A Gold Medal in Gambling

[Intro Deleted for Update Log Space]

We’ll start Group A, then B, then C. I WILL BE USING THIS NEWSLETTER TO UPDATE THE LINEUPS AS WE GET THEM, INCLUDING PP INFORMATION, EVEN IF IT IS LATER ON IN THE EVENT. CHECK BACK REGULARLY IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN A LIVE-ISH VERSION OF THESE VIEWS.

Update Log - 2/21 10PM EST GOLD MEDAL GAME - $DK pricing is SD FLEX pricing

• On the Canadian side, Sidney Crosby is rumored to be pushing to play. That doesn’t mean much, however. If Sid plays, we have confirmed info that he’s not sitting on the bench as a cheerleader for morale purposes. However, there’s a very real chance that he plays a period before calling it or that he reaggravates the knee injury. I personally think he plays, and he keeps his PP1 role over Celebrini, which will be controversial if it plays out. I just don’t see how you say Sid is good to go, and then don’t play him on PP1 for a 19-year-old. He should center Stone and Marner if he plays, and all three of Bennett, Horvat, and Suzuki will be dressed barring significant surprise to mix in on 5v5 shifts.

• This is all assuming, of course, that Nathan MacKinnon remains on the wing with McDavid-Celebrini, which has not been the case to start any game so far. The fact that Tom Wilson - Sam Bennett - Brad Marchand made such an impact at 5v5 in the third period of the Finland game, including being on the ice for the game tying goal, I think gives Jon Cooper a little more leeway to throw his fastball out of the gate. With that in mind, we’ve seen Canada fall into something of a 1-2-3-1-2-1-3-1-2-3 line deployment, cutting the bench quickly when trailing as they have the past two games. The third line does not mean much, as it is highly subject to change. Hagel-Horvat-Reinhart-Suzuki feel just as likely to make the difference in this one, to me, especially since none of the current third line receive even PP2 time.

• Defensively, Canada could also shake up their D-pairs, as they did in the second half of Friday’s game where Theodore-Harley spent a lot of (quality) time together, and Drew Doughty was effectively benched despite the only RHD being Parayko and Makar otherwise. This is the upside of bringing a LHD like Theodore who is more comfortable (and in fact plays nearly full time in Vegas) on the right. Drew Doughty will get something of the right of first refusal here, given his veteran status, but like he sucks so he’ll probably pull up the rear once again in terms of ice time.

• The US technically has Tage as questionable, but all indications are that he will play, and the JHughes-Larkin-Tage line was great on Friday, largely because Jack Hughes looks like Jack Hughes for the first time in a long time. That, compared to Canada, is a real “third line” by TOI and usage, I think. That said, the US has refused to pile much onto Eichel’s or Matthews’ plate at this point, compared to Canada running out McDavid-Celebrini for 25+ minutes on Friday. We have yet to see the US trail in Italy, so that could be in play here as well. US4 gets a fair amount of defensive minutes which could be influencing their TOI totals:

• Setting the stage, then, the DFS slate that awaits us will depend a lot on what we get from Canada on Sunday AM. I have some concern that MacKinnon doesn’t start with McDavid-Celebrini and that the field isn’t up to adjust for this. Stone-Marner should be fairly underplayed, whether Sid plays or not, due to the uncertainty and their prices ($7400-$6000, respectively). If Sid plays, I think taking a stab on that line could be warranted. With no blocked shots, it makes sense that plays like Parayko, Sanheim, and Doughty are $2k, but I think the field plays them anyway. Harley ($4400) and Shea Theodore ($3800) are also too easy to click on, and even then McDavid-Celebrini-Parayko vs. Crosby-Stone-Marner is a $1200 price difference. It’s very hard to see a fully correlated L2 being truly worse than whatever brand of nonsense the field is going to trot out, and the Crosby stuff also leverages the 3v3 by taking a PP1 spot from Macklin and the PP Goals away from McDavid/MacKinnon. I’m not fully committed to this angle, but it seems like the most obvious one I’ve seen so far.

