Nov. 20th Wednesday NHL Slate Breakdown

This week’s NHL schedule concludes with a 2-game slate on Friday, so what better way to celebrate barely min-cashing every contest on Tuesday thanks to EDM1 (and absolutely nobody else, I got 13 total DKPts from my five other skaters) than to write up an actually-pretty-decent Wednesday slate of action? Let’s get into things, if you’re new I suggest going back through my archives as you are able, as most of the notes I’ll give are good bits of information to keep in mind and check in on from time to time. After all, I’m somewhat notorious for being a day or two too early on lots of takes.

You should be subscribed to The Morning Skate Podcast where we covered the Tuesday and Thursday slates, with some visuals included over on DJ’s YT channel for those slates similar to what I am sharing in this post.

This five-game slate locks at 7:30 EST with the first two games, SJ-DAL at 8 EST, and then 10PM and 10:30PM starts out West.

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Vegas (+114) @ Toronto (-135) ||| o6.0 -110

Vegas lines are expected to remain as they were against Washington over the weekend, and that leaves us with a Eichel-Dorofeyev duo perfectly correlated that tallied 22 total shot attempts on Sunday. Jack Eichel obliterated his season-high in attempts (12, previous high of 7) while Pavel Dorofeyev chipped in 10 attempts in a losing effort. Volume has been a primary concern for Vegas, so it is fantastic to see some vintage Jack Eichel prior to this matchup with Toronto.

Toronto is incredibly banged up, the latest casualty to IR is Max Domi, and with Auston Matthews still out the matchup is looking better and better for Vegas. It’s worth noting that over the past couple weeks, as injuries have mounted, Toronto’s 5v5 defense has hardly moved an inch.

This is still a good defensive squad and the field might just perpetually underrate Toronto in their own end. I’m a bit worried about the injuries leading to more interest in this game, rather than less, as ultimately I do think I’d prefer both teams to be at full strength, if trying to maximize chances of any stack hitting here.

I’d be fine mixing in a defender with Eichel & Dorofeyev, but ultimately the only depth piece here I’m interested in is Holtz at the dead minimum, who has moved a bit around the lineup but seems right at home with Wild Bill at 5v5 and on the PP.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jack Eichel ($8900), Pavel Dorofeyev ($5400), Alex Holtz ($2500)

This was created prior to Max Domi’s placement on IR, necessitating the elevation of Nikita Grebenkin. Lines are a total question mark as-of this writing, though Pontus Holmberg into the top six seems most likely, with a small possibility of Nylander or Marner shifting to center and allowing Nick Robertson to play in the top six.

As alluded to above, it’s not Toronto’s defense that has suffered in recent games, but rather their offense:

Profiling as one of the weakest teams at 5v5 over the past three weeks, Toronto has gone 5-2-1 in the month of November despite generating less than 2 xGs per 60 and a paltry 1.23 GF/60 at 5v5. A hot power play is to credit for this, and Auston Matthews is not needed for that, apparently. Fortunately for everyone involved, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander have chipped in evenly to carry the team’s PP, with virtually identical xFP and actual FP generation over this stretch. Bobby McMann has come on strong in the past few games with three goals on 17 SOG, and is priced at just $3300, but the true doers here are the three members of the Core Four that remain in North America. Traveling to Germany for treatment on a day-to-day injury is good, right? Asking for my dwindling Best Puck bags….

MOODS’ DUDES: Mitch Marner ($7100), John Tavares ($6900), Bobby McMann ($3300)

Carolina (-230) @ Philadelphia (+190) ||| o6.5 -102

Jordan Martinook has been more productive than Sebastian Aho, yet the Canes are 8-2 over their past 10 games. Martin Necas has maintained a scorching hot pace through 17 games, and the Eric Robinson train continues chugging along, with the former Columbus & Buffalo cast-off now up to 12 points in 17 games after a preposterous 3-point effort on Sunday.

At least in this game there’s no injury news to note, as all players who missed the latest game for each team will remain out. I have been very surprised to see Jack Roslovic’s role hardly budge despite the absence of Seth Jarvis, as he’s picking up fewer minutes than Aho and Svechnikov despite there not being the option to load up that line with Jarvis for some shifts.

