffalo Bills do not win the Super Bowl

Carolina Hurricanes: Four NHL coaches, polled at random, are not total morons

Nikolaj Ehlers was “criminally underused” by the Winnipeg Jets during his career, so his move to Carolina is a clear chance to rectify that. It appears that Rod Brind’Amour is planning on using Ehlers to the fullest extent, immediately placing him on a stacked L1 (instead of, say, using Seth Jarvis as the 2C) and telling everyone who would listen that Ehlers will also be a key PP1 component.

The rub is this: in Winnipeg, there were not one, not two, not three, but FOUR coaches during Nik Ehlers’ run. None of them showed a particular interest in promoting him to the top line, and he even struggled to maintain a firm grasp on a PP1 job for the majority of his Winnipeg tenure.

{Brief pause so you can try to name all four Winnipeg coaches}

Dave Lowry is the one you forgot, I bet. Paul Maurice, Dave Lowry, Rick Bowness, Scott Arniel. I am a buyer on Ehlers this season, but there are at least four guys who won’t be surprised if it doesn’t work out the way the field is anticipating.

ALSO: Logan Stankoven, a natural winger, can’t play a competent enough 2C to make Jesperi Kotkaniemi obsolete || Alexander Nikishin and K’Andre Miller struggle to assimilate to the Carolina Way || Jaccob Slavin does more saving than the duo of Kochetkov and Andersen

Calgary Flames: Aren’t Goalies just the worst?

{Editor’s note: pick one}

|Calgary could use some top-end talent. Dustin Wolf was too good last year to allow them to get that via the draft and projects to do the same this year.|

|Calgary feels that after their near-miss of the playoffs last year (actually finishing ahead of Montreal in points, in case you haven’t heard that 700 times in season previews), and the addition of Zayne Parekh and internal growth from guys like Matt Coronato and Connor Zary, that they can find the five additional points to be playoff locks. Unfortunately, goaltending is voodoo and Wolf regresses to merely league average, keeping Calgary 15+ points out of the playoff picture.|

ALSO: Nazem Kadri struggles to pay-off a top 100 ADP thanks to a complete dearth of forward talent flanking him || Rasmus Andersson is traded for futures, turning Calgary into MacKenzie Weegar and some dudes || Jonathan Huberdeau was better than you recall last year, with a 5v5 stat line of goals + assists + primary assists + points identical to Sebastian Aho. That you didn’t know this about Calgary’s only $7.1M+ AAV player is.. a problem, and it shows just how low expectations are for Calgary’s $10.5M man

Chicago Blackhawks: Connor Bedard’s extension sees him making less than Jackson LaCombe

Bedard is set to finish his rookie deal the way he started it - surrounded by not a whole lot of talent. His production has been middling, at best, to date, and it’s quite possible that Bedard’s AAV does not start with a 1. If Bedard comes out of the gates slow, he may receive a lesser AAV than Jackson Lacombe’s $9M he just signed for 8 years. Let that one sink in.

 ALSO: Sam Rinzel’s next 82 NHL games go nothing like his first 9 || Ryan Donato and Spencer Knight fail to live up to their perfectly reasonable mid-length extensions with loads of runway given to them || Alex Vlasic can’t find the defensive form that marked his rookie year such a success, struggling on a team surrounded by offensive talent that could really use a defensive ace

Colorado Avalanche: Eric Robinson is not walking through that door

Martin Necas was a key player in a couple of the biggest stories of last year: the first being his early season run of form that had him leading the league a healthy amount of the way into the season in points, and the second being his inclusion as the key piece in the return for Mikko Rantanen.

In a contract year (as he had an extra year on his contract vs. Rantanen), Necas continues the (relative) struggles he faced in Colorado, going for 28 points in 30 games and just 5 points in 7 playoff games.

Necas had 55 points in 49 games at the time of his trade, nearly half of which was spent with Eric Robinson:

Necas had a 4.15 5v5 points/60 mark with Eric Robinson, 3.57 with Aho, and 1.44 with MacKinnon. YIKES. This appears mostly percentages driven, at least at 5v5, as MacKinnon minutes led to a 1.1 ixG/60 mark, superior to his Carolina production, yet only 0.62 goals/60.

