Jan 3rd NHL DFS Slate Breakdown

It is 2025. We’re just missing a “part” in there, with the Sabres being the worst team in the NHL, society falling apart around us, a new virus threatening to redefine life (and chicken tenders) as we know it, and a pretty well-balanced NHL slate for the next little while. Well, except that last part, that’s unusual (this is the second day of at least 4 games every day in a stretch of 11 days!)…

2020, part 5.

I assume you know the drill by now, and we’re shorter on time than most writeups thanks to Excel sabotaging me last night and rendering me unable to work (or choose to lose my work in an effort to kickstart things). Let’s dig in.

AM Skates from Friday are not reflected in the below team breakdowns, though if I spot anything I’ll bolden it in the writeup. Stay tuned to the MSP Discord, where you should be getting your game day information anyway, including a finalized version of the below Rainbow Sheet:

This five-game slate locks at 7:00PM EST with one game, features two more at 8:00PM EST, and ends with a 9:00PM and 10:00PM game for our collective enjoyment. Not bad.

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Pittsburgh (+180) @ Florida (-218) ||| o6.5 +102

Two struggling teams (5 wins in their last 10) meet on Friday night, with one on a back-to-back versus a team who spent Thursday resting in wait. The Panthers are -218, with their backup goalie projected to start.

Alrighty then.

Pittsburgh continues to be continually underrated as a perfectly decent team. Florida has had their fair share of struggles, and while they have a high ceiling, their median performance is, well, average.

AM Skate has Kevin Hayes returning on the 3rd line (potentially stirring up PP units, he was PP1 pre-injury) and Owen Pickering in for Ryan Shea on the 3rd pair. Cody Glass slides up to 2RW to replace Beauvillier, who will sit.

The Pens top line should remain PP1 correlated, though Rust was playing with Malkin’s unit (which has EK65…) with Hayes on PP1 a couple weeks ago. Hopefully we get some certainty, but there’s no clear way to stack the Pens at this juncture. Karlsson is going back up the pricing charts, though he and Geno offer some savings off of Sid & friends, but Crosby has been excellent of late, topping this slate in expected FP/game over the past 10 on the back of 6.4 shot attempts per game, a figure behind only Brady Tkachuk and Gus Forsling. Priced at just $7500, Sid is definitely a top play on Friday at perhaps reduced ownership with a lower team total than I would expect against a tired Panthers team.

MOODS’ DUDES: Sidney Crosby ($7500), Erik Karlsson ($5600), Michael Bunting ($4100)

Florida seems poised to change things up after a loss to Carolina, though we’ll get this info prior to lock with the 7PM start. I would be more surprised if the 5v5 lines changed dramatically, though Verhaeghe up to L2 would of course make sense. The PP units are what especially worries me here, as there is absolutely no clean correlation here.

Reinhart was off the top unit on the first PP of the night for the Panthers, but back on for the second. ERod drew the penalty and got the PP1 start, so it doesn’t seem like Reinhart’s absence was injury related or because he was winded. I don’t know what to do there.

The only thing we got for sure on Thursday AM was that Mackie Samoskevich was PP1, which came to fruition, but even for the minimum it’s nearly impossible to play a guy who projects for <6 5v5 minutes the way he does on the fourth line.

If Mackie moves up the lineup in pre-game skate, he’s a top value option as someone with a strong history in the AHL (a shot rate 1.7x the average and point rate 2.3x) and draft pedigree (late first rounder in 2021), who has been shooting at a decent clip per minute in limited NHL action so far this year.

Aaron Ekblad has soaked up a lot of usage himself, which is fine for fantasy, but after being mispriced for so long, $5100 feels about right for a guy whose rates have fallen off over the past two years. Forward-wise, no one cracks even 10 xFP/G, and more concerningly, no one cracks even 9 actual FP/G over the past ten (not counting bonuses). At their respective prices, with the correlations tough to come by cleanly, it’s a messy way to play what should be relatively chalky Cats. No thank you.

MOODS’ DUDES: Aaron Ekblad ($5100), Mackie Samoskevich ($2500)

Montreal (-142) @ Chicago (+120) ||| o6.5 +110

Don’t look now, but Montreal is rounding into form:

The improvement is apparent at both ends of the ice, but the main difference is a reasonably solid defense, miles better than most of the season where they flirted with the league’s worst xGA results.

Offensively, it’s been a Patrik Laine finishing show, where he’s simply scoring goals. That’s what he does, as he doesn’t generate offense and he certainly isn’t making plays, but it does mean the team around him has to scratch and claw their way to fantasy relevance, including Cole Caufield, who has not been priced down according to his new role in the bumper on the PP1, one that has cost him a ton of fantasy relevance.

Lane Hutson has officially supplanted Mike Matheson on the PP1, which sucks because Lane Hutson offers nothing ratew-wise for fantasy and Matheson does, and their prices are converging. Until we see a bit more, it’s hard to feign much interest in Hutson.