• The CAN D are very interesting, as we’ve simply seen them more involved offensively than everyone on the US not named Quinn Hughes (and Zach Werenski if looking at the group stages). If you could promise me 15 minutes of Shea Theodore, I am hurriedly fitting him in at $3800, as he is a legitimately good shooter too, and gets a PP2 that is likely to have either Sid or Macklin on it, not to mention the other very good players. I was on the Harley train for the full week since his emergence, and I think he had six missed shots on Friday, including some that seemingly were goals if they were on frame. $4400 works for me too, I just worry that the play is so obvious and the 19 minutes are so secure that we’re betting on a rather binary yes/no point outcome with significant ownership anyway.

• On the US side, I think Matthews gets lost, unless one of Guentzel or Boldy are also extremely popular. For $9800, you simply can’t play a goalie plus MacKinnon/McDavid/Celebrini in any combination without detonating your available salary. Eichel would be the chalk option if the Tkachuks weren’t both significantly priced up, and for limited TOI (Brady played ten minutes against Slovakia???) I am pretty concerned about everything on the US side. Will they play more when the chips are down? Or will the US immediately shake everything up anyway and render the current lines useless? It’s hard to see Matthew losing a role entirely, but he’s not been very good, seems hesitant to shoot, and is pretty expensive all the same.

• Tage-Larkin-Hughes is either expert-level or expert-level points chasing, and nothing inside of me is screaming out which one it is in this case. I think $7200 is too cheap for Tage, and Jack Hughes at $6800 is a bet on some of the best form of any player outside of McDavid/Macklin over the past five days of hockey. Given his pedigree and longterm trends, I think Jack is a great bet to follow up on. As I’ve stated many times throughout the tournament, never being correct, I also think there’s an out for Jack Hughes where he simply slots in alongside Matthews on the 2nd for either Boldy or Guentzel. Is Brock Nelson going to be owned? I think so? If playing Brock Nelson, I want to bet on a goalie and on Miller or Trocheck in that said lineup, if not two goalies.

• Ultimately, I can’t get the idea of Eichel flying through the neutral zone like a goddamn Pterodactyl out of my head. He belongs on the podium with McDavid/MacKinnon as one of most impactful players in the game at both ends, and I don’t think is credited as such. This season we’ve seen a more fantasy-productive Eichel than ever before, and he’s upped his shot rate and everything to go along with it. There is nary a game state where Eichel isn’t present, and he’s $8800, a meaningful difference from McDavid-MacKinnon’s price and more in the Crosby neighborhood. I think that’s not a contrarian angle, but with so much uncertainty everywhere on this slate, I think I have to just make the bet that my other five players will separate me from the field.

Moods Dudes - Top Captain Plays:

1. Jack Eichel

2. Connor McDavid

3. Jack Hughes (mid-tier)

4. Jordan Binnington (cheaper than all of Mach3)

5. Sam Reinhart (off the wall)

Moods Dudes - Top Flex Plays:

1. Connor McDavid (hard to see him not getting to 10+ in any game script)

2. Shea Theodore (can he outscore the mess of <$4k players with a shot bonus in just 13 minutes? I think so, and there’s upside for more TOI)

3. Jack Eichel

4. Sam Bennett ($2800, starts out with a possible L3 role given last game’s performance and one of the best trending NHLers heading into the event who hasn’t gotten much TOI at all)

5. Matt Boldy ($6400 vs. Jack Hughes at $6800 should project flat out better).

Join MSP Discord for bets tomorrow AM when we get lines!

Update Log - 2/21 1AM EST (for 2/21 Bronze Medal DFS Slate) - SVK and FIN are updated within the team writeups!

• Friday was a terrible day for me, if you want to know why… just scroll down a bit. Hlavaj wasn’t the cheap goalie you needed (that’d be Mr. Saros), and Rantanen-Aho were game scripted out of doing much of anything, while the depth US players smashed. All of my bets failed for the most part, and I couldn’t even get the backdoor SVK +2.5 cover when they came back from 5-0 down. Shea Theodore scored, and I bet and played Thomas Harley. Damn it!

• Saturday offers up a nice Bronze Medal Game rematch of SVK-FIN, which led off the tournament with an opening day upset, Hlavaj making an astounding 39 saves on 40 shots, 21 of which came from the slot and 27 total scoring chances (per hockeystats.com and Dimitri Filipovic’s tracking). Juraj Slafkovsky took over this game, scoring twice and dominating the flow of the game before Finland turned it on in their attempted comeback.