ALSO: Gabriel Landeskog’s incredible return to play is soured by the medical uncertainty of his knee cartilage replacement surgery || Victor Olofsson came here to score power play goals and chew bubble gum, and he is all out of bubble gum. Top Six Wingers, beware || Brent Burns continues his downward descent at age 40, forcing Colorado into a tough decision to make a move to upgrade their RHD or avoid internal drama

Columbus Blue Jackets: Dean Evason waits too long to pull the chute on Monahan-Marchenko

Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko were unbelievable together last season, outscoring opponents by a staggering 46-20 at 5v5. I wouldn’t be so sure this repeats itself, however, and the most frustrating part about it could be that the fix could be right in the room. Sean Monahan seems likely to be blocking Adam Fantilli’s emergence as a full-blown superstar in this league. After showcasing an incredible chemistry with Marchenko when Monahan was out last year, it seems as if one of my newfound favorite players could be playing with the wrong center at the top of the CBJ lineup, and I don’t trust Evason to quickly move Monahan down the lineup if it is warranted.

 ALSO: Zach Werenski returns to the mortal plane of humanity, making the Jackets’ uphill climb to the playoffs even more difficult || Jet Greaves has a cool name, but isn’t enough to make Elvis leave the building || The Yegor Chinakhov situation comes to a head and CBJ is forced to move him for pennies on the dollar to avoid poisioning a tight locker room

Dallas Stars: Mikko Rantanen is who he was last year in Dallas

This may surprise you, considering the memorable moments Rantanen produced in the playoffs, scoring a hat trick in the 3rd period of Game 7 to defeat his former teammates in Colorado and then leading off Game 1 vs. Winnipeg with another hat trick, but Mikko only scored 3 goals in the other 16 Stars’ playoff games after scoring only 5 times in 20 regular season games post-trade. 8 goals in 36 games is a sub-20 goal pace, and while having the ability to single-handedly take over a game is rare, it’s also not enough to warrant restructuring an elite team to build around one player if 95% of the time he isn’t making a difference.

I wrote about Rantanen in my player takes article a few weeks ago, so I’ll leave the rest to past me, but Rantanen needs to take a significant step forward from last year’s production in Victory Green if he’s going to pay off a first round fantasy price tag.

ALSO: Wyatt Johnston struggles to make the next step in his development with the likes of Jamie Benn and Colin Blackwell || Miro Heiskanen’s 25-26 looks more like 24-25 than 21-24, where he fell to 5 primary assists in 50 games after 74 in 220 over three seasons || The loss of Pete DeBoer is felt in the standings, even if it is not felt much in the locker room

Detroit Red Wings: Moritz Seider is hampered by Ben Chiarot and the weight of expectations

Even though the forward group looks a whole lot better now that Marco Kasper can play either a top-notch 1LW or 2C, the Detroit top pair could use a lot of work, with Chiarot-Seider still set to play together this season.

Chiarot is quite literally one of the worst players in the league:

With options like Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka quickly rising (and ASP absolutely having the chops to run a PP1, as his SHL stats against men clearly show), Seider could be passed by in the organizational depth chart through no fault of his own if he struggles out of the gate. He’s already miscast as a true #1 (he is not a fantastic PP weapon nor has he really ever been considered one, and conveniently he has the exact same age-19 season in the SHL as ASP to compare against), making his current fantasy positioning as a top-ten defender quite tenuous, as both the role and the offense could wither away, making his rates play worse and worse over time.

ALSO: Patrick Kane has reached the end of the line, taking another step down in production and reaching a point where he really can’t afford further degradation || J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp still have too big a role || Create-A-Player Emmitt Finnie is not the top six answer Detroit needs despite a strong camp for the 2023 6th rounder earning him the 1LW job to start

Edmonton Oilers: Top Line McDrai was a bad sign of things to come

Pairing Draisaitl on the wing with McDavid is usually a sign of desperation in Edmonton, and we’ve yet to see the puck drop on the season. With no Zach Hyman for the first month or so of the season, we’re looking at a significant lack of depth surrounding the top line in Edmonton. The fact that Trent Frederic is the 1RW to start? Even worse.

