My DGB Prediction Contest Entry

Over on The Athletic, there are a plethora of professional journalists who I rely upon heavily for breaking news, coach quotes, and the all-important line rushes in pre-game warmups. I truly believe that this is the best place for your dollar as far as access to information and takes, ranging from prospect profiles to free agent targets to putting a finger on the pulse of where the NHL public is on various teams and players.

The one person at The Athletic that I would risk it all for, however, does virtually none of these things that I find so valuable. Yet he’s been intregal to my NHL fandom experience for what has to be 15 years now. If you recognize him, it may be because he’s the guy you noticed over in the corner of the bar, muttering quietly to himself. You think he’s watching something on his phone.. are those 1990s Leafs highlights on grainy video? I think I just saw Wendel Clark flash across the screen.

Sean McIndoe, @DownGoesBrown, is quite possibly the reason I write this silly newsletter. I have read his work since the advent of his blogspot blog and one of my greatest regrets is that I lost the signed copy of his History Of The NHL book years ago and have yet to come across it (I swear the last time I saw it was at DJ’s house…).

In no world should someone be able to effortlessly connect the 2024 All-Star Weekend to Wayne Gretzky in 1983, yet this is the standard he has set for himself. I’m a DGB fanboy, so while everything is a must-read, his hilarious spin on things in the wreckage afterwards is yet another reason to engage in this silly contest for another year.

If you don’t read DGB regularly, or listen to Puck Soup, or go through this catalog of amazing videos (some of which he was not involved with, to be fair) multiple times a year… here’s your push to do so. On to the predictions.

The Contest Link: Enter the 2024 NHL prediction contest that’s so easy it’s almost impossible - The Athletic (nytimes.com)

Answer 10 questions, plus an 11th bonus question, with up to five answers. For each question, each correct answer is worth an additional point. So as you add answers, you gain one point for the initial and two for the second, three for the third, four for the fourth, and five for the fifth, for a total of 15 points available per question. The catch is, you get one answer incorrect, your entire question is worth 0. The ultimate risk/reward game.

The bonus is slightly different, in that if you get it right, that’s 15 points to your entry, in addition to the previous 10. Get it wrong, and your entry is worth 0. A super-ultimate risk-reward question in the ultimate risk/reward game.

Most points wins… nothing. Except the adoration of several thousand readers.

So.. why do it? Well, I find it fun, and I figure it might spark an idea to write about something interesting. The jury remains out on that last part, however. With that, here we go.

First, the questions themselves (head over to The Athletic comments section if you want to post your own, a dedicated reader created a site to tabulate and track the responses out of the comments throughout the year), then my answers, then my breakdown of the answers in a more comprehensive format.

The Questions

1. Name up to five teams that will make the playoffs.

2. Name up to five teams that will not make the playoffs.

3. Name up to five teams that will finish in the middle 16 of the regular-season standings (i.e. between 9th and 24th).

4. Name up to five coaches who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2025, NOT including any of the 12 coaches who were hired after October 1, 2023.

5. Name up to five GMs who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2025, NOT including any of the 11 GMs who were hired after October 1, 2022.

6. Name up to five goaltenders who will start at least 50 games this season.

7. Name up to five rookies who will finish in the top 10 of Calder balloting.

8. Name up to five defensemen who will finish in the top 10 of Norris balloting.

9. Name up to five players who will finish in the top 15 of Hart Trophy voting.

10. Name up to five players who are currently on an NHL roster who will change teams between October 9 and the end of the first day of 2025 free agency (scheduled to be July 1). This means they must be on a new roster via trade, free agency, waivers or whatever else, but does not include retirement, leaving the league entirely or being an unsigned free agent.

Optional bonus question:
For 15 bonus points, name one and only one player who will finish this season with at least 50 goals, but who is not Auston Matthews.

Remember, you don’t have to answer the bonus if you don’t want to, and a wrong answer wipes out your entire entry.

I urge you to create your own entry before reading mine!

My Answers

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1. Leafs, Hurricanes, Canucks, Stars, Devils
2. Sharks, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Red Wings, Flames
3. Utah, Bruins, Islanders, Capitals, Jets
4. Rod Brind'Amour, Rick Tocchet, Bruce Cassidy, Pete DeBoer, Martin St. Louis
5. Kevyn Adams, Pat Verbeek, Kyle Davidson, Tom Fitzgerald, Mike Grier
6. Juuse Saros, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Stuart Skinner, Darcy Kuemper
7. Cutter Gauthier, Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven, Macklin Celebrini, Maxim Tsyplakov
8. Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson
9. Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, David Pastrnak
10. Shea Theodore, Anthony Mantha, Jason Zucker, Vitek Vanecek, Sam Bennett
BONUS: David Pastrnak

My Breakdown

Name up to five teams that will make the playoffs.