MTL depth seems fine, but you’re choosing between three relevant cheap lines (minus Laine), and Laine’s linemates are the thinnest of the cohort. Fine in a pinch, but I don’t think you need salary that badly tonight to do anything more than a one-off of a Gallagher or Heinemen PP2 type.

MOODS’ DUDES: Patrik Laine ($6200)

Only other news so far is Connor Murphy OUT, he’s been dealing with a groin injury, for Wyatt Kaizer.

Chicago, huh. Their ML feels rather aggressive, as this team flat out can’t play. The coaching change has not done anything, and the pace of play for CHI is among the league’s worst. Not the worst idea if you’re out-talented and out-schemed every night, but not great for fantasy:

Colton Dach debuts on a line with Nazar and Teravainen, who I expect to be PP1, but Nazar hasn’t done much in a small sample and Teravainen is a pass-first archetype, so with Dach not on the slate it’s unlikely that this stack matters much. It’s worth watching this line, however, for future notice, particularly if Dach shows something early on, as the PP1 is certainly wide open.

Oddly, Lukas Reichel is the odd man out for Chicago, despite his line being one of the better combos on the entire team. If “he can’t score” is a reason to bench a guy, then I think the Hawks might not be able to ice a full starting lineup…

Speaking of can’t score, Tyler Bertuzzi remains with Connor Bedard, and at least with Bertuzzi we’ve seen Bedard go from a 12 iCF/60 overall in 600 minutes at 5v5 (not very good) to sustaining a 16 iCF/60 with Bertuzzi in now over 100 minutes (which is good. I consider 18 to be Great, and 20 to be Elite, as a rule of thumb). At $7000 however, against a Montreal team that has really turned their season around of late, I’d rather just find the $500 for Sid or look elsewhere.

MOODS’ DUDES: Seth Jones ($5400)

Ottawa (-105) @ St. Louis (-115) ||| o5.5 -120

Personal bias aside, Shane Pinto, should he remain on L1 tonight after the 4-2 defeat vs. Dallas last night, is a top value on this slate at just $3300. Ridly Greig will not steal shot attempts, and Tkachuk is the one needle-mover this team possesses. It is in fact a big deal to go from Cole Reinhardt and Noah Gregor as your linemates to Brady Tkachuk.

I would be surprised if this line changed, though the rest of the roster got torched against Dallas at 5v5, so guys like Adam Gaudette are far from safe from L4 duty. Norris-Giroux and Stutzle-Batherson are interesting low-owned guys, but on a road b2b I would rather just eat a bit more ownership on Pinto, who was sub-10% last night, albeit a much tougher road matchup and a 12-game slate.

With Montgomery, St. Louis is posting some of the worst “pace” metrics in the league, regardless of units (goals, xGs, Corsis), but beggars cannot be choosers on this slate. I am not afraid of eating into the matchup, given the values on both sides. Chabot and Sanderson are each strong defensive options as well, with Chabot offering slightly more SOG+BS equity and Sanderson offering PP1 upside, with each playing well over 20 minutes a night for <$5000.

Did you know Brady Tkachuk grew up in St. Louis???

MOODS’ DUDES: Brady Tkachuk ($8600), Thomas Chabot ($4800), Shane Pinto ($3300)

Justin Faulk is a GTD (Perunovich in if he can’t go), while Sundqvist is out for Mathieu Joseph, which probably elevates Saad to PP2.

Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg have been two massive revelations for St. Louis, who with Jim Montgomery are far more likely than DKSB’s +700 to make the playoffs in my book. Dom has them at only 5%, with Vancouver at .595 being the current pts% cutoff, and St. Louis at .513 is still a hot month away from that, but St. Louis is playing inspired hockey and is hitting all the right notes with me.

Holloway in particular has impressed his way into the top PP unit, replacing Jake Neighbours, and with Schenn centering Holloway-Kyrou I can say with some amount of conviction that Holloway is basically Kyrou now, statistically. That Holloway is $2200 cheaper, with miles better odds offered in the shot prop department, has been a well I have hit up time and again the past week or so to replenish my account balance.

Holloway skates like the wind, hits like a truck, and fires from just about anywhere. What’s not to love?

Buchnevich is oddly cheap at just $4500 vs. Thomas at $6300, but in general I’m disinterested in this line when STL2 costs only a thousand more. Schenn is at least a passable value, whereas Saad’s DFS viability is next to zero.

I don’t have enough time to bitch and moan about Cam Fowler, but just know he’s $3600, has decent xFP for that price since his move to STL (9 games), is on the PP1, but is still Cam Fowler. He’s allergic to shooting, and at ownership, I’m happy to fade him, even on STL stacks, and hope the field is left holding the bag when he gets his 2.8 DKPts as a premier empty-calorie defender for fantasy.

