Jan 10th NHL DFS Slate Breakdown

Happy Friday, everyone. Thursday was a frustrating day, starting with a delayed pod (the YT was broadcast live and available on replay immediately!) thanks to a Streamyard snafu that had me up way too late on Wednesday, and ending with a solid team falling just short of every cash line imaginable thanks to Jack Eichel’s poor performance in a tough night for the Golden Knights. Just one goal fellas, one goal…

Combine that with far too much bet on Harley’s shot prop (it got LOWER after Tuesday’s donkey smash fiesta) in a matchup I hated (as a noted Flyers Respecter) and with line rushes matching Harley with Matt freaking Dumba, and I was a couple better decisions away from a decent night.

Never tout a Ryan McLeod stack as your Top GPP stack on the pod and then fade Ryan McLeod. Lesson learned.

Let’s get into Friday’s slate:

This five-game slate locks at 7:00PM EST with three games, one at 8:00PM EST, and the late hammer at 9:00PM. Can we mix in a :30 start, Gary? Reminder that all of the below information is as-of Thursday night, as this is finalized before or during most teams’ AM skates on Friday. Check your lines and your goalies!

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Chicago (+150) @ Detroit (-180) ||| o5.5 -125

Chicago is not as big an underdog as you’d expect, although the matchup appears pretty dreadful against a Detroit team that is playing at a snail’s pace since their coaching change:

Without much pace in the matchup, the only thing to possibly bet on is talent and against is goaltending. Connor Bedard plus Tyler Bertuzzi has been… interesting. They are shooting 17% in 148 minutes so far this year for a staggering 4.0 GF/60 mark as a duo, but also this is why Tyler Bertuzzi was signed, from a stylistic standpoint, to mesh well with Bedard. It’s hard to claim that the results aren’t intriguing, especially considering that the xGs don’t look much different with or without Bertuzzi for Bedard.

As a side note, I have a belief that short sample shooting % benders tend to deflate xG results. for the simple reason that saves = rebounds, and rebounds tend to create the silly xGF% numbers we see for players like Brady Tkachuk, where finishing talent has very little to do if a puck goes in when you’re jamming a puck into pads. If the first shot goes in, well there’s going to be no xG added to the sequence.

With the top line in mind, Mikheyev remains cheap at $3200, but is far from a necessity with Bertuzzi just $800 more. Connor Bedard has maintained a 15.3 iCF/60 alongside Bertuzzi, a boost on his season-long averages and is looking to make Friday his tenth straight game with a point. I say he does it.

Shutdown defender Moritz Seider is currently being used with Ben Chiarot, further increasing my interest in the Hawks in this spot. Seider with Chiarot offers a +0.6 boost to the opponents xG and goal generation at 5v5 vs. when Seider is paired with any other partner (mostly Simon Edvinsson), and goes from a 38/49 xG/G percentage with Seider to 49/58 % without. It’s a preposterous difference that actually holds relevance on a relative short slate without many premium options.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor Bedard ($7700), Tyler Bertuzzi ($4000)

Detroit looks like an interesting play solely because of how incompetent Chicago is. Chicago has won two games since December 19th, going 2-6 in an eight-game stretch where they gave up a six-spot to each of Calgary, Buffalo, St. Louis, and NY Rangers, not necessarily a murderer’s row of offenses. Their only two wins came in games where they gave up 40 shots (and 4.2 xGs) to Montreal and 36 shots (3.2 xGs) to Colorado.

It goes without saying that Detroit will be a key spot to sort out on Friday, then. Marco Kasper appears set to move into the top six alongside Larkin and Raymond, and Dylan Larkin continues to post amazing numbers for the Red Wings. Larkin carries the slate’s best expected fantasy point per game mark over the last ten (accounting for shot attempts, ixGs, primary assists, and blocked shots to mimic DK scoring) thanks to posting 6.1 shot attempts and a whopping 6.9 ixGs (with five goals) over this stretch. Larkin for just $6400 is one of the slate’s best values, and I am extremely interested to see if the field finds their way to a minimum salary Marco Kasper or not. 2022’s 8th Overall selection has not brought much fantasy goodness to the table, but he has a PP2 role and pedigree.