With the monstrous total clearly steering attention toward this game, and the core pieces all checking in at peak prices, I can’t say I’m very compelled by this spot. Philly has been perfectly fine, and while CAR has posted weaker xGA numbers than usual, the volume against is still elite. I prefer CAR PP1 stacks, that would include one of Jackson Blake or Shayne Gostisbehere, to alleviate some costs, and in deference to the rainbow sheet would absolutely want to mix in a one-off like Konecny or Michkov to bet on a game environment where Carolina can’t simply sit on a lead. This game could wind up identical to Nov 5th’s matchup that resulted in a 6-4 CAR win, and relative to the other options on the slate it looks like the best pace and best xG environment, the former entirely thanks to Carolina and the latter actually in small part thanks to a decent-looking PHI offense and weaker CAR D than usual.

MOODS’ DUDES: Martin Necas ($7700), Andrei Svechnikov ($7200), Jackson Blake ($3100)

As alluded to earlier, while this is a tough matchup, it seems at least beatable, and Konecny himself scored 36 (2G, 2A) in that 6-4 loss earlier this month. Priced at $7600, it’s difficult to fit TK in with Carolina pieces, but enter Matvei Michkov, who off the back of two healthy scratches has kicked off an excellent four game run:

Over this span, Michkov has racked up 2 goals, 3 assists, and 9 shots, earning his way back up to 20 minutes of ice time on Monday (second on the team only to TK!), while his price has dropped to $4500. Michkov’s main concern for fantasy so far has been shot production, and while it’s ticked up ever so slightly (after going shotless at 5v5 for 6/13 games before the scratches, he’s had 1-2 shots in each of the four games at 5v5 since), it’s still not at the level his overseas profile (and skillset) should mandate.

One quirk in this small sample is that he’s also only at 2 PP shot attempts in this timeframe, so there has been a large swath of ice time where Michkov has played either at 3v3 (such as OT, where he won the game against San Jose) or 4v4, as he has 6 shot attempts at even strength but not 5v5. Riddle me that one.

With this context, however, Michkov goes from pre-scratches having 1/13 games with 4+ shot attempts at even strength to going ¾ with 4+ attempts at even strength after the scratch. Torts is a miracle worker!

This is why you never trust data, my friends. I can make it say whatever I want. It’s Michkov szn, take two.

Otherwise, I don’t trust the lines I’ve shown, though if Michkov plays with Couturier and/or Tippett I would be intrigued in those mid-tier stacks, and Anthony Richard has played well enough to be worth a look as well at $2800. Cheap Cs are going to be needed if gamestacking this spot, so Cates/Poehling stacked with Michkov works too. Basically, wherever Michkov goes, I will follow.

Travis Sanheim is playing over half the game and is PP1 with all of the injuries. He’s a tough click at $5800, but no one in the NHL is getting the opportunity he’s getting (Monday’s TOI of 31:10 was a season-high for a regulation game), and he’ll contend for double bonuses each and every night. Given the rest of the blueline should return shortly, this usage should stick for one more night.

MOODS’ DUDES: Travis Konecny ($7600), Travis Sanheim ($5800), Matvei Michkov ($4500)

San Jose (+350) @ Dallas (-455) ||| o6.0 -120

San Jose takes on a pissed off Dallas team after a 4-2 loss to Anaheim, one that finally realizes that merely showing up isn’t enough. I guess what Duchene is saying is, sometimes if a Dallas Star is half-in, half-out, there will be No Goals and Dallas surely won’t be awarded the Stanley Cup as a result. It’s an interesting theory, however I believe the evidence proves otherwise.

The Stars are loading up the top line with Wyatt, while DAL2 remains unbeatable. The Hintz-Robertson struggles have been well documented, but once again the line is performing admirably on the defensive end of things, and the team-level defense has not been a concern:

I can’t really find a target on the San Jose side I feel strongly about, as Celebrini has been priced up for his solid production and while “the Lund Line” has been excellent, this is about the nut-low matchup. With totally split PP units, I think I’m entirely out, here. I don’t see anything I would consider rostering, even if I was entering 10-15 lineups.

MOODS’ DUDES: Askarov might start? That would be fun. $7000 isn’t great, though, with UPL $300 more.

