Jan 24th NHL DFS Slate Breakdown

TGIF. I followed up an excellent week last week with a total dud of a week this week, bricking out in all sorts of fashions like dead-last NHL slates, air balls in the betting space, and losing my beloved Paula Badosa ticket (closed from 80/1 to 10/1, but she lost in the semis early Thursday. Great effort, she’s getting a major in the next couple years). I’m excited to see what the weekend manages to bring.

The only thing more expensive than this week’s Ls are this week’s eggs. Bad news all around.

Time to bear down and get to the bottom of Friday’s NHL action. Reminder that there’s only a few days left to prepare/accumulate tickets for Tuesday’s big $360 NHL GPP on DraftKings (that I will be recapping in this here newsletter, so subscribe!), and there’s sometimes overlay on these ticket contests particularly on SD/turbo slates. Happy hunting!

Let’s dive in:

This four-game slate locks at 7:30PM EST with two games and two more at 8:00PM EST. Dallas is at home, yet is a 6:30 local time start, so keep an eye out for any news 30 mins before you’d otherwise expect it.

Reminder that all of the below information is as-of Thursday night, as this is finalized before or during most teams’ AM skates on Friday. Check your lines and check your goalies!

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Philadelphia (+140) @ NY Islanders (-166) ||| o5.5 -125

We’re starting off the slate with a doozy, as a back-to-back Flyers team heads into Long Island to square off with an Isles team that just lost #1 D Noah Dobson to a week-to-week injury. And the Flyers just lost 6-1 against the Rangers.

It was rather interesting to listen to Torts after the game, where he several times over said that he thought Philly played well (don’t tell the beat reporters that) and that the game was far closer than the scoreboard. That, plus the relative lack of options with Scott Laughton still out and no update as-of this writing, makes me think that the lines we saw will stick as-is. Stay tuned for warmups, because Torts can Torts, but the tea leaves indicate that he was pretty happy with the performance and complimented Igor about ten times in a five minute presser.

All that said, this gives us a $16.3k top line, PP correlated in the second-best matchup based solely on xGs (L10 games) against a weakened NYI blue line, plus a second-line $4500 Michkov who continues to shoot more than he has all season.

He did miss a shift or two last night but in famous last words I am not particularly worried as that line has been phenomenal in a very small sample, and with Torts praising the chance creation over the goals scored, I think he’s picking up on that as well.

The final consideration here is the third line, as Noah Cates has maintained a strong xFP figure and Foerster picks up additional ice time with no Laughton as a relied-upon forward defensively. There are a lot of cheap options available on the Flyers, and even on defense you can likely get away with Drysdale and Risto as well for a punt.

MOODS’ DUDES: Travis Konecny ($6600), Matvei Michkov ($4500), Noah Cates ($3300)

The only real positive in favor of the Isles here is the recent run of play for the top line (35 xFP and actual FP per game as a trio, ~$18k total cost) mixed with the lack of reliable goaltending in Philadelphia, as the matchup looks fairly weak and gets significantly tougher without Noah Dobson to run things from the rear. The PP has been a tirefire all year, so that’s not a concern of mine (any more than it normally is), but the 5v5 results are pretty apparent:

With Dobson, they are fine, without him, they are bad. That’s a pretty tough hill to climb, and with Philly on a b2b I fear that ownership will be far too high on the Isles for my liking.

I would expect that Dennis Cholowski picks up PP1 duties here; but note that last game (when Cholowski was scratched), the post-Dobson PP units had Pulock on PP1 and Pelech on PP2. Both are a tad expensive for my liking, but Cholo is a top punt as in his prior stops he’s been a voluminous shooter for a defenseman and has a surprisingly solid point output this season in limited minutes. We’re probably maxing out at 16-17 minutes here, but a store-brand Gostisbehere for the minimum is always in play, particularly if the field is not projecting PP1 work for Cholowski and we don’t get confirmation (as of Thursday night, we have none).

MOODS’ DUDES: Mathew Barzal ($6100), Dennis Cholowski ($2500)

Vegas (+130) @ Dallas (-155) ||| o5.5 -122

Vegas is coming off an impressive showing in St. Louis, controlling play throughout despite leading for 59:40 of the full 60 minutes against a resurgent Blues side that hasn’t had many struggles like that since hiring Jim Montgomery.