• I do not expect Finland to roll here the way that the models do (70-80% I am seeing), and the books are largely aligned with the models, as Finland is -270 in this one. I am trying to wrap my head around this game having a lower total than US-Canada gold medal game, (+114 on the o5.5 vs. +130 for the US-Canada game), but I think I’d rather bet on the early going being a bit of a table tennis match with a +100 NO goal in first ten. You may find this better, both DK and FD had +100 though. I’m waiting to post this until Saros + Hlavaj are confirmed starters, otherwise I’ll let it pass. The Finns moving Hintz to the PP2 in favor of Joel Armia is A Choice, and they were trying to set Armia up for short one-timers in the bumper. He’s really hard to ignore considering his defensive acumen and PP/PK role, especially since some of the SD options on SVK were priced up a bit more than Friday. Armia and Aho are my favorite plays/bets of the game, my plan is to look ~45 minutes before game time for the best available lines on those guys, pending any news.

• Likewise, I will wait to make final judgments on Slovakia until lineups are confirmed, as coming off of a loss (a particularly ugly one in Slovakia’s case) is a coach’s dream as far as nonsensical lineup changes. Given Slovakia was an underdog to make it to the Bronze Medal game, I do not think there will be any overreaction here, but you can’t rule it out. I am keeping a special eye on the RW next to Slafkovsky and Ruzicka, as anything other than Tatar would inject some desperately needed value from a SD perspective. Simon Nemec has been one of the best defensemen in this tournament, and with only Miro Heiskanen to go against (and all the FLEX spots, of course, but bear with me), a discount of over $1000 is very compelling to me. I don’t think I can play a lineup with 2 or more SVK players without Slafkovsky. The betting options I’m looking at for Slovakia seem especially nuked here, but will add anything I find in the MSP Discord. I will go out on a bit of limb though and take Slovakia in a 3-2 final for the Bronze.

Update Log - 2/20 1AM EST (for 2/20 Semifinals DFS Slate) - All rosters are updated within the team writeups!

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• Since the betting section went unbelievably hard on Wednesday (and I missed out on a $15k payday on EP40 not scoring and being benched… shout out to Riat and Okuliar, while Macklin and I mended our relationship weeks ago at this point)… Aho is +430 to score a goal (FD) and +120 for a point (The Score Bet), Miro is +160 for a point (DK and The Score both, much better than FD and Fanatics) and +1000 for two points (The Score), Macklin is +120 to score a goal (FD), and I want to bet Sam Bennett but only The Score has him currently (+340 feels a bit rich). Thomas Harley as a 12/1 longshot (DK) feels nice given the way he’s been playing. Slovakia +2.5 +120 (DK) feels like awesome value for a team that’s been competitive versus a team that I am not sure wants to pull away. On the US side, the shots on goal markets feel best. The Tkachuks are +350 and +375 on Fanatics for 5+ shots, way better than anywhere else, and Pavol Regenda sneaks in on DK at +220 for 3 SOG as well (-130 for 2 SOG on Fanatics).

Update Log - 2/18 2:15AM EST (for 2/18 Quarterfinals DFS Slate) - All rosters are updated within the team writeups!

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• A few betting thoughts: MGM boost is flat for any bet up to -200. My favorite in this regard, specific to MGM, is SVK ML at +100. They are not on a b2b, for one, and I just think they are plain better than Germany, star names aside. While Slovakia struggled in the shots department, with 45% of shots in their group stage games, Germany was at 46% in the group stage and just got pulverized by France push when ahead. They trailed most of the group stages and still didn’t outshoot the competiton! FD technically offers +106 on SVK as of writing, but I don’t have anything useful as a boost. DK has a goal scorer boost, which is fairly annoying because their odds are generally pretty bad relative to the other books in the ATG department. A few DK names to consider: Oliver Okuliar 7/1 (SVK), Cale Makar +280 (CAN), Macklin Celebrini -105 (CAN), Damien Riat 15/1 (SUI) — 17/1 on FD too, Elias Pettersson +650 (SWE), Adrian Kempe +290 (SWE), Filip Forsberg +320 (SWE), Auston Matthews +125 (USA) - +130 on FD too. Roman Cervenka is +275 for a point on FD, playing with Pasta and on PP1. That seems disrespectful, just a touch.