I suppose “4-2 loss to Anaheim” is emergency enough to break the glass. We’re bringing back DAL1 in an effort to keep this team from becoming entirely dependent on Tyler Seguin. In the year 2024. 2016-me would be so, so thrilled.

Hintz with JRob and Wyatt has been unbelievable, dating back to last year they earn an absurd majority of both the xGs and actual Gs at 5v5 and control over 70% of the shots in 137 minutes. This matchup should be no different.

The problem here is twofold, the PP units could possibly be a mess, with Duchene’s line earning the “PP1” treatment, playing with Miro Heiskanen and thus necessitating this DAL1 goes as PP2 or being broken apart for PP correlation purposes, and that DAL2 has been so good DAL1 might not need to score anyway. In nearly 800 minutes, DAL2 is outscoring their opposition a whopping 50-25. You’ll take that, if you’re DeBoer.

It’s in the long-term best interest of the club to make Robertson work again, but it’s not a particularly pressing matter on this particular night, and we’re paying the exact same price for DAL1 as DAL2 ($17100) despite there being no production to speak of. Hell, I doubt even ownership sides in DAL1’s favor, given the long-term track record of Robertson and Wyatt especially.

If you want to leverage the field, I would say DAL3 is your best bet, as Mavrik Bourque slides into L3 at the minimum, and Logan Stankoven has been the best producer outside of DAL2. At least now you can get a different secondary stack in with the 2 or 3 man stack of DAL3.

Miro Heiskanen has made me look foolish all season, putting up 76 shot attempts and 15 blocks in his past ten games, and trails only Josi and Dahlin in xFP on the slate despite being priced well behind them at D5. Given the matchup, Heiskanen is a priority play, however the unknown and evershifting nature of the PP1 makes stacking with Miro relatively risky. If you hit the right line, there’s no guarantee Miro is hitting his ceiling the way that it seems more probable for a Dahlin or Josi to hit if their best teammates do.

MOODS’ DUDES: Miro Heiskanen ($5900), Wyatt Johnston ($5500), Mavrik Bourque ($2500)

Nashville (-130) @ Seattle (+110) ||| o6.0 +102

On a process standpoint, Nashville looks fine (average indices on both xG and Corsi). On a results standpoint, they look horrendous (-1.64 on the Goal index). Such has been the season for the Predators, who are closer to the league’s basement than the playoff picture at the moment. Pricing doesn’t really match this reality at the top end of things with Forsberg and Josi being as priced up as ever, so in order to really capitalize on a bounce-back you’ll have to mix in a Stamkos for PP correlation or Nyquist for 5v5, as both players are far cheaper than they would be if they were somewhat productive all year long. I have a slight lean toward Nyquist, for salary-saving purposes (allowing you to get a DAL line of your choosing in, for example), but find it hard to look at Nashville beyond being intentionally contrarian.

Seattle sets up for mediocre environments, and we rarely see discounted ownership on the Preds’ star players. I am unenthusiastic about the matchup, so let’s just take a moment to laugh at the worst UFA deal Nashville signed this summer:

Brady Skjei turned out to be the player who was most-cooked at 5v5. Wild stuff, there. It feels absolutely impossible for a Roman Josi pairing to be underwater through 200 minutes, given the other options he’s carried over the past few years. Getting outscored 13-6 on horrific underlyings is not a good way to start a 7×7 contract for a player who is already 30 years old. Woof.

MOODS’ DUDES: Filip Forsberg ($8000), Roman Josi ($7800), Gustav Nyquist ($3200)

Daniel Sprong joins Chandler Stephenson, presumably as a test of whether polar opposites truly do attract. I cannot think of a more dissimilar pair of players, yet I am wildly optimistic that this here might be the first opportunity to see Daniel Sprong get top line minutes. After all, if Chandler Stephenson can suck out loud for 23 minutes a night, it’s at least possible Sprong can get 18, right?

Right?

Please?