ALSO: Isaac Howard’s Hobey Baker season is more Jimmy Vesey than Jack Eichel and Macklin Celebrini || Connor Ingram is the year-end starter in waiting after Utah did him a solid and moved him to Edmonton for free || Edmonton fails to unearth a gem from their David Tomasek/Andrew Mangiapane excursion

Florida Panthers: Turns out Sasha Barkov is nothing short of sensational

Easily the worst news of training camp was the loss of Barkov for the entire season. This is real life, and not a hypothetical. It is so obvious, I don’t need to explain it further. But if you want a sense of how highly his own GM thinks about Barkov, check this interview out in full. Asked a question directly about ownership creating an environment to win, Zito immediately turns the question into calling Barkov, essentially, the foundation everything is built upon. What an incredible player and teammate, and he’s gone for the year. There’s no sugarcoating that.

ALSO: Florida remains very good, meaning Matthew Tkachuk’s focus can remain on the Olympics and Playoffs rather than a December return-to-play || The blinking red lights on the dashboard don’t go away just because Bobrovsky was great two postseasons in a row || Carter Verhaeghe can’t pay off a ADP in the 100-range thanks to a lack of PP1 time and a suddenly-weak center room

Los Angeles Kings: The LA Kings took all the wrong lessons, and Corey Perry, from the Edmonton Oilers

It sure seems like the Kings are leaning into a defensive posture, thanks to their decisions such as replacing Jordan Spence with Cody Ceci, and weren’t able to convince Vladislav Gavrikov to return, who instead took a very team-friendly deal in New York for $7Mx7 with the Rangers, while replacing him with Brian Dumoulin.

I’m willing to give Dumoulin some grace, as he was excellent in Seattle and I don’t think anyone could survive the Anaheim environment last year, but Ceci is absolutely egregious. Instead of leaning into their clear speed and transition advantage over a team like Edmonton, which they put on display time and again in their playoff matchup before entering The Shell with the lead and inevitably blowing it, they are backing off of it and adding bad hockey players instead. I just don’t get it, and I fear that the damage may have already been done, even if they do wind up firing Jim Hiller.

ALSO: Brandt Clarke has another season of pedestrian output, putting a significant damper on his outlook in a post-Doughty world || The Anze Kopitar retirement tour has a rocky finish, as the AKs suffer from Andrei Kuzmenko’s seeming inability to sustain results for a full season after immediate flashes of elite play || Darcy Kuemper can’t recreate last year’s perfect storm, with worse d-zone play and a more competent back-up goaltender

Minnesota Wild: Marco Rossi doesn’t have anything more to give

I write that knowing full well that I think Minnesota agrees with that assessment, otherwise last year would have been the perfect opportunity to give Marco the McTavish contract - $7Mx6 and stick around for a while while morphing into a true top-flight center. Instead, Rossi got $5Mx3 and will do it all again in a few years, after three years alongside Kirill Kaprizov presumably.

Rossi is already being left off the PP1, that is already missing Mats Zuccarello, in favor of Vladimir Tarasenko, who just had slightly over half the point production as Rossi last season. Can Kaprizov challenge Nikita Kucherov for the #1 Winger in fantasy if Rossi is merely a 60-point player without goalscoring touch? I’m not too sure, but Kaprizov sure could use a Kuzy.

ALSO: Zeev Buium gets handed too much too quickly, especially with Jonas Brodin missing time to start the season || Joel Eriksson Ek seems like he’ll start the year with neither Boldy nor Kaprizov, and let’s just say those results aren’t great || Jesper Wallstedt makes the push for the crease he was expected to provide two or three years ago, cutting into Gustavsson’s top-tier fantasy goalie workload

Montreal Canadiens: Split PP units portend volatile results week-to-week

Last season, with Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson, and Cole Caufield, the MTL PP scored 9.4 goals per 60. Without those three on the ice, the PP2 scored just 3.73 per 60. That is the difference between a comfortably-top-ten PP and the league’s worst (slightly behind Anaheim). Now, most PP1 vs PP2 could say this, but in Montreal this clearly contributed to a near 75-25 split of PP1 vs. PP2.

In 2025-26, however, Montreal looks to use new acquisition Zack Bolduc in the interior of their PP1 formation, shifting Caufield to the perimeter where he belongs and giving MTL a true bumper threat they lacked last year. This is good news, but it also leaves new faces Ivan Demidov and Noah Dobson to run the PP2 with bonafide weapon Patrik Laine pulling the trigger. That is.. also pretty good, and I could easily see a world where this operates more as a 1A/1B in the 55/45 mold. While I still think this is a net upgrade for PP1, we could see more volatility, especially if Marty St. Louis starts using the hot-hand approach to his PP unit ordering on a game-to-game basis.