Update Log - 2/16 10PM EST (for 2/17 QUALIFYING ROUND DFS Slate) - All rosters are updated within the team writeups!

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Update Log - 2/15 1AM EST (for 2/15 DFS Slate) - All rosters are updated within the team writeups!

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Update Log - 2/14 2AM EST (for 2/14 DFS Slate)

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• I ran through some numbers over on Twitter, and the shot tracking in this tournament is a throwback. The NHL scorers have deflated SOG this year (and last), but the Olympics is not doing that. See more here: https://x.com/FakeMoods/status/2022203776330084597?s=20

Update Log - 2/13 1:30AM EST (for 2/13 DFS Slate)

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Update Log - 2/12 1AM EST (for 2/11 News)

• DK confirmed that they will not be counting blocked shots on the DFS slates, given the Olympics official reporting does not include tallies of blocked shots (but merely shots that are blocked, without attaching the blocker). This is a major bummer, and does change the NHL DFS game dramatically. Since shots are the only base currency we can rely upon, I think this pushes punt forwards ahead of defenders, and makes the alphas on defense that much stronger, since we can’t replace a piece of their offensive output with a blocks bonus. Any defenseman that bonuses (3 points or 5 shots) will almost certainly be optimal.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted. For Minors/other professional leagues, I used Pick224.com (RIP, no longer in service) and NLIceData.com (for all of your Swiss needs!), in addition to way too many hours figuring out how to scrape NCAA, AHL, SHL, Liiga, and KHL data. There are many leagues I did not scrape, so not everyone will have information. Check out EliteProspects.com for the best shot at figuring out 1) profile info, including where players are playing and 2) how they profile offensively from a goal-scoring and point production standpoint. Unfortunately, EP doesn’t offer shot information, thus my efforts to get into the trenches to pull the data I wanted from the league play-by-plays. I then index all data based on position and age for whatever data I have on that league, relative to the league-average. Thus, 1.00 is a perfectly average producer for that league (within a few years either way of the player’s age as-of that season).

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook or FD Sportsbook and will be labeled as such. Please shop around at any book that you have access to beyond just these two.

Group A - Canada (-425 to win: FD) || Czechia (+600 to win: DK) || Switzerland (+750 to win: FD) || France (+50000 to win: DK)

Canada is going to win their group and skip to the Quarterfinals. One very interesting strategy point that DJ and I realized far too late in our analysis of the tournament on the pod feed on Monday is that all 12 teams advance out of the group stage, and seeds 5-12 play to eventually face off with the 1-4 seeds. In practice, this means that the three group winners will get a bye, while one second place finisher (with the most points, and then the biggest goal differential if tied with other 2nd place finishers) also gets the bye. If seeds 5-7ish can make a run to the semis, then they are guaranteed to play one more game than the US/Canada bloc, AND their 5 vs. 12 game will give them an additional layup game (though they are slightly less incentivized to run the score up in this qualification game, whereas the group stage heavily incentivizes torching these squads).

I am immediately a bit turned off by any “Most X in Tournament” bets from the likes of Canada, as a result. I don’t think scoring is concentrated enough, nor will they be too motivated to hang 11 on a hapless opponent, to overcome the lack of that extra game. In theory, the chalk can play out, and seeds 1-4 all win their quarterfinals game, and this matters less… but I still feel like there’s not a ton of value in the tournament-wide markets.

Coach Jon Cooper lost his two most favoritest toys in Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli in the lead-up to the event, leaving him with just Brandon Hagel from his Lightning roster. That just so happens to be where I want to start, as it appears that Bo Horvat will be dressing, instead of Sam Bennett, and centering Hagel and Samson Reinhart. Reinhart remains installed on the CAN PP1, and I would not be too surprised to see this unit get shutdown minutes. DJ placed Reinhart-related bets on Canada and saw them move dramatically already, so unfortunately the liquidity is not great on Reinhart betting.

The center depth on this team is insane, to the point where Celebrini and Suzuki are both playing Wing. I do think that Sid slides up to play with MacKinnon at some point, and Suzuki is an obvious candidate to slide down to 3C. Furthermore, I think that it’s very possible that at least two of Celebrini, Wilson, Suzuki, Marchand, and Mark Stone play 12 minutes on average, and Reinhart and/or Hagel could pass them rather easily in TOI.