Mo Seider, despite the clear issues of playing with Ben Chiarot process-wise, holds a PP1 role, has been shooting at a pretty decent clip, and is the slate’s most likely player to post 3+ blocks for the DK bonus. A three category stat-stuffer in an elite matchup is hard to turn down, especially if Bedard offers some cheap blocked shots on his attempts from distance.

DeBrincat and Kane have combined for 11 goals over their last ten games and will team up with Andrew Copp to form a $12.7k line that should see depth matchups for Chicago. It’s an interesting option, and forced to pick one I side Kane, who is $800 cheaper and has trended upward on his shot rate as the season has progressed. It’s possible that Kane continues this level of play down the stretch and gives Detroit a legitimate 1-2 punch at the top of their lineup with Larkin playing at such a high level.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Larkin ($6400), Mo Seider ($5700), Patrick Kane ($4600)

Montreal (+170) @ Washington (-205) ||| o5.5 -135

Patrik Laine will remain out, due to a nebulous illness that has kept him out of action for 10 days and counting, continuing the condensed version of the Montreal offense that has produced a usable Cole Caufield again after a month or so in the wilderness.

In Laine’s absence, Cole Caufield has scored in all four games, ironically all at 5v5 considering Laine’s gravity was largely impacting Caufield’s role on the PP, but is also indicative of the condensed minutes that MTL faces with Michael Pezzetta on the second line projecting for only a few minutes each night. This effectively means Suzuki and Caufield will double-shift quite regularly, mixing in with Dach and Newhook, and boosts both players substantially. Given Caufield’s status as an otherworldly goalscorer, I plan to capitalize on Caufield’s improved role until Laine’s return.

The matchup itself is worth considering, as this is a clear difference from the market when looking at trends. Montreal looks like they are playing unbelievable hockey as of late, and they’ve gotten legitimate results for it, picking off road wins in Florida, Tampa, Vegas, and Colorado over the past two weeks and posting incredible 5v5 numbers in the process:

Marty St. Louis has his team playing some great hockey as of late. Washington is looking very susceptible, and if the goaltending cools off they could allow goals in bushels. It’s a risky bet, but I think the eye-test matches the Rainbow Sheet on the Habs, so I am all-in on the squad.

Some depth options to consider are Gallagher (obviously), Armia (elevated to a PP2 role with no Laine, leads forwards not-named-Caufield in xFPPG L10), and Heineman (dude has a cannon, is shooting and producing in limited minutes).

On the back end, Lane Hutson has blossomed into a legitimate offensive force with the puck, and his pairing with Matheson has looked very good. He’s up at 44 shot attempts and 10 blocks over his last ten games, which isn’t elite but is more than good enough for $4300 and PP1 in a matchup I am happy to bet on. It could make sense to spend the $900 to get up to Matheson, given his direct 5v5 exposure and team-leading minutes, for the extra block and shot attempt per game.

MOODS’ DUDES: Cole Caufield ($7300), Lane Hutson ($4300), Emil Heineman ($2500)

The Caps are coming off a scintillating 2-1 win which saw the reuniting of McMichael-Dubois-Wilson, who check in at 15.6k.

It’s more of the same for WSH2, who have posted great offensive results all season:

Defensively, they are very up-tempo and are actually out-Corsied in these 240 minutes, but are up in both xGs and actual goals all the same. While Ovi and the chase are completely mesmerizing, I will ride this WSH2 horse until they force me out, given WSH1 checks in at $19k and I don’t trust either of Strome or Protas more than I do PLD.