1. Leafs, Hurricanes, Canucks, Stars, Devils

Making this on Sunday evening it was easy to write in the Devils, who are off to a 2-0 start and were already likely to be significantly better than last year.

From there, I felt good about the top three in each division between TOR, CAR, and DAL… do I really need to explain those?

In the Pacific Edmonton is a very good bet, but I felt like in a large pool (it’s free, so who really cares…), I would be fine swimming upstream a bit and embracing the Goalies Don’t Matter life with Vancouver. Pettersson rocks, Miller and Quinn are Very Very good, and I love the offseason acquisitions of Jake DeBrusk and Daniel Sprong to rebuild their top six on the fly. I can’t believe I’m going this far in my admiration of the Vancouver Canucks (a team I’ve long been relatively opposed to), but deep down I truly believe that surrounding Quinn Hughes with five trees in Hronek, Soucy, Myers, Desharnais, and Forbort will work. All five are excellent in-zone defenders, and I can live with a flubbed breakout pass once in a while when the team’s identity is so clear to clear out the net-front and give the puck to their forwards who can transition the puck up ice.

 Name up to five teams that will not make the playoffs.

2. Sharks, Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Red Wings, Flames

Related to the above, San Jose and Calgary are the two teams I would be utterly floored to see make the playoffs out West. Even Chicago, you could see Bedard take that Next Step and elevate that team to the 8 seed. That makes me feel quite good about my Pacific division friends (including LA, who I was not brave enough to guarantee would make the playoffs) in a way that I didn’t elsewhere.

Moving over to the East, Columbus was already in an uphill battle, and the devastating death of Johnny Gaudreau leaves this roster, now also without Boone Jenner and Dmitry Voronkov for what appears to be an extended amount of time, without much left over. I think their blueline could be worth watching, and obviously the Adam Fantilli show could roll into town, but the only way CBJ comes close to competitiveness is if Kent Johnson can evolve into a PP maestro in the way Gaudreau was.

In the Atlantic, Montreal and Detroit are my bottom two in what should be a loaded division. It’s going to be nearly impossible to unseat either of Florida and Toronto atop the group, and I like Elias Lindholm enough to think Boston could still get better despite a probable drop-off in net, regardless of how well Swayman acclimates to his new contract. Tampa still has Kucherov, and Ottawa and Buffalo are (probably?) further along in their accumulation of talent than either of Montreal or Detroit, especially with the injury bug having already taken a toll on Montreal.

Name up to five teams that will finish in the middle 16 of the regular-season standings (i.e. between 9th and 24th).

3. Utah, Bruins, Islanders, Capitals, Jets

My selection of teams that I feel like belong right in the middle. I believe too strongly in the systems of LA and MIN that they could finish 8^th or better and I would feel like a donkey, although I suspect that probabilistically speaking they are going to be two of the four most selected teams in this pool.

Utah and WSH feel like up-arrow candidates for me, as both teams sought out, and acquired, legitimate NHL talent in the offseason. Both teams were nowhere close to top 8, and yet got substantially better. Perfect.

Boston and NYI both feel like cases of aging teams with just enough star talent to get by, and adding Winnipeg to this mix gives you strong enough goaltending/defense to really avoid the lower 8.

These five teams feel perfect for my season outlook, as I’m not particularly high on the last three teams relative to the field and feel like I am firmly on the “UTA and WSH are competitive” bandwagons that are of varying sizes (UTA much larger, strangely, given WSH was literally in the playoffs last year).

Name up to five coaches who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2025, NOT including any of the 12 coaches who were hired after October 1, 2023.

4. Rod Brind'Amour, Rick Tocchet, Bruce Cassidy, Pete DeBoer, Martin St. Louis

Here’s a list, with the start date included, I shaded toward my guaranteed playoff teams with an eye on track record and longevity. RBA, Tocchet, and DeBoer don’t have any issues if they make the playoffs (even if Carolina is getting a liiiiittle bit Leafsy with their postseason failure), MSL has I think earned a longer rope and has made good strides with the offensive weapons like Slaf and Caufield, while Cassidy is not going anywhere. Vegas is aggressive, yes, but I believe in Bruce and how beloved he is there even if things go awry, particularly two years removed from a Cup.