Even more impressive is that this was done without the services of top shut-down center William Karlsson, who is out week-to-week with an injury. Nic Roy slides up into a 3C + PP2 role in his absence, making him a viable punt at a tough C position (I prefer Cates, however, and options from UTA-WPG) based on historical rates that are far stronger than what he’s posted this year, due in part to injuries but also a reduced role with all three of Eichel, Hertl, and Karlsson ahead of him on the C depth chart.

Jack Eichel has been shooting more as-of late and remains an assist-per-game player on the year, a remarkable feat for a team with just one 20-goal scorer (Pavel Dorofeyev) through 48 games. Everything flows through Jack, and he’ll shoulder even more defensive responsibility with Karlsson on the shelf. $8400 is a steep discount, the way he’s been playing. Hertl + Dorofeyev is a more cost-efficient way to approach this matchup, totaling $10.9k tonight, but I prefer a Jack + Theodore + potentially Stone, as Theodore has been turning up lately and remains sub-$6k. It remains to be seen how much of this game we can afford to play considering what’s up to close the slate, but I do like this game in a vacuum.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jack Eichel ($8400), Shea Theodore ($5800), Pavel Dorofeyev ($5500)

Dallas welcomed back Roope Hintz on Tuesday for a tight game which they controlled play but ultimately fell short, 2-1, vs. Carolina. The schedule-makers serve up another tough test with Vegas here, and their pace is looking a fair bit better than I was expecting (Vegas is the reason their offensive matchup looks weak), including a tiny bit of a slide defensively.

Hintz slotted back in to the third line, where he remained in practice on Thursday, and the PP2, though Duchene did switch off the PP1 for him later on in Tuesday’s game, so it’s a bit of a wild card.

One interesting transaction is the recall of Lian Bichsel, as Dallas is clearly looking to bring in their 2022-first rounder to see if he can plug the gaping hole in their defensive lineup before they seek help in the trade market. He’s looked very good to start his NHL career, called up earlier to fill-in due to injury, scoring twice in eight games and going a +2 with sterling defensive marks:

With the loss of Karlsson and the hit that takes to depth pieces in VGK combined with the possible upgrade to the third pair (Dumba has been a problem too, so no telling if it is actually fixed or not), this game gets slightly less interesting, as we know the top-end of both lineups is stellar. Considering the mega-favorites coming up in the final two games, that might swing the needle toward “not interested” for me.

If I had to pick a player, it’s Jason Robertson, who has put the offense on his back for a few weeks now, clearly no longer hampered by his foot injury, and the price has been very slow in adjusting to his resurgence.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jason Robertson ($6300)

Tampa Bay (-230) @ Chicago (+190) ||| o6.5 -102

On the road in Chicago, we have a good sense of why the field will be targeting Tampa. Chicago has been very bad, and are doing their part to tank for the #1 pick. Defensively, they’ve done virtually nothing to stop any opponent, and now Kucherov comes to town dragging this team to relevance. An $8800 price tag is a substantial discount over past slates, and the performance has been transcendent with 16 xFP and actual FP per game over the last 10. He’s a walking double-bonus.

Stacking Tampa is where things get tricky, as the PPs have gone full blender. The only constant is Kucherov, who looks like he’ll start the game alongside Hagel-Cirelli, but the PP unit first over the boards is familiar friends Point-Guentzel plus.. Chaffee and Raddysh? Ok then. Lately, about halfway through the PP those four will switch out for Hagel-Cirelli-Hedman-Paul. The latter seems like a better PP unit, but the trend has been very clear that Point starts.

Meaning, Kucherov stacks are inherently messy, and on a four-game slate with substantial ownership, I think there’s a very good argument to just pick your favorite Tampa pieces, rather than bet on one line or PP unit hitting. If you want to play Kucherov + Point + Hagel + Raddysh, go right on ahead, is what I am saying, even though Point + Hagel in theory have no overlap. Kucherov is the connector keeping this team afloat, and the right combination of players based on results (namely, goals) is not likely to make sense, despite the field generally building that way.