ALSO: Lane Hutson can’t parlay his talent into true fantasy relevance, as the shots don’t follow and his size/role limit hits/blocks potential || Caufield, Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky each can’t sustain their individual 13-14% 5v5 Sh%s from a year ago || Sam Montembault is overdrafted for a questionably mid-tier team with a clear back-up option in Jakub Dobes that the organization seems to really like

New Jersey Devils: Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes wrestle for control of the Devils top PP unit, only for a surprise contender to emerge

Is this a Quinn Hughes headline? Is this a Simon Nemec headline (a higher draft pick than either Dougie or Luke!)? Or could it even be Seamus Casey, who turns 22 in January and may be the slickest defenseman on the Devils roster with the puck on his stick?

The Devils have an embarrassment of riches on the blueline, and while they seem to have charted their path forward with a massive Luke Hughes extension in the works, it seems at least conceivable that any one of the other three defensemen could be The Guy after Hughes on the blue line, and they may even see Hughes as a true two-way threat, leaving the primary offensive role up for grabs.

My bags are pretty set with Dougie, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Devils finally dealt from their depth of defenders to shore up their wing group that currently features at least two of Dawson Mercer, Evgenii Dadonov, Ondrej Palat, or Stefan Noesen in the top six.

ALSO: Jesper Bratt’s reliance on point production for fantasy scoring makes him a very Jack Hughes-dependent bet, I’m sure that Hughes guy stays healthy each year || NJ at full strength doesn’t allow enough shot volume for Markstrom to not be perfect and put up good fantasy scores || Timo Meier’s price hasn’t moved enough to account for his lack of PK time and PP2 role, even with elite 5v5 usage and rates. Maybe next year!

Nashville Predators: My irrational excitement for Brady Martin doesn’t fit into Nashville’s long-term plan

I am so sold on Brady Martin centering Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. I also haven’t watched a second of Nashville’s preseason, so I’ll need to keep a close eye on their games. But I really, really think Brady Martin can play, and at just 6’0 174, he probably isn’t as NHL-ready as his stats (and the glowing, intensely physical portions of his scouting reports) indicate he is. I think this situation results in Martin going back to the OHL at some point before the World Juniors and him using this as a learning opportunity… but there’s an alternate universe out there where Martin is the top six center Nashville desperately needs right away, able to transport the puck up and down the ice while also giving Forsberg a linemate that is similarly talented physically and mentally.

ALSO: Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei don’t improve after a season that had them making up the league’s worst free agent class in some time, relative to expectations || Roman Josi’s return from Postural Tachycardia Syndrome is bumpy enough to the point where I google what Postural Tachycardia Syndrome actually is || Juuse Saros declines statistically for the third straight season, jeopardizing his elite workload

New York Islanders: Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal need each other to produce in an otherwise lackluster lineup

With Brock Nelson not returning to the Island in the offseason, instead choosing to re-sign in Colorado, Patrick Roy has decided to move Barzal back to center, rather than keeping him on Horvat’s wing. This decision makes fringe fantasy guys like Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri, and maybe even Jonathan Drouin (fool me three times…) relevant, but it might hurt Horvat, and even Barzal himself, to not have the Isles’ two best forwards together at 5v5.

The PP1 should consist of Horvat, Barzal, and DeAngelo as the primary options, with Drouin and a netfront guy filling the remainder of the ice, but ideally some chemistry forms quick in the NYI top six before fantasy drafters fall too far behind.

ALSO: Matthew Schaefer’s development plan involves a stint at the World Juniors, among other not-playing-82-games ideas || Replacing Noah Dobson with a full season of Tony DeAngelo goes exactly how everyone but Patrick Roy expects it to… terribly || Anthony Duclair has a dead cat bounce in 2025-26 after last year’s fiasco where he was quite literally one of the worst fantasy players in the entire league, and I have none whatsoever after nearly 10% last year

New York Rangers: It’s time to give up on Alexis Lafreniere

Chris Kreider was moved on from in the offseason, following Jacob Trouba to Anaheim. Even with this subtraction, Lafreniere is still not looking at a PP1 role, and it’s safe to say that the 24-years-old-in-four-days former #1 Overall pick no longer has that new prospect smell. If he falls out of favor with new coach Mike Sullivan, don’t be surprised if he’s the latest scapegoat as Chris Drury tries to do everything but sell actual useful players to teams around the league in exchange for futures.