Paul Maurice and Jon Cooper came to mind, but there’s a larger risk of them leaving on their own accord, in my estimation, given their age/experience along with perhaps some other guys around the league who might be on better teams that I think are more reliant on playoff performance for job security, a la Sheldon Keefe getting axed last year. If NYR doesn’t make it out of Rd1 I don’t think Laviolette is safe.

Name up to five GMs who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2025, NOT including any of the 11 GMs who were hired after October 1, 2022.

5. Kevyn Adams, Pat Verbeek, Kyle Davidson, Tom Fitzgerald, Mike Grier

Another Wiki list for your reference. Many GMs have burned the collective group a fair amount over the past few years, with the dreaded “promotion” to President and the bestowment of the GM title on the up-and-comer.

Adams is not safe should the Sabres miss the playoffs, but I think he’s a strong favorite to survive even that circumstance, while Verbeek, Grier, and Davidson will get at least another year, no doubt. Fitzgerald is the oddball here, but as a 2020 hire I think he survives the offseason that could come on the heels of a strong playoff run.  

Name up to five goaltenders who will start at least 50 games this season.

6. Juuse Saros, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Stuart Skinner, Darcy Kuemper

I don’t think any of these names are remotely surprising. I don’t have much Helle in Best Puck, but I have a ton of Saros, Skinner, and Kuemper and made my workload arguments (Copley was just sent to the AHL yesterday, for the record, leaving just Rittch in LA) on streams all summer long, while Vasi is another health-removed lock for the number.

Even pre-contract, Swayman was an underdog to hit 50, Sorokin has some Roy uncertainty inherent, and Igor is another fantastic pick I considered alongside Ullmark, while Oett/Bob/Georgiev I think wrap up the top G options in Best Puck; I have very slight workload concerns about the former and strong ones on the latter two.

Name up to five rookies who will finish in the top 10 of Calder balloting.

7. Cutter Gauthier, Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven, Macklin Celebrini, Maxim Tsyplakov

I grabbed the top four names on the board (Lane Hutson is +650 on DK vs. +1100 for Cutter, but I fear that DraftKings simply does not know ball), as I firmly believe this rookie class is beyond anything we’ve seen as far as ready-made NHL talent that is getting unbelievably lucrative roles to start out. This is not Connor Bedard lugging around Kurashev for 82 games, but Cutter gets Leo, Michkov gets Tippett/Konecny and a Tortorella system that already had this PHI team dramatically overperforming, Stankoven gets the West’s best team and a split PP (regardless of whether he lines up on unit 1 or unit 2), and Celebrini joins the worst team, but a lightly-used Tyler Toffoli appears ready to join him for a full season to insulate his transition to the NHL.

Tsyplakov is the only longshot to win, but this felt like a reasonable bet on late news (the last few days of camp have shown him on the Nelson line at 5v5 as well as the PP1, in place of Nelson). He also qualifies for this trophy by literally four days, as a 9/18/98 birthday puts him just within the Sept 15^th cutoff date of his debut season. He’s a fully-formed pro, giving him a high floor for a top 10 finish despite the extremely low odds of winning the trophy outright.

 Name up to five defensemen who will finish in the top 10 of Norris balloting.

8. Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson

I stated how Miro feels like “this year’s guy”, while Makar, Bouchard, and Hughes make up the top three wherever you look. Noah Dobson rules, so while I wanted to bet on Adam Fox, I was finding a lot that confused me in his recent seasons. Let’s live a little on Dobby and friends and go 5/5 anyway when Dobson continues his all-around emergence.

Name up to five players who will finish in the top 15 of Hart Trophy voting.

9. Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, David Pastrnak

Let’s not get too crazy, the top three Best Puck Picks are injury-removed locks to finish in the top 15 of Hart voting. Pastrnak was the no-doubt #4 pick, and I discussed in the third question how I was fairly confident that the Bruins would be Pretty Good. That effort clearly begins and ends on the stick of Pastrnak.

Jack Hughes is getting into the top 15 if the Devils make it back to the playoffs and he plays 70 games, so this is a nice correlation with the rest of my entry, at what are still good odds.

Name up to five players who are currently on an NHL roster who will change teams between October 9 and the end of the first day of 2025 free agency (scheduled to be July 1). This means they must be on a new roster via trade, free agency, waivers or whatever else, but does not include retirement, leaving the league entirely or being an unsigned free agent.

10. Shea Theodore, Anthony Mantha, Jason Zucker, Vitek Vanecek, Sam Bennett

I’m pretty sure last year I went 2/2 with Zucker and Dumba finding new homes when free agency opened this past summer. Since even with that expert knowledge I did not win the contest, I decided to take a larger swing and go 5/5 on all questions. All five of these players are UFAs come the end of the year.