Chaffee is interesting enough at the minimum, and while he’s not a prospect at age 27 and has been terrible on the year for fantasy, he had a strong AHL output last year in both shots and points. The PP role is all you’re getting from him, but against Chicago there are far worse punts you can make, at least until Cooper moves him off the PP because he doesn’t belong on the same ice surface as Nikita Kucherov.

MOODS’ DUDES: Nikita Kucherov ($8800)

In Chicago, the matchup with Tampa is actually not that daunting, particularly if Dickinson is used against the Cirelli-Hagel-Kucherov line. It’s very difficult to look at a $13k Chicago top line that is actually getting top line minutes and not click them in after I called my shot vs. Vegas and was paid off handsomely.

The season has been so rough for Bedard and friends that I am seriously considering a 36 minute sample to support my case, but here it is:

Nazar has looked every bit the part of an NHL player since his promotion, earning 17 minutes in two of the past 3 games, and I think this line is legit good. In three games, against Vegas, Carolina, and Nashville, they’ve scored 4 goals, posted actual-good xGF results (we’ll ignore the defensive end…), and completely unlocked Tyler Bertuzzi, who has 14 shots and 3 goals in these three games. At home, I think Bedard gets fed his minutes in favorable matchups, and the price has dropped like a rock. It’s a rather loosely priced slate, considering how many discounts I’ve mentioned already, but Chicago is still a very reasonable source of value considering how this top line has played.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor Bedard ($6000), Tyler Bertuzzi ($4200), Frank Nazar ($2700)

Utah (+180) @ Winnipeg (-218) ||| o5.5 -122

Utah hits the road after a 4-0 win over the Wild to play Winnipeg for their second game in as many nights. Winnipeg is looking quite strong defensively (even without Adam Lowry) with Samberg back in the mix on D while Utah remains without Mikhail Sergachev, so I can’t in good faith go here. The top line is talented and is slightly above average in total xGF share, but they have 8 5v5 goals on the back of 4 expected goals thanks to an 18% on-ice Sh%. I don’t buy their 5-2 win vs Winnipeg from the weekend that capitalized on a rare off-night from Connor Hellebuyck. For $16200, I’d rather go elsewhere on the slate.

The second line of Maccelli-Hayton-Doan is intriguing, as for less than $10k you’re getting nearly 26 expected fantasy points worth of production that is nearly matched by actual output. Josh Doan with a PP1 role is being used as store-brand Dylan Guenther while Hayton and Maccelli have found instant chemistry despite spending very little time together in past seasons:

Michael Kesselring has shouldered a heavy workload with Sergachev out of the lineup, and has been quite useful for fantasy in that time. He’s always been a shot-first player, so while I don’t love the implication that comes with his ceiling (that UTA1 is likely getting there through the PP), he offers a nice floor for $3400. Playing a PP2 Marino or an $800 more expensive Ian Cole seems counterproductive, the other two beneficiaries TOI-wise with Sergachev out.

MOODS’ DUDES: Barrett Hayton ($3700), Michael Kesselring ($3400)

Winnipeg went through a bit of a rough patch, lost Adam Lowry to injury, and blendered their lines completely ahead of the showdown in Denver. They left with a 3-2 OT win (if you missed the game winner… whew) and probably keep the blender on Friday.

Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele welcome Alex Iafallo to their line (who has been solid in a limited role recently, with PP2 time), while Vilardi teams up with Namestnikov and Ehlers. Rasmus Kupari replaces Adam Lowry in the lineup, situated between Nino and Perfetti, and Mason Appleton is on the fourth line with Barron and Gustafsson. I am pretty skeptical that Iafallo sticks on the top line, but Mason Appleton isn’t likely to supplant him directly after playing just 11 minutes on Wednesday in his return from a month-long injury. So a bet against WPG1 with Iafallo is implicitly a bet on this lineup getting blendered yet again, in a matchup which they are significantly favored to win.

I think you go with full line stack in Winnipeg, with the top line of course being a top target, but L2 also being a reasonable angle to take for $3k cheaper.

I don’t have much interest in defenders here, as Morrissey has been surprisingly weak and Pionk is overpriced for his current role. Kesselring is better than any punt WPG has to offer.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kyle Connor ($9000), Mark Scheifele ($6700), Nikolaj Ehlers ($5600)

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