ALSO: Vincent Trocheck’s struggles last year persist and hurt his Olympic candidacy || Gavrikov and Fox don’t mesh well, and Adam Fox spends another year looking for a partner who makes him feel like he did with 22-23 Ryan Lindgren || I must have had a bad dream, I saw Matt Rempe on an NHL power play unit? If we learn anything from Florida, I guess it is “try to injure the opposing goalie at every opportunity”

Ottawa Senators: Linus Ullmark doesn’t crack 50 starts.. again.

Now in his 8th full NHL season, Linus Ullmark has yet to play more than 50 games in a season. When nearly every goalie off the board up to him and for three+ rounds after is a relatively safe bet for 50+ starts, Ullmark already has significant ground to make up just to reach the same opportunity as his peers.

Ullmark is unquestionably a good goalie, but does that last if he stays healthy for an entire year with a true starter’s workload, or does he break down in the playoffs (or worse for us still, the fantasy playoffs)? Is Ottawa good enough to sustain a goalie without a 55-60 start season in his range of outcomes?

ALSO: Jordan Spence fails to take over for an aging, recovering Nick Jensen on Chabot’s right side, either by his play or by coaching incompetence || Brady Tkachuk still hasn’t figured out to score from inside the goalie’s pads || Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson struggle to rekindle their late-season chemistry after Batherson missed the majority of training camp due to injury, which he still has not returned from as-of opening night

Philadelphia Flyers: Rick Tocchet doesn’t have a Quinn Hughes.. or even a Filip Hronek

While Matvei Michkov is one hell of a consolation, it is worth trying to figure out what a Michkov explosion season looks like from the perspective of the Flyers defenders. Does Jamie Drysdale take over the PP1 and move the puck efficiently enough to rack up the points? Can Travis Sanheim put his promise together into a you-had-to-see-it season that entrenches him on the Canadian Olympic roster? Will it be Cam York running the point on the PP1, as one beat writer suggests?

The engine of this team will not come through the blue line, so it appears, which will necessitate some level of adjustment from Tocchet as the responsibility falls on Michkov, Tippett, Konecny, and Zegras to transport the puck and orchestrate the offense. Can he adjust? I think so, but the picture on the puzzle box looks a whole heck of a lot different from the task he faced in Vancouver.

ALSO: Travis Konecny settles into a defensive role with Sean Couturier as Brink-Cates-Foerster sees their offensive playbook expand thanks to their remarkable chemistry || Samuel Ersson can’t build off of the Four Nations performance and a new coaching system to post usable results || Owen Tippett finds himself in another coach’s doghouse for long stretches of the season, unable to maximize his phenomenal fantasy rate stats

Pittsburgh Penguins: The good players get moved and become good players with lesser roles

Crosby, Rakell, Rust, Malkin, Karlsson, Letang are all fantasy relevant or fringe-relevant in large part because there are no better, younger options pushing for the top roles on this team. If they do get traded to “better” situations, I would argue it comes at a significant cost, as I am not convinced anyone but Sid immediately is installed in a contender’s top six, let alone the PP1. The obvious landing spot for Tristan Jarry has dissipated, at least (Edmonton), but any Jarry trade is almost certainly to back up a starter for a playoff team.

I think the Pens’ fantasy ceilings are all contingent on them remaining in Pittsburgh, which could be a tough sell after we get our first few looks at this team.

ALSO: Ville Koivunen can’t build on his success to close last year, failing to gain Dan Muse’s trust the way he did with Mike Sullivan, where he even overtook Malkin on PP1 || Bryan Rust’s injury that has him out to start the year sets him on the path to 2nd line minutes upon his return, rather than top-line Sid, and gives Letang a chance to succeed on the PP1 in a 2D set-up || Ben Kindel (15th pick in 2025) and Phil Tomasino making up an offensively sheltered third line with Tommy Novak but losing out on PP2 time to Justin Brazeau and Anthony Mantha is.. interesting development strategy. I’m sure the guy I’ve never heard of ever is really good at this coaching thing, though.

San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini’s big leap forward is not to be, and there’s one obvious reason for it… he already made it!

Since 2001, there have been eight teenagers who in their rookie season have played at least 50+ games and averaged 14+ 5v5 TOI per night. Macklin Celebrini and Bedard are the only ones to have done this at age 18. Of these eight, four players the next year played LESS than the year before in terms of overall average TOI per game, and when you take the average, the net-effect on the next year is actually negative.

