Nov. 8th Friday NHL Slate Breakdown

Happy Friday, everyone. It’s been quite the week, and I look forward to using this space to discuss my thoughts on the biggest development of the week before we get into Friday’s four-game slate. You see, there is a man who arrived in Washington in 2016, had a few good years, and was having the best year of his tenure before COVID-19 struck and marked the beginning of the end of his stay in DC that is now returning to our Nation’s capital.

Welcome back, Lars Eller. What? You couldn’t possibly have thought… that rich guy from Home Alone? I can’t believe it!

What a week.

In case you missed it, earlier this week I broke down a $200K winner in the newsletter and discussed my approach to the loaded Tuesday slate. You should be subscribed to The Morning Skate Podcast where we covered the Tuesday and Thursday slates, with some visuals included over on DJ’s YT channel for those slates similar to what I am sharing in this post.

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see last week’s writeup for a further walkthrough. One additional note - these figures are rolling 10-game so that the most recent game gets more weight than the 2nd game, an effect that cascades all the way through to the 10th game. Meaning, games roll off the sample and also have less influence on the Index stats as we gather new data.

One unique note about this slate - we only have bonafide lines from two teams, Seattle and Anaheim, while two teams are on a back-to-back and there are several meaningful GTDs that we’ll cover as we go. Buckle in for a fun slate that will offer some late news edge!

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Detroit (+154) @ Toronto (-185) ||| o6.5 +105

Detroit starts us off with a bit of a whimper, as even without Auston Matthews as we suspect, Toronto looks good defensively. Detroit has looked rather pathetic all year long despite their 6-5-1 record, though recent games have drawn them closer to “average” at 5v5, and only Dylan Larkin clears 4.3 shot attempts per game over the past 10 games (6.3 for him). At $6600, there almost certainly have to be better options, though the PP1 comes in with a bit of a discount, especially Lucas Raymond ($4400, on L2) and Mo Seider ($5600) having some appeal.

DET3 is wildly inexpensive and correlates on the PP2 as well, though all three have been disappointing to-date. With Toronto sliding Domi up the lineup, L3 takes a hit for Toronto, though probably not one large enough to warrant playing the no-floor, limited ceiling, DET3 trio. Berggren is especially interesting, nonetheless, as someone who consistently put up elite rates in the minors and now plays with the gifted Marco Kasper and an offensively-slanted Tarasenko. Berggren has leveled up his shot rate in limited time this year (~160 minutes, iCF/60 of 16.5, vs. ~11.0 the previous 79 games to start his career the past two years), making his current ice-cold status seem completely unsustainable.

In general, Detroit tends to get more ownership than I am comfortable with, though I certainly don’t expect Larkin and friends to be heavily over-leveraged, either.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mo Seider ($5600), Jonatan Berggren ($2700)

With no Matthews, the offensive burden shifts onto others’ shoulders, with TOR2 looking mighty capable of building upon the spark created by this line’s creation a few games ago:

Toronto’s second line is outscoring opponents 5-2 in 52 minutes, and the xGs are 3.8-1.7. Seems good. For $17800, you gain access to two PP1 players and Pacioretty, who has been quite productive despite a relatively lesser role. He’s worth tacking on to a JT-Nylander lineup.

Marner at $6500 is a tough click given his reliance on assists to make fantasy value, and Knies/Domi haven’t been shooting enough to make me believe they are worth the probable ownership that comes in for a $14400 lineup with two PP1 guys on a team with the largest total on Friday. I prefer TOR2, and have no problem adding Morgan Rielly to the stack, though Tanev-McCabe could outscore Rielly, especially in leading game states, with their high TOI and blocked shot totals. Chris Tanev leads the league in blocked shots, with 35 over his last ten games. Add in a flukey assist or a empty-net point and you’re looking at double digits for a low price, no sweat.

MOODS’ DUDES: William Nylander ($6900), Max Pacioretty ($3800), Chris Tanev ($3600)

Pittsburgh (+140) @ Washington (-166) ||| o6.5 -108

Pittsburgh dominated the Canes from start the finish and walked away with a 5-1 loss and many, many questions.

Adding to the uncertainty is the possibility of a Bryan Rust return, who was hinted at returning during this back-to-back set. If he returns, I would expect to see PIT1 broken up to get Sid and Geno back to their own lines, but even if he remains out it may well change again.

It’s a shame, too, because I really like how the experiment has gone. The lineup has really solidified some solid defensive numbers since the switch, so hopefully Sullivan sees this and doesn’t get too trigger-happy. Given the vibes in Pittsburgh right now, however, I find it more likely than not that something here changes dramatically.

Erik Karlsson talk has also crescendoed with his -3 performance in Carolina. Admittedly, I did not watch a second of this game, and I can imagine the sort of ghastly turnovers he may have made, but he was a 70% xG player for the game and carries a 54% mark on the season, even having his head above water in raw attempts, too. Blame the .882 goaltending behind him.

Clearly, he’s owed a little bit of fantasy regression, as well, with a 10.4 xFP/game mark that is met with little to show for it on the scoresheet, but any defender at this price launching 7 shot attempts a night is a true triple-bonus candidate that cannot be ignored for $5400. If he doesn’t get scratched for the goaltending being horrifying, that is.

