Oct. 25th Friday NHL Daily Fantasy Overview

We’re back for a fun little Friday slate. You should be subscribed to The Morning Skate Podcast where we covered the Tuesday and Thursday slates, with some visuals included over on DJ’s YT channel for those slates similar to what I am sharing in this post.

NOTE THAT THIS SLATE ON DRAFTKINGS AND UNDERDOG LOCKS AT 6PM EST, one hour less to enter contests than normal, and on UD we saw overlay on a similarly sized contest the past two nights, so keep tabs on the situation.

Let’s dive in. Check out the Toronto-Montreal writeup from Opening Week for a brief tutorial on the columns in my Excel sheet, posted for each team, though I’ve added some context and additional stats since then. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Ottawa (+110) @ Vegas (-130) ||| o6.0 -120

Nevada Day sees Ottawa take on Vegas in an afternoon clash, and I was immediately surprised to see the 4-2-1 Golden Knights installed as only a -130 favorite at home in an odd-timed game. Dig a bit deeper, neither team seems to be supporting their strong starts (the Senators at 4-2-0, leading the Atlantic by pts %!) with strong underlyings, as both teams are taking on water at 5v5 vs. the competition.

It comes as no surprise, then, that Ottawa is shooting a whopping 36% on the PP, leading the league, and Vegas is 4th at 25% shooting, preposterously high figures that elevate good PP generation to elite results in the early going. Neither team is getting .900 goaltending, though that’s a bit of a misnomer, as as-of this writing, only 11 teams are getting .900 goaltending or better. Yeesh.

Brady Tkachuk drives the bus here and comes in at $8300, a nice discount off $9k+ tags on Eichel and McDavid on the slate, and is one of the most reliable producers in the league. He’s in play, while Stutzle and Amadio profile as thinner bets, Stutzle in particular as a mega-talented player with no floor to speak of.

A much more reliable pairing in the early going comes in the form of Jake Sanderson, who has been priced all the way up to $5800 with a significant amount of peripheral scoring so far to go with 7 points in 6 games.

Beyond that, Giroux’s price has tanked despite scoring 10-15 points in 3 of his last 4 outings, making the second line of Norris-Batherson-Giroux look enticing for just $12700.

Pinto is a GTD, but whether he plays or not, I’m not interested, and same goes for the depth defenders in Ottawa.

MOODS’ DUDES: Brady Tkachuk ($8300), Josh Norris ($4300), Claude Giroux ($3600)

The Jack Attack faces off with an Ottawa squad that appears likely to get Ullmark back in goal, given the AHL-demotion of the then-backup, but it’s possible that Ullmark backs up tonight in preparation for Sunday’s showdown with the Avalanche, and that is worth keeping an eye on.

Eichel started the season strong, but under the surface he’s not been all that impressive. Averaging only 4.57 shot attempts per game, his season has been driven by PP production and point accumulation. At this price tag, you’re going to need to guarantee a shot bonus for me to have any interest, and I don’t see it. His linemates in Stone and Barbashev are similarly expensive, though Eichel’s pass-first tendencies have led to some decent results for Mark Stone, who is net-outproducing Jack and has a better expected-output profile for $3000 less.

Holtz and Schwindt are each $2500 with alright-looking production to-date, Holtz having an especially relevant prospect profile in New Jersey, but the real value comes in on L2 for this team, as well. Hertl is coming off a 42-point night on DraftKings, accumulating 2G, 2A, and 5SOG in a dominating effort. Pavel Dorofeyev has been the main beneficiary of the Olofsson injury, taking over PP1 duties to the tune of 2G, 1A, and 7SOG in the ~2.5 games since Olofsson left injured. For just $3300, Dorofeyev is a priority value option as a triggerman for this PP1.

Shea Theodore missed Tuesday’s game to injury, but is primed to return to PP1 duties fresh off inking a 7-year extension with the Knights. This didn’t age well. Theodore has been awesome to start the year, though his impressive xFPPG mark on a 4-game slate is somehow bested by 5 defenders in Josi, Sanderson, Dobson, Dougie, and Bouchard. At $5600, he’s a good play, but not a priority.

I’ve been disappointed in Hanifin, and I’m writing off my Best Puck exposure, meeting my pre-Vegas take on Hanifin where it belongs. In the garbage. He’s a fantasy cross-out for me until proven otherwise in a PP2 role with no peripherals, while Pietrangelo is an annoying chucker, but probably slightly too expensive for me to consider on this slate.

MOODS’ DUDES: Shea Theodore ($5600), Tomas Hertl ($4800), Pavel Dorofeyev ($3300)

NY Islanders (+105) @ New Jersey (-125) ||| o6.0 -122

I’m going to read this, I swear. But I can’t bring myself to do it right now. The Islanders are a total mess without Duclair, and predictably scored zero goals against the Red Wings, allowing 1 in the process of the worst game of the season (unofficially). Simon Holmstrom to the top line is awful, the PP1 unit featuring Palmieri, Lee, Pageau is worse, and I might just be talked into a Barzal-Nelson-Reilly PP2 stack despite Reilly being a complete dud because what else is there to like here?

MOODS’ DUDES: Brock Nelson ($6100), Anders Lee ($3900)

Well, surely no other team in the NHL could lose to the Detroit Red Wings, right?

Ah. Well, at least Detroit will surely be put back in their place this weekend, right?

Oh no.