A crucial piece of forecasting rookies, especially good ones, is taking what they’ve shown and extrapolating it to a larger role. You simply can’t do that for Celebrini, because he’s already gotten the larger role. There’s really no precedent for projecting a second-year player to play 21-22 minutes a night, as there are only a few forwards in the entire league who average that! And when you look at the rate stats under the hood, it’s.. fine for fantasy, and he’s a wonderful player but it certainly isn’t an elite profile, and the jump in production the field expects him to take is short-sighted, in my opinion, because they are treating him like any other rookie (think Cutter, Michkov, even Marco Kasper) that didn’t earn this role from day one.

That goes to show what a special talent Macklin is, but consider that this Sharks team still doesn’t project to be any good. There will be no one elevating Celebrini beyond what his statistical profile says he is. Everything could come together all at once, but I’m not sure it’ll be a great fantasy season for Celebrini bulls.

ALSO: Tyler Toffoli and Will Smith, while they can sleep in the same hotel room as Macklin Celebrini, both can’t play with him at 5v5 as right wingers || Yaroslav Askarov doesn’t take total control of the net until February, when the team has already been stripped for parts and he suffers to a weak fantasy finish behind a truly horrendous group || William Eklund fails by virtue of a weak underlying profile of shootiness, mixed with the emerging talent that is Will Smith and friends who do have that propensity in their bags

Seattle Kraken: Jani Nyman was always going to do this

Jani Nyman was a late season revelation for the Kraken, taking advantage of an NHL promotion to play 12 games, mostly alongside Matty Beniers, after a dominant age-20 AHL campaign. Nyman is a massive human with a wicked one timer, and it is only a matter of time before he takes the trigger away from the likes of Jared McCann and Eeli Tolvanen, who simply do not shoot the puck the way he does. After scoring 4 goals in 5 preseason games and making the team out of camp, Nyman is slotted to play on the fourth line.. but beware, Nyman is lurking in the depths to steal a premium PP role.

ALSO: Shane Wright remains buried behind Chandler Stephenson and Matty Beniers, inexplicably playing less TOI than most third liners despite a 5v5 points/60 comparable to that of fantasy second-rounders Jake Guentzel, Macklin Celebrini, Sam Reinhart, and William Nylander || Vince Dunn can’t overcome a declining Adam Larsson, ceding work to Brandon Montour and Jamie Oleksiak at 5v5 || This was not the year Matty Beniers became something other than what he has always been, a perfectly good defensive 3C

St. Louis Blues: Robert Thomas is the true centerpiece of this offense

St. Louis has two of my favorite W picks on the board in Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou. Unfortunately, they are paired together at 5v5 and are away from Robert Thomas on the PP1, the league’s leader in points in the 2nd half of last season. This creates a sizable risk profile, as the PP split is real, and while it was survivable last season, there’s no guarantee that holds in 25-26. Thomas doesn’t offer much by way of fantasy stats, which is why Holloway and Kyrou stand out more, but if they struggle to get points and face the lesser end of a PP split, nobody wins.

It’s quite possible that next year we’re clamoring for Jimmy Snuggerud in drafts, rather than Holloway or Kyrou.

ALSO: Pavel Buchnevich continues his poor performance from last year as one of the only players not to benefit under the new coach despite direct access to Robert Thomas in all situations || Robert Thomas’ new found shot floor (getting him up to a league-average shooter instead of 20% below the average) was merely a blip on the radar, making fantasy scoring extremely difficult to pay off a C23 price tag || St. Louis’ lack of an impact fantasy defenseman and only having a path to shot volume via their wingers makes stacking the Blues quite difficult, and it turns out the new scoring changes to Underdog really reward stacking in 25-26

Tampa Bay Lightning: Brandon Hagel can’t repeat a sensational 5v5 season and doesn’t match a lofty ADP

Brandon Hagel was so good last year that it made him a worse fantasy selection this year. You simply weren’t able to get him at a fair price, and the news is not going his way so far. Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a PP1 staple for all of training camp, and with TB running such a heavy priority toward their first unit, that’s a problem for Hagel’s fantasy viability. Hagel needs to effectively repeat his 2024-25, where he finished 4th in 5v5 points and 9th in 5v5 points/60, to pay off his price tag. I am hopeful Conor Geekie provides a big enough lift for him to improve somewhat, but he had too much go his way last year with an 85% IPP (historically 65-75 at 5v5) and a 103 PDO to make me think that last year is truly repeatable. At best, it is an insignficant slice of his range of outcomes, as 5v5 production is just not enough to sustain elite fantasy value.