For $2600, Sprong profiles excellently, also getting peak PP opportunity based on practice as well, on a unit with Montour and his linemates. While they’ll split time, this is undeniably a bad sign for Jared McCann, who has been the team’s best forward. At his price, in this matchup, I’m not interested anyway, but having Sprong to fall back on is a nice consolation. On a per-minute basis, Sprong actually generates substantially more DKPts, iCF, and P1 (primary points) over a three-year period, and even looking at just last year McCann and Sprong look identical in that respect. I’ll take the plunge the first time we see Sprong with SEA’s empty calorie nothing-player who gets all of the minutes, no thought to it. Someone has to do the things, and Sprong is always willing.

MOODS’ DUDES: Brandon Montour ($6200), Daniel Sprong ($2600)

Buffalo (+130) @ Los Angeles (-155) ||| o6.0 -110

Based on Lindy Ruff’s interview on Buffalo Radio from Tuesday, he sounds optimistic that BOTH Tage and Tuch will play on Wednesday. Great.

Not so great? Buffalo then practiced on Tuesday with Tage centering the top line, and Tuch rotating in and out of drills with Jiri Kulich. Ok, so I guess Tuch is a question mark, but Tage is good to go.

Not so fast! They then moved on to PP work, where Tage was entirely missing from the drills.

So… this is a mess. There’s nothing I can tell you with certainty, but we’ll know by ~2:30 EST what the situation is, hopefully.

Buffalo is very straightforward should Tuch/Tage both play, and that is to just play the top line if anything. Should Tage miss, I would expect Tuch to be on PP1, McLeod to jump to L1, Krebs to L3, and Lafferty to L4. If just Tuch is missing, then I suspect JJ-Tage-Kulich will be the top line, with Kulich also getting Tuch’s PP2 spot.

Isak Rosen is set to make his season debut for the Sabres, and it’s worth calling out that he is a ~22 year old former first rounder who has crushed the AHL. The main problem is, that’s true for virtually every Sabres forward, and Rosen has not looked as impressive as Kulich at that level (though he’s a point-per-game player this season and led the team last year, albeit in 10 more games than Kulich who was 5 points behind), and even guys like JJ and Quinn produced at a higher level in their Rochester stints before becoming NHL regulars. Rosen is very clearly someone who could become a star, but the odds are relatively low, and his shot volume doesn’t seem to make him a “can’t miss” option playing alongside Cozens at the minimum for this slate. If both Tage & Tuch miss and the lines still support him, only then will I get my prospect hat on and just bet on the unknown potential that Rosen offers.

Jacob Bryson remains in the Sabres top four, and he’s been a great punt option for a couple weeks now. He won’t do a ton of anything, but he’s doing a little bit of everything right now, and gets the fourth spot next to the Byram/Dahlin/Power stable of horses.

MOODS’ DUDES: Tage Thompson ($7600 - GTD), JJ Peterka ($5300), Jacob Bryson ($2700)

Brandt Clarke was moved off the PP1 in favor of Quinton Byfield last game, which is not exactly what I meant when I commented that Byfield had some jump and thus I would not be surprised to see him take a PP1 job. That said, we have no idea whether this sticks or not, and it does solidify the role (seemingly) for Alex Laferriere, who continues his outstanding production and underlying profile at a cheap tag. $4800 is a bit tough to swallow, but it’s entirely warranted and you can add a $3800 Byfield to the mix if the 5F PP1 sticks to make it a perfectly correlated ministack.

The Sabres injury situation could leave L3 in a great matchup, should McLeod need to slide up the lineup to replace Tage, so that’s a matchup I’m particularly keen on assessing. Finally, with Alex Turcotte back Warren Foegele held onto a PP2 job, making LA3 have three players with PP run for the first time all season. All three have been productive for their current salaries, and the matchup is not intimidating and could get much better.

I don’t think the top two lines are necessary, considering there are thin third-wheels on each and the prices are only slightly below that of a DAL line.

I will never forgive Jim Hillier for moving Brandt Clarke off the PP1. Inconceivable. What a LOSER. Otherwise, while it looks like Moverare leveled up his production as a min-sal defender, his production is based on one game of 4 blocks with 5 attempts mixed in. Not a bad way to spend $2500, but I prefer Bryson, whose role we know is far more secure, as Moverare is not a guy who has done fantasy-relevant things at any level, NHL or AHL, to make me think his value will persist.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex Laferriere ($4800)

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