Should Justin Faulk miss, Parayko should play 25+ minutes as the only right-shot defenseman in the lineup who already eats the defensive assignments as it stands. He’s a good option for $5200 in that case.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jordan Kyrou ($6400), Dylan Holloway ($4200)

Anaheim (+350) @ Edmonton (-455) ||| o6.5 -118

Another game, another b2b squad. Anaheim has ripped off three straight wins against quality opponent: Winnipeg, New Jersey, and this same Edmonton squad, though that game was at home and EDM was on a b2b themselves.

The EDM heavy favorites is likely rightly-so, but I am very much enjoying McTavish’s renaissance alongside Gauthier and Fabbri. Dude is back and chucking it on net, totalling 11.2 xFP/G over his last 10 to lead the team in expected output. Once Cutter starts to score (…if?), his actuals might actually line up with that, but for now the team is still heavily reliant on Vatrano and Terry for offense. I don’t think I’m finding $11500 for that pair, but McTavish + Fabbri (or Cutter, if you enjoy pain) for $6500 does make it move. McTavish is +200 for three shots, averaging 5.2 attempts in his last 10, on a line that has fared quite well offensively at 5v5.

We’ll work on defense next season.

There’s nothing to speak of defensively in Anaheim, nope, nothing at all.

MOODS’ DUDES: Troy Terry ($5400), Mason McTavish ($3600)

EDM1 consists of RNH-McDavid-Connor Brown, though after practice Knoblauch basically promised the lines would be a shitshow, as they often are.

Zach Hyman is currently on what I consider to be the fourth line, with Kapanen and Janmark, while EDM2 with Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson continues to crush and Perry-Henrique-Skinner might be the most washed line in the sport.

Draisaitl, by my money, is the league’s current MVP. He has transformed his game into what the mythology surrounding him claimed it to be for the past several years, yet results haven’t supported in the slightest. His season has been nothing short of exemplary, and I’m out of superlatives to describe it so here’s a pretty picture.

He’s made every single linemate better, including McDavid. That never happens, and he’s running away with the Rocket Richard trophy in sustainable fashion.

*Gulp* Leon Draisaitl is who I hoped Auston Matthews would be this season.

Let’s move on.

MOODS’ DUDES: Leon Draisaitl ($8800), Viktor Arvidsson ($3800)

Nashville (-148) @ Vancouver (+124) ||| o5.5 -122

Fresh off a Zach L’Heureux suspension, Nashville is offering up Vinnie Hinostroza on the second line, he of Quite Useful fantasy relevance in past years and 33 points in 26 AHL games on the season. It seems odd that Jankowski keeps PP2 over him, but that’s the only thing keeping my interest at bay. Hinostroza isn’t a likely shot bonus candidate, and while his rates are Fine, 2 sh/gp in the AHL this year further supports only a fringe candidacy for DFS tonight. If you feel frisky, +600 to score a goal is interesting enough for the player.

The top line is doing well, though it’s mostly just driven by percentages and maybe a Forsberg resurgence vs. anything long-term sustainable.

Lastly, the line on this game was -148 around 10:30AM, and at 1:30PM it is -180 in Nashville’s favor. I have very little patience for this Nashville club who is -31 GD and is three points clear of the Hawks for the league basement, so it’s interesting to see the market take such a strong stance on the Preds.

Josi has been doing nothing, which I worry is related to the injury that kept him out for a week and a half in the week leading up to Christmas. He’s a no-go at $7700 with several reasonable mid-tier D options on the docket tonight.

MOODS’ DUDES: Filip Forsberg ($7400), Vinnie Hinostroza ($2500)

Thatcher Demko left mid-period on Thursday night, though the team is calling it back spasms as opposed to something related to his mysterious, ominous knee issue from earlier this season.

That does leave Kevin Lankinen likely to start, coming on in relief last night too, against his old club in the Predators. Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes will remain out, which means Tyler Myers PP1 will persist. Tyler Myers last night played 25 minutes, scored a goal, had 5 shots and 2 blocks, and was the Nucks’ worst defenseman territorially by a landslide:

That’s our chaos giraffe. Erik Brannstrom could return and that would leave some PP1 question open, but Myers in any case should play a bunch of minutes in a new role. He’s far from a guarantee, but if ownership on Cam fucking Fowler is going to be outrageous, Tyler Myers can’t be any worse a play.

Up front, L1 is fully correlated, though Garland’s been the best player process-wise for the past month, and most of that was with EP40 centering his line. I don’t know what to do up front, and given the dramatic odds shift and likely NSH goalie chalk (with VAN priced as a favorite on DK fantasy), I don’t think the field will go anywhere near this spot either. I’d probably condense my bet into a $17.4k L1 PP1 bet with Myers to make it a four-man stack.

MOODS’ DUDES: J.T. Miller ($6100), Tyler Myers ($3300)

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