ALSO: Victor Hedman starts to decline at age-34 without much offensive support behind him on the Tampa blueline || Tampa’s aging core cannot take advantage of Barkov’s injury, leaving the Atlantic Division wide-open and up for grabs || Jake Guentzel is somehow even more fragile than Brayden Point, thanks to slightly worse rates than Point and the fact that Hagel and Geekie and Bjorkstrand are probably collectively more likely to supplant him on L1 than Cirelli is to replace Point. Guentzel is still (slightly) more expensive

Toronto Maple Leafs: Regular Season Mitch papered over a lot of offensive flaws with this hockey club

I am about to say something controversial: Mitch Marner is really, really good at hockey. Lost in the frustration from many years of lacking playoff production is the simple fact that Marner is a plug and play 100-point winger with Selke-caliber defensive traits. Those are hard to find, and even harder to replace. For a team that has to be dragged kicking and screaming to even give Nicholas Robertson a roster spot, and that looks to be healthy scratching Easton Cowan for opening night, this is a club that loves to throw roadblocks in front of its offensively-gifted players.

That Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews and William Nylander (John Tavares is a bit more of a PP1 merchant, no slight to him) are able to overcome this environment and a lack of quality defenseman-production to produce massively year-over-year is a testament to them, and losing Marner hurts dramatically.

ALSO: Joseph Woll’s absence for personal reasons leaves a sizable hole in the goalie room, not quite filled by Cayden Primeau and Dennis Hildeby || Morgan Rielly can’t regain the form from 2-4 years ago and struggles to produce on a usually-reliable PP1 || Matthew Knies has been projected to take a massive leap without Mitch Marner. Might losing Marner be too big a step back so that even some improvement from him still looks like regression?

Utah Hockey Club: Mammoth is a stupid fucking name

The hockey gods are fickle folks.

Mammoths. One Mammoth. Two Mammoths. The Utah Mammoths. “The Utah Very Big” is not a thing. Why are we doing this?

Hockey Club was so much better.

ALSO: Barrett Hayton as a PP1 staple makes sense to this prognosticator stylistically, but I’ve been wrong before… and there are talented pieces left off in his stead || Last year was written off due to prolonged injuries to the blueline.. but the additions of Nate Schmidt and John Marino (35 games last year) flop, which combined with Kesselring being part of the Peterka trade expose a very poor defense corps || Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek have a significantly worse season than Connor Ingram (now in Edmonton), who the team was treating as their starter heading into last season.

Vancouver Canucks: The best time to trade Elias Pettersson (forward) was yesterday

If Vancouver struggles, Quinn Hughes could decide to use the nuclear option two summers from now. That makes every game, every poor week stretch, all the more painful for Canucks fans. A correlated bet with that failure, then, is the play of Elias Pettersson, who is dealing with a lingering knee injury that some credit for ruining his all-world-level trajectory (not many players are bonafide superstars at 21 and already in decline at 26).

If Petey struggles, his trade value will continue to dwindle, and if the team struggles, Quinn Hughes might force his way out and cause a big-time reset. With JT Miller already on the move last season, it may have been worth their while to collect the bundle of futures and instantly reload their roster, instead they’ll be left in the mushy middle with a broken superstar and not much hope for a easy path out of the muck.

ALSO: Thatcher Demko can’t say healthy, making the Canucks decision to spend $13M on their goalie tandem for the next three years all the more strange, considering Demko was already signed through this season || Evander Kane causes more chaos off the ice and in the press than he does on the ice, making him the latest shiny toy that the front office has spent money on for little return instead of using the role to develop a stud youngster || Kiefer Sherwood’s season for the ages was a complete mirage, but it takes far too long for him to return to the fourth line

Vegas Golden Knights: Mitch Marner runs the PP and forces Moods into the unenviable situation of burning one of his two strongest offseason stances in Shea Theodore and Pavel Dorofeyev

This one… may have already come true. My D1 and W10 (with 20 drafts to go) are effectively competing for one PP slot, with Marner/Eichel/Hertl/Stone seemingly locked in, in Cassidy’s mind. Dorofeyev will begin the season on the shelf, apparently, so Theodore gets first crack. I am a believer in Theodore solely due to his 5v5 time with Eichel and the fact that his defensive role will expand greatly with no Alex Pietrangelo this season, but it’s not a lovely feeling.