Mantha and Vanecek seem like obvious deals for the deadline, on two teams that frankly have zero incentive to angle toward a playoff spot even if the season starts off well.

Zucker is on a Buffalo team that has an unfathomable amount of talent in the system, with players like Jiri Kulich being blocked (on a fully healthy team) from TOI by the likes of Zucker already. On a one-year deal, I find it extremely unlikely that Buffalo resigns him in the offseason. I had to check that this was true in 2024, but I think come 2025 Zucker should still be viewed favorably enough to get a Day 1 contract come free agency.

Theodore and Bennett both profile to me as the class of the 2025 UFA market.

Theodore in particular is an extremely interesting case, as with Petro on the books for two seasons after this one and Hanifin on his first year of an 8-year deal, that’s over $15M in AAV for a top pair of defenders. Theodore should receive a substantial raise on his $5.2 cap hit in the offseason… if he wants it. VGK will have ~$25M in space to:

· Replace 6 forwards who currently make $7M in total, including RFA deals for Brendan Brisson and Alex Holtz, the former of whom almost certainly gets a 1-2M deal and the latter.. well I’m done making Alex Holtz predictions.

· Replace Theodore and McNabb, who make $8M between them, while re-signing RFA Nicolas Hague who is finishing up a $2.29M bridge deal and is in line for at least a small raise.

· Sign two goalies, as both Hill and Samsonov are set to be UFAs.

With Lukas Cormier coming for the NHL as early as this year, I find it very unlikely that Vegas is leaping at the chance to re-sign Theodore for top UFA dollars given that even a $9M investment leaves them with $16M to fill 10 roster spots, two of which are Starting Goalie and Top-Four Defender.

On the other hand… with Theodore holding his PP1 job, and even requesting a move to his strongside (where he looks to be replacing Alec Martinez on Pietrangelo’s unit) and getting it, I’m far less confident in this take than I was two months ago, where I was reasonably certain that Vegas was packaging Shea and Wild Bill in a Mitch Marner deal. There’s no guarantee that even if Shea smashes his PP1 and top pair minutes usage (as he was on pace to do last year, pre-injury) and warrants that 8-figure AAV, that he doesn’t take $8M or so to stick around in Vegas, much like Samson Reinhart did in Florida. I still believe in his ability to be a true #1 alpha somewhere (Toronto clears a huge chunk of money with JT in his final year, just saying…), and will project him to be the big fish on the UFA market next year.

Sam Bennett will hit UFA on July 1^st as well, and he should fetch a pretty penny as well. While losing Brandon Montour freed up a lot of space for this season, Florida still has to consider their defense group a priority, as their four defensemen signed into 2025 are Gus Forsling, Dmitry Kulikov, Niko Mikkola, and Uvis Balinskis.

The Cats project to have ~$21M in space to fill out at least two, and probably three or four, d slots (including Ekblad, whose $7.5M is set to expire), and are set to lose four forwards to the market as well. The problem is, Carter Verhaeghe will hit UFA as well, and he is a much larger priority with Anton Lundell looking primed to fill the 2C role alongside Matthew Tkachuk, rendering Sam Bennett expendable. I foresee Bennett getting a Chandler Stephenson deal from an NHL also-ran, while Florida prioritizes the middle class of UFA defensemen and a Verhaeghe deal. The only fly in this ointment is that Florida is making a huge goalie investment, with over $14M locked up between Bob and Spencer Knight, meaning that if they wanted to get creative they could probably parlay a strong Spencer Knight season into a decent return and some breathing room to bring back Bennett for a similar tag to Knight’s $4.5M AAV.

For 15 bonus points, name one and only one player who will finish this season with at least 50 goals, but who is not Auston Matthews. If you are incorrect, your entry goes to 0.

Bonus: David Pastrnak

I wrote in the chalk answer of David Pastrnak, I don’t think much explanation is needed. I am betting on Elias Lindholm being a Good NHL Player, a level of center-ness that Pavel Zacha just could not offer. Pasta is very, very good at scoring goals. He trails only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (in the non-Matthews category, who leads the pack by 30 goals!) in goal scoring since the start of the 2021 COVID-delayed season and is not heavily dependent on an all-world power play to sustain his scoring rates into 2024-25. I’ll take it.

I’ll be back on Tuesday night to break down Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate, so long as the contests don’t completely suck. Thanks for reading!