McMichael is the final player I want to spotlight, as he was the early season revelation and has cooled off dramatically, with just 6.6 xFP and 6.5 FP per game over the last ten. He’s a fringe third option to complete the stack, especially since we know how effective he can be at 5v5 with PLD and Wilson. His recent slide in production largely coincides with him being booted off the PP1 for MORE CHYCHRUN BOMBS, a strange decision that I do not support despite my long-time love affair with Chychrun’s fantasy game. Connor McMichael is simply more useful on the PP1, as he’s far more creative and capable of setting up Ovechkin.

There’s no universe where Chychrun should be attempting more shots than Ovi. What are we even doing here?

I don’t think Montreal is getting as much respect as they deserve for their recent play, so even at home, I am likely to be far lower than the field on Washington, seeing as their underlying profile doesn’t look good as of late and they’ve alternated wins and losses since the Holiday break. It doesn’t make me happy to report this, as a long-time Caps truther.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex Ovechkin ($8500), Tom Wilson ($5900), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4500)

Vancouver (+124) @ Carolina (-148) ||| o6.5 +114

Carolina hosting Vancouver as just a -148 favorite immediately jumps out as surprising, considering the different tiers of the league each team resides in. On the Vancouver side, we’re expecting both Thatcher Demko and Elias Pettersson to return and Carolina is on the second half of a back-to-back, which likely helps explain Vancouver going off at a much better line (WSH was -175 on Wednesday) here than last time out.

What this means on the ice is a bigger question, as we haven’t seen a practice for Vancouver and they are coming off a loss. Also, this isn’t great:

For now, I am projecting Pettersson to slot in between Garland and DeBrusk, and Lekkerimaki to stick with Miller and Boeser, though Lekkerimaki very well could be sent to the AHL to make room for Pettersson, so keep an eye out. A similarly large question is what does Tocchet do with the PP1, as keeping Pettersson and Miller apart probably isn’t sustainable long-term. There’s metric ton of uncertainty here, so Friday morning could help unpack some of the lingering questions. I am not uninterested in Vancouver, especially if the field is giving Carolina more respect than their -148 line at the time of this writing should merit, as the underlying xG and actual goal numbers as of late don’t have much distance between these two clubs, before you factor in the presence of EP40 and Carolina’s B2B.

MOODS’ DUDES: J.T. Miller ($6800), big space, second big space, third big space so they aren’t on the same line, Elias Pettersson ($6300)

You don’t often see Leafs’ 6-3 losses that feature Auston Matthews scoring a goal and going -6 on the night. Alright, I’ll say it. I don’t think we’ll ever see that again. Carolina clobbered the Toronto top line, holding Matthews to just 15% xGF on the night. Their lineup leaves a bit to be desired, as we are back to Necas with Robinson (and Necas is no longer on anything close to a scorcher) and Svechnikov with Jordan Staal, with both players showing clear signs that this is impacting their fantasy viability.

That leaves us with the top line, where all three of Roslovic, Aho, and Jarvis have been productive and are producing well under the surface, as well. This is effectively a one-line team for fantasy and they check in at a total of $16.9k, which is pretty nice for us DFS players.

Brent Burns took over the PP1 last night, and is $4200 with a good shot rate. He’s 40 years old so we are far from peak Burns, but the role and price make him at least a viable option, both in stacks and as a one-off.

MOODS’ DUDES: Sebastian Aho ($6900), Seth Jarvis ($5100), Brent Burns ($4200)

Los Angeles (+110) @ Winnipeg (-130) ||| o5.5 -110

Los Angeles is back in action on Friday night, having last played on Saturday, and we haven’t seen them on the ice in a while. I am anticipating that Joel Edmundson, who is questionable, to play and for LA to keep their 11F 7D alignment. This continues to be great news for Adrian Kempe, who has been incredibly productive all season long and has maintained a 40-goal pace. What to do elsewhere is a bit tricky, as the 11 and 7 alignment completely hinders Brandt Clarke’s relevance and Anderson/Gavrikov are not reliable fantasy players in their minutes.