MOODS’ DUDES: Sidney Crosby ($8000), Erik Karlsson ($5400), Rickard Rakell ($5200)

Any Washington discussion has to start with Ovi and McMichael, two of the defining stories of the 2024-25 season to-date. Ovechkin has picked up right where he left off last season, as I wrote about in the preseason, and is sustainably producing loads of offense at 5v5 and on the PP. Forgive the visual stretching across the offseason, but the R15G aspect shows how last season ended and what his shot rate has picked up at this season.

The finishing is going to turn down a tick, presumably, but underestimating the greatest goal scorer to ever live is not something I recommend at just $7200 with his recent production.

Connor McMichael, on the other hand, has ascended to star status rapidly, tied for the team lead in goals with Ovi (8) and playing in every situation for Spencer Carbery. A year late, maybe, but the true breakout from Connor McMichael has been a godsend to the Capitals, who only just this week welcomed back Matt Roy, a significant offseason acquisition, and look to improve upon their 9-3-0 start and look to become the 4th team to cross double digit wins: Florida, Winnipeg, and Carolina are the teams that have accomplished that to-date. Pretty good company!

WSH1 checks in at $18100, while WSH2 is $15800, and currently both lines feature two PP1 players. I ever so slightly prefer WSH2, but I really can’t blame anyone for either, and I do like both a lot.

Defensively, Jakob Chychrun could return Friday or Saturday, so keep an eye on his status. I would expect Sandin to be PP2 if he is out, where he has put up some solid floor stats lately (15 blocks in last 4 GP) and checks in at just $3300.

In case it needs to be said, I very much like this game, the environment looks stellar and PIT-WSH needs no introduction, even with PIT on a back-to-back. With a lot of moving pieces up until 7:30PM EST start, it may be worth planning out a few methods of attack depending on what news we do receive.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex Ovechkin ($7200), Connor McMichael ($5000), Rasmus Sandin ($3300)

Vegas (-142) @ Seattle (+120) ||| o6.0 -120

Vegas as a team has been dramatically outproducing their volume, which is a bit of a concern on smaller slates where ownership will naturally filter toward them. Dorofeyev has been excellent filling in for Victor Olofsson, but 6 goals in the last 10 on just 2.8 expected goals is enough to bring some pause. For Dorofeyev specifically, because most of his projectable production comes as a result of being the trigger man across from Eichel and Theodore on the PP1 I’m more comfortable betting on him continuing to beat the odds with the help of those excellent puck movers. Tomas Hertl has been much like the rest of the team and is not shooting much, but is collecting primary assists and has turned 32 shot attempts in his last 10 into 3.65 ixGs, making his recent point production (point-per-game) look sustainable.

Jack Eichel’s price is nudging downward, now at $8500, but he does not look like an $8000-range DFS player this season. The point production has been incredible, but with less than 5 attempts per game and an astronomically high 19.5% on-ice shooting percentage, regression is bound to hit hard, and hit soon, for an overpriced VGK1.

Tonight may not be the night for that, but it seems in poor taste for me to chase that into what should be at least 15-20% ownership.

Noah Hanifin has exploded onto the scene these past two games, totaling 57.6 DK pts to nearly double his yearly total (68.2 in the 11 games before that). The price is a bit too close to Shea Theodore, but should offer a touch of ownership leverage off of Pietrangelo for roughly a similar profile, at least if you were on the “Vegas makes D more fantasy-friendly” train with me this offseason. I’m going to remain off the train I exited roughly 32 minutes before the first of Hanifin’s two explosive games, but have asked the conductor to save room for me and my best puck bags in case this continues for another couple of outings.

MOODS’ DUDES: Tomas Hertl ($5700), Pavel Dorofeyev ($5300)

The Kraken have started rather slow, at 5-8-1, and as a result have not had much consistency in their lineup. Oliver Bjorkstrand is set to return to action after being a healthy scratch last game, in the latest edition of “the coach has no idea what to do to fix this”.

The one glimmer of hope is that SEA1 has remained intact, and are outscoring opponents 7-2 at 5v5. It’s difficult to see that continuing, seeing as they control less than 50% of the attempts, SOG, and xGs, but the fantasy production at least looks sustainable, particularly relative to a few cheaper-than-expected salaries on McCann, Eberle, and Beniers.

Jared McCann of course drives the bus, and a quick look under the hood shows a profile eerily similar to McCanns of the past, but just with a much higher assist/primary assist rate than recent years:

Technically, McCann is on pace for a career high TOI per game (he’s almost at 17 minutes! congrats, Seattle, on giving your best player middle-six minutes for four consecutive years!) with the same level of elite shot generation he’s shown in years past. Most encouragingly, McCann’s last four games have been his largest TOI games of the year, at 18:37, 18:28, 18:28, and 19:57(!!!) after being stuck in the 15-17 minute range for every game up until that point.