One other learning, this time from the Women’s game, is that coaches of these stacked rosters love to use their 13th forward. The 7th defender is hit or miss, and I could see a world where Shea Theodore is a luxury PP option, failing to see a regular shift. But depending on whether it is Bennett or Jarvis as the 13th forward will matter a lot, as Jarvis won’t be used down the middle, and I would be surprised if Sam Bennett played much as a wing. That could swing things on the margins as to whether I target Cs like MacKinnon, McDavid, or Sid, or Ws like Reinhart, Marner, and Celebrini.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Samson Reinhart, as noted, DJ beat me to it and the FD value to lead Canada in goals was erased. Keep an eye out for openers though on him, especially if he moves up the lineup. Will DK aggressively price a nominal 4th liner? We’ll see! +290 to score on DK against Czechia is somewhat interesting (+220 on FD, +170 on MGM).

• Thomas Harley, he’s so back. The last few weeks have been closer to what I am expecting out of Harley, and he is second to Cale Makar in expected DKPts over the past 25 games among CAN D. Theodore has the PP2 role, but I don’t see much of a EV role for him, and Harley offers major blocked shot potential, especially with Drew Doughty.

• Mitch Marner, I think he slides up the lineup a bunch as this team’s clear top winger IMO, and there’s a market pitting Marner against Auston Matthews in h2h points for the event. +176 on FD (-230 on Matthews) seems like a great deal, even without him being on the top PP unit. On Fanatics this market is -135 to +105, if you want to arbitrage it, or you like Matthews more.

Czechia is one of those teams that I think could be in the sweet spot of the 5-6 seeding range, with Canada being a clear favorite to advance. The top line is very sweet, a stark difference from how Switzerland is treating their NHL talent, and I would anticipate this trio to play among the most minutes for any three players on the ice at the same time.

There was some chatter on Czech Xwitter that Roman Cervenka would replace Ondrej Palat on the PP1. The 40 year old got a cup of coffee in the NHL over a decade ago, but remains one of the best players in Czechia, constantly lighting it up on an International stage and leading the Czech lead in scoring. It’s hard to get excited about any of their other depth, though Dominik “Kuba Libre” Kubalik makes an appearance and is still performing quite well in the National (Swiss) League. David Tomasek terminated his contract and returned to the SHL and is absolutely destroying that league once again after showing flashes alongside McDavid. And then there is Ondrej Kase, who was legitimately one of our favorite DFS players for the better part of five years and attended the Filip Chytil School of Concussions. His Czech league stats are not great, however, so I kind of prefer the other three PP2 players as punt options. The fact that his linemates are David Kampf and Ondrej Palat doesn’t help much.

Filip Hronek should pull a bunch of the weight defensively, though Simek, Kempny, and Gudas are at least competent. The Czech depth is slightly better than I anticipated, and the top end is truly elite. I can be talked into the Czech team’s chances.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Tomas Hertl, 3+ goals in the tournament (+170 on DK) - this is roughly even money on FD, and I think undercredits David Pastrnak’s playmaking. Hertl is one of the best in the business in the slot, and Necas and Pasta will do their damndest to find him for layups. Mix in the fact that the Czechs look likely to get a game against France and a game against Italy (if they finish 5-12, or France twice) and I suspect that Hertl will be a guy I go back to regularly.

• David Tomasek, My favorite punt here, it’s hard to ignore Cervenka’s possible PP1 role and International production, but Tomasek was a decent fantasy option in the NHL (shot rate 5% above average) this year, and returned to the SHL and is in the process of his second straight nuclear offensive output, mixing point-per-game chops with an elite shot rate. Also, he’s not 40 fucking years old.

• Michal Kempny, I didn’t really know where else to put this, but Kempny already has six goals in 31 games, after a 247 game NHL career where he scored 15. Out of curiosity, I clicked into the team he is playing on… Jakub Silfverberg, Nicklas Backstrom (perma-LTIR Nick Backstrom, having missed just one game this year?), Kiefer Bellows… wow! This team rocks. Kempny is shooting over there, if my stuff is correct, and he just seems like a good punt defenseman. What else can I say? You wanted me to put David Pastrnak here? WITH DK NOT COUNTING BLOCKS, YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE THESE PUNT-ISH DEFENDERS.