Jack Hughes is significantly underpriced at $8200, though my worry is that on a b2b NJ will be unable to push the pace in this one, allowing the Islanders to revert back to their preferred style of defense-first, glacial-paced hockey. While in the early going this was not true of the Islanders, I fundamentally believe that Duclair allowed the top line to do things they were otherwise unable to do, because Simon Holmstrom. This puts a damper on the game as a whole, though at least the big 5 are producing, and Noesen in a depth role with PP1 time looks fine, too.

You just need to keep an eye on pre-game warmups, as changes could come in off of the loss, particularly with that revolving door of a first line that Palat currently holds. I would also not be surprised to see Luke Hughes and/or Brett Pesce sit this one out, as they made their season debut last night and teams typically are loathe to pile on too much, too soon.

The Hischier line seems fairly safe, and good, with people not playing Timo despite the role change truly not mattering to his fantasy potential. Even on PP2, the role is far more suited for him than a net-front grinder, as that is not, and never was, his game. I tried to tell you this last year, Devils.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dougie Hamilton ($6400), Timo Meier ($6300), Dawson Mercer ($3300)

Nashville (-175) @ Chicago (+145) ||| o6.0 -102

I regret to inform you all, but Chicago is Good. They look the part, the underlyings support it, and Bedard’s strange inability to score in the early going is the only reason we aren’t fawning over them as surprise playoff dark horses. What’s interesting here is that the books seem to know this, as a 6.0 total with the under favored seems to imply. Last year, I’m positive this would be a 6.5.

Yes, Chicago is 2-4-1, but I want no part of -175 Nashville on the road with the lineup they’re showing. Stamkos is cheap, the top line is coming down in price, and I’m notoriously Bad At This. Here’s your Jordan Spence // Warren Foegele donkey chalk of the night, so expect three first period goals from the chalk Preds in an otherwise awful game.

MOODS’ DUDES: Filip Forsberg ($7800), Steven Stamkos ($6200)

Chicago shouldn’t get much ownership, which might allow us to take advantage of the latest PP1 news out of Chicago. I’m no Seth Jones fan, but he’s been quite good in the early going for fantasy, in large part due to a top pair, PP1 role. Insert Alex Vlasic, who probably sucks at running a PP1 but is $3100 in a top pair role for as long as Alec Martinez is out. He’s produced just fine this season, with 7.7 xFPPG and 7.2 actual looking better than every cheap defender on the slate, and that was before the PP swap.

Give me some Vlasic magic, and even if his ownership creeps up I would expect him to be a value at virtually any ownership below 30%.

Bedard has been quite good to start the year, including as a play-driver, but from a fantasy standpoint has just one goal on 45 attempts and 2.82 ixGs. That’s not the production we signed up for, though I like him for a bit of regression in this spot against a Nashville team that has struggled defensively (and in net!) thus far.

His linemates are fine, but be wary of their prices moving forward, as a peak Bedard game likely doesn’t leave a ton of fantasy points for his friends given you’re reliant on mainly assists.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor Bedard ($8100), Nick Foligno ($3700), Alex Vlasic ($3100)

Pittsburgh (+180) @ Edmonton (-218) ||| o6.5 -135

The Penguins roll into Edmonton in a bit of internal strife, which is weird because I only watch the spreadsheets and not the games. People are mad at Erik Karlsson for saying he’s been playing great. I could never.

At 5v5, the Pens look like one of the league’s best teams by my chart from above, and are turning 54% of the xGs into 43% of the goals. Main offender Tristan Jarry is at home in Pittsburgh to “work on his game” while the unheralded goaltending duo of Nedeljkovic and Blomqvist appear primed to carry the Pens through into the near-future. I’m always happy to fade a goalie-driven angle (look at the Avalanche!), so I like getting back on the Pens horse here. Malkin remains incredible, with 12.2 xFPPG actually overselling his production despite 11 points in 8 games, and a PP1 stack is incredibly cheap. Mix in a Bunting or Rakell, both of whom look quite good for their salaries, and you’re taking advantage of an Edmonton team that has a pretty embarrassing set-up.

I just don’t think Sid is necessary at $7500 when Malkin is $6000, but I understand the PP1 appeal of Bryan Rust, who leads the team in xFPPG and is just $5900. I’d much rather target the awful second line of Edmonton than the McDavid 5v5 matchup, that Sid is primed to face.

MOODS’ DUDES: Evgeni Malkin ($6000), Bryan Rust ($5900), Rickard Rakell ($3800)

The great Zach Hyman Best Puck Fade of 2024 has gone substantially better than the 2023 variety, so far, and as a result he’s lost his PP1 job. Good thing, too, because ownership would be out of control on a $6600 Hyman in this spot.

The thing is, he’s doing exactly what he did last year, he’s just getting absolutely nothing to show for it. 12.19 xFPPG has turned into a whopping 3.8 actual FPPG, which is downright hilariously bad luck. Take the ownership discount and run, as the “PP2” will still play with McDrai.

Jeff Skinner for $4400 is a similarly interesting option, as he’s been decent to start his Oilers tenure and is underpriced for a PP1 job. The problem is that Henrique and Brown stink out loud, so you’re flipping the table entirely on the preseason outlook, which was that Jeff Skinner, a 5v5 merchant his entire career, would have to do it all at 5v5 with McDavid, as the PP1 job was out of the picture.

What I’m saying, I guess, is that no one knows anything. By the way, Ekholm mixed in with the PP1 with Bouchard, so even that situation is a mess.

Fun team, Edmonton. I hope Jay Woodcroft is doing well, wherever he is.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor McDavid ($9400), Zach Hyman ($6600), Jeff Skinner ($4400)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this breakdown, be sure to subscribe to the Newsletter and to The Morning Skate Podcast, a podcast covering every Tuesday and Thursday NHL DFS slate throughout the season.

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