I am sufficiently high on Eichel so that I won’t be cratered even if the “wrong” PP1 pieces hit, but it’ll be pretty annoying, all things considered.

ALSO: Adin Hill is drafted as a sure thing, yet Carter Hart could sign and eat into his role in a significant way, while he also has the uncertainty of a post-Pietrangelo defensive group || Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone don’t click, making Dorofeyev-Hertl-Saad more of a 3rd line by usage and keeping Hertl’s ceiling in check as a 100% drafted center || Is it possible Mitch Marner was significantly elevated by the talents of Auston Matthews, and that Matthews is miles ahead of Jack Eichel? We shouldn’t rule that out as a possibility…

Washington Capitals: Dylan Strome has the weakest fantasy profile of perhaps any 1C in the NHL, especially if this is the beginning of the end for Ovi

If Robert Thomas ascended to league-average shot volume and stays there this year4, that leaves Dylan Strome vying with Anze Kopitar, Ryan O’Reilly, and Sean Couturier/Trevor Zegras for the crown of weakest 1C, fantasy-wise. This is not a group you want to live amongst, especially after another step back in his rates last season, and Strome is the only guy drafted in 100% of Best Puck lobbies.

I really like the Caps this year, but I think they do it through depth and volume, making Strome a very thin bet outside of Ovechkin teams.

ALSO: Ryan Leonard is ready for the big-time, but the role doesn’t materialize during the Ovechkin retirement tour || Jakob Chychrun can’t wrestle PP1 away from John Carlson, making his ADP well ahead of Carlson look silly by season’s end || With a perfectly competent back-up in Charlie Lindgren, Logan Thompson starts ~half of the games and is not a Best Puck differencemaker, especially if the team sits on the playoff bubble

Winnipeg Jets: A goalie wins MVP and takes $3500 right out of my pocket, somehow

Hellebuyck was a runaway Vezina winner last year, and for good reason. I won’t recover from the news, a few days before Awards Night, that Hellebuyck was posing for photos in a Winnipeg park with the Hart Trophy. That was a kick in the groin. At least the Blues (barely held on) made the playoffs, or else my two incredible mid-year bets (that I wrote about in this here newsletter!) both losing in dramatic fashion may have been too much to overcome.

I revisit this not to complain (but partially to do that too) but to perhaps make it right. We know that Hellebuyck will be hard-pressed to win another MVP this season. But what if he pulls the same exact thing off once again, and wins the Vezina in a rout? He can’t possibly win the MVP again, but the voters will want to reward Winnipeg. Adam Lowry will miss the start of the year, Jonathan Toews is hurt. Mark Scheifele doesn’t really kill penalties, but do you know who does? Kyle Connor.

Do you know who desperately wants to make Team USA, and was scratched in the final game specifically for having a one-way skillset when they wanted to prioritize defending against Team Canada? Kyle Connor.

I can’t find odds for Kyle Connor to win the Selke trophy.. but if they are out there, I’d bite. A top scoring forward who kills penalties on a sound defensive team with an elite narrative arc and no direct competition from his first-line linemates (Vilardi has sound defensive metrics, but spent 33 seconds on the PK last season)? If WPG1 has a season for the ages, I’ll still manage to lose the Selke race to Anthony freaking Cirelli.

This is the stuff dreams are made of.

ALSO: Next year was finally different from Nikolaj Ehlers.. in a different jersey. Welp || Cole Perfetti’s injury keeps him out long-term, and Winnipeg doesn’t have a secondary option to potentially replace Ehlers on the PP1 || Jonathan Toews was not the 2C answer Winnipeg thought they needed

As always, thanks for reading!

Follow me on X @FakeMoods, and to subscribe to this newsletter. I write ~once a week during the NHL DFS season, previewing DFS slates or reviewing the major contests on DraftKings. You should also subscribe to DJ Mitchell’s YouTube channel, where we drafted Best Puck at least once a week in the offseason (there are also some in the library if you want some background noise!) and stream MSP live (or post right after recording) on Monday and Wednesday nights. I am posting some stuff on my own personal YT channel as well, with a few drafts up at the moment. And join the Discord (DM me if you want in the MSP Discord), if you somehow haven’t already.