At just $5900, McCann is a priority target against a Vegas team that’s looking slightly like a mirage (offensively, at least), because I don’t want to miss out on the opportunity to bet on a Seattle player getting an increased workload.

Let’s move on to our final game before I can consider the words I just put on the page.

MOODS’ DUDES: Brandon Montour ($6300), Jared McCann ($5900), Jordan Eberle ($4600)

Minnesota (-185) @ Anaheim (+154) ||| o6.0 -112

Minnesota on a back-to-back is far from the most exciting spot in the world, but our options are somewhat limited.

The Wild put their foot on the necks of the Sharks, letting them up off the mat thanks to an unbelievable individual effort from Macklin Celebrini to keep the game within arm’s reach, but the Wild have been putting on a defensive clinic all year long. Offensively, Kaprizov has been their guy, but it’ll be quite difficult to stack MIN while keeping access to PIT-WSH, so some caution is warranted, here. Especially with Anaheim’s latest alignment, I am a bit worried that Kaprizov is in line for a 20-point kind of night, rather than a 40, that you simply won’t need at his salary to keep up with the leaders on this slate.

I can’t tell you not to play the $9500 guy that is wrecking souls all around the league, and of course the 40 is in play whenever he suits up, let alone against these Ducks, but the b2b and defensive mindset of the Wild worries me, and his full line checks in at $20700, more if you want to PP stack with either JEEK or Boldy.

If you want a piece of this Wild side, my recommendation is Freddy Gaudreau. At $3100, Gaudreau is a sure bet to finish in the upper-half of TOI as a player in all situations for this squad, and he has a track record of being a perfectly decent player. On a third line with Foligno and Hartman that is outshooting opponents 25-19 and outscoring them 3-1 since Hartman’s return and over the past two-plus seasons has only 82 minutes as a unit together (though a 58% shot share!), you’re not getting special… but you’re getting access to a great matchup, heavy TOI usage, and a decent enough fantasy range of outcomes to fit in other good players around it.

I’ll spin the wheel and put Zuccarello in as the third Moods’ Dude thanks to his L1 PP1 role, but Matt Boldy has been very good, the only issue being that success has him priced up to $8100.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kirill Kaprizov ($9400), Mats Zuccarello ($6300), Frederick Gaudreau ($3100)

The Ducks are not as big an underdog here as you might suspect, in large part due to being at home and MIN being on a b2b (flying from San Jose, it was a late night for the Wild guaranteed).

There are exactly two lines here of relevance, as they’ve saddled Leo with Fabbri and Lundestrom and McTavish with Leason and McGinn on the wings. I think I know what position the Ducks need help at.

ANA1 with Vatrano, Strome, and Terry is just $13700, though it’s worth noting Frank Vatrano of 2024-25 has really struggled to date. A peek under the hood shows roughly equivalent rates to last year, so far, but the finishing has completely deserted him (3% Sh% for a career 9-11% guy) and the TOI is down two minutes a game vs. last season. Troy Terry has been the most productive Ducks forward, and Strome is a perfectly boring way to cap off a stack if you insist.

ANA3, on the other hand, is careening off the rails and headed straight towards the local orphanage slash bunny rescue facility, yet is just $10800. Despite being apart for most of the season to-date, each of these three players is facing ~.942 goaltending(!!) in their first 12 games (at all situations), the only other forward within shouting distance of that mark on the team is Fabbri.

From another perspective, Gauthier is playing alongside one of the most creative players in the sport in Trevor Zegras, is rocking a 27.8 iCF/60 (challenging peak Alex Ovechkin), yet has remained goalless across his 13 games and 87 shot attempts in his career. You simply won’t find another player in the sport who is running as bad as Gauthier. This meant, unfortunately, that a few games ago he lost the PP1 job he’d maintained, though the silver lining here is that ANA3 is now perfectly correlated on the PP2. The jury remains out on whether Gauthier will drive play at the NHL level, but Zegras is unmistakably an offensive dynamo, nestled between names like Dylan Larkin and Robert Thomas in the upper third of the NHL in xGF/60 over the past three seasons.

Of the 27 forwards with more shot attempts than Cutter to-date, all but five of them have at least five goals, with Bedard (3), Tippett (3), Marchand (4), Verhaeghe (4), and Stamkos (4) all have clear indicators that even they have been substantially unlucky.

The matchup is not great, but now is the time to buy back in on the Cutter train if you’ve offboarded, as once the goals start flowing you could see the PP1 role come back into focus, as would the 5v5 ice time.

Olen Zellweger is just so much fun. He is approaching 5 shot attempts per game, adding a block for good measure per night, and has put a firm hold on the PP1 job. His price of $3500 just won’t budge and thus puts him in play on every slate for the sort of upside and floor combination he possesses. Mintyukov is fine, and does correlate with ANA3 on the PP2, but he just doesn’t do it for me in the way Zellweger does.

MOODS’ DUDES: Troy Terry ($4800), Cutter Gauthier ($3900), Olen Zellweger ($3500)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this breakdown, be sure to subscribe to the Newsletter and to The Morning Skate Podcast, a podcast covering every Tuesday and Thursday NHL DFS slate throughout the season.

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