I still really like Alex Laferriere, his production has cooled off with a recent dry spell, but the process is still elite, posting 55 shot attempts in his last ten and scoring just one goal on 3.0 ixGs. He’s also picked up four primary assists and zero secondaries. I think you want to stack Laferriere with Fiala (who gets you exposure to both PP units, playing the full 2:00), but I could see the case that Laferriere is a top value at just $4300 as a one-off play.

Quinton Byfield is the other obvious elite play on the Kings, holding a PP1 job for less than $4000 while actually Doing Things is going to do that to a guy. He has 6 goals in his last ten on 46 attempts and 4.0 ixGs, so he’s getting to great areas to score from and has clear pedigree as the 2020 second-overall pick.

I do have some concerns about the matchup, however…

MOODS’ DUDES: Adrian Kempe ($7200), Kevin Fiala ($6600), Alex Laferriere ($4300)

Winnipeg is getting Dylan Samberg back in the lineup on Friday, which might be a name you’ve not heard to this point in your NHL DFS careers, but is a staggeringly big deal. I refused to believe it, too, until every beat writer in Winnipeg made a fantastic case about what a difference-maker he has been this season.

Look at the difference in Neal Pionk’s results, and the team’s as a whole, through the lens of Samberg.

Pionk’s defensive game completely collapsed without Samberg, and while there could be some rust in his first game back from a broken foot, I’m willing to bank on this being a legitimate upgrade for the Jets, who have stumbled a bit record-wise over the past month or so but still look like a legitimate contender:

The top PP unit is all I would be interested in, as the Kings pose a tough matchup from top-to-bottom and we can’t even trust the middle six anymore, as in at least two of their recent losses we’ve seen Lowry and Namestnikov flip center spots. Without any standouts, anyway, we’re safe to look at a $9000 Kyle Connor and a $22k WPG1 and make our decisions accordingly. It’s a fade for me, but the matchup and angles are there if you find a cheap stack you like.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kyle Connor ($9000)

San Jose (+200) @ Utah HC (-245) ||| o6.5 +105

Given the lightning-fast elevation of Celebrini’s price tag, it’s hard to have much confidence in San Jose stacks on Friday night. The matchup is not particularly daunting with a mediocre Utah squad, but you’re also not saving much money off the other games on the slate for your troubles. Will Smith and Celebrini have stuck together, while practice Thursday saw Graf flip with Kunin, Kunin now riding shotgun to Celebrini. Kunin is peak Just A Guy, and while it’s impossible not to be excited about what Macklin has shown to this point in his NHL career, I think his success has been overstated a tad, as the DK price vs. his actual prodution would indicate.

The Lund Line remains in play, at just $13.7k, but neither of Eklund or Zetterlund (if he plays, GTD leaning toward probable) skated on the PP1 in practice with Liljegren flipping back atop the formation. William Eklund has been masterful since returning from injury, and alongside Granlund looks real good, especially as a o1.5 kind of shot prop player. Good players in good roles who sometimes shoot should not be +200 to get three on goal as has been the case for the past week, but I/you need to be careful that we don’t bet into a rising price, as he’s not profiling like an actual elite rates guy, but rather an average one priced out of association with his role.

In DFS, I think I just prefer Laferriere, for a similar price.

MOODS’ DUDES: William Eklund ($4000), Will Smith ($2600)

The late hammer offers up a -245 Utah HC side that is not a colossal favorite by any of their own doing. This is an indictment on the Sharks, who have relied on an unbelievable run of form in net to look even remotely competitive, and the books aren’t buying that continuing. It’s very possible that Askarov is just Him and that his .923 sv% holds, but it’s also a bit concerning that UTA1 is nearly $16k and Cooley-Guenther clear $11k. Mikhail Sergachev has not produced like a $5800 defender, outside of that one game, and the depth doesn’t bring much to the table with Maccelli split from Bjugstad and Crouse currently.

I thought I liked this Utah team, but the field and the markets have clearly surpassed me on that front, and I think I’m willing to buy that Utah is much closer to the Sharks than they are to the playoff picture, as their one win in their last seven games can attest to.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Guenther ($6000)

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