The Swiss are utilizing whatever the opposite strategy of the Czechs strategy is, as noted above, deploying their six NHLers with 2 on the 1st line, 1 on the 2nd line, and 3 on the 3rd line. Because obviously.

Timo Meier with Pius Suter and Philipp Kurashev is a big ole no from me, dawg, as this guy is failing to produce this year with Nico Hischier! Hey wait, I think this coach might be sharper than Sheldon Keefe…

Niederreiter with Malgin and Andrighetto is incredibly interesting to me, as three Moods Dudes (Malgin maybe the least so? but I at least remember liking him a bit!) are rare to find in this corner of the world. Nino is headed for the age cliff, which sucks, but Malgin and Andrighetto have at least been respectable in the National League. Calvin Thurkauf is a relative no-name playing with Fiala and Hischier, but he was a CBJ 2016 draft pick who got 3 NHL games before heading back to Switzerland, where he’s captained Lugano for a handful of years and even worn a letter for the national club, so this early role isn’t a total surprise.

Roman Josi on D is my ace in the hole, as he has been one of my favorite (read: only profitable) players to watch over the past month or so, as his game seems to be back to Roman Josi levels. After dealing with a harrowing illness situation last year and throughout the summer, he claimed he had no reservations about the Olympics, and seems to have paced himself accordingly, as he’s peaked at the perfect time for what is likely his final go at it while playing at this level. Over the past 25 games, he’s a point-per-game player who is only bested by defensemen in DK Pts per game by Evan Bouchard, Cale Makar, and Darren Raddysh.

Switzerland also can deploy JJ Moser, perhaps the league’s new Jaccob Slavin, and Jonas Siegenthaler, and are backed by Akira Schmid in net. The Swiss feel frisky, at the very least, and for me it starts from their blue line. Even a guy like Dean Kukan has some NHL experience, and possible scratch Tim Berni was a Blue Jacket for a spell as well.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Roman Josi, This first game against France has Josi listed at +250 to score, which seems a bit rich. I will be jamming Josi whenever I can, however, in DFS slates.

• Denis Malgin, Picking between Malgin and Andrighetto is tough, and Malgin is a few years younger with slightly better NHL production (including above average rate stats across the board) while Andrighetto has been more effective this year in the shots/points categories. I really like both with Nino Niederreiter if the Thursday slate includes this game! +370 for Malgin on Thursday and +390 for Andrighetto both stand out (DK), especially relative to Nino (+140).

• Kevin Fiala, Fiala is the heartbeat of any PP unit he is on, and he and Roman Josi have some old chemistry from his Nashville days. This season in LA has been an absolute slog, but Fiala over the past 5-plus years has been one of the most involved players in the league on the PP, tallying a point on a larger % of his team’s goals than pretty much anyone not named McDavid.

The French side is bad. Alexandre Texier will be their focal point, and Stephane Da Costa is a fun player. I hope they play together! I have no idea, however, and their defensemen are a complete black box to me.

In net, I’ve never heard of any of these goalies. Fun!

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Let’s get to Group B!

Group B - Sweden (-155 to win: DK) || Finland (+155 to win: FD) || Slovakia (+1600 to win: DK) || Italy (+50000 to win: DK)

Team Sweden enters Wednesday’s matchup with Italy as a -50000 favorite, in case anyone has a spare $50k to drop on the outcome. The team construction is interesting, but I think I uncovered most of the interesting nuggets about the coaching staff and his connections to Elias Pettersson, Lucas Raymond, and Marcus Johansson (in case you were wondering how he made the squad over Mikael Backlund) in last year’s Four Nations writeup.

Sam Hallam has an interesting collection of players available to him, though I would argue every player you could argue as a gamebreaker has taken a step back this season other than Lucas Raymond (and maybe Rasmus Dahlin), in large part thanks to age-related declines. The vast majority of this roster is pushing 30+, and losing Leo Carlsson to an injury is fairly devastating to this team’s chances at pushing their high-end outcomes.

Lucas Raymond + Elias Lindholm, both on the PP1 (with Dahlin) stand out to me as potential values, given the fourth line seems like a tire fire (and where I expect Wennberg and/or Johansson to mix in) and Forsberg is significantly more expensive despite being on the weaker PP unit. That PP2 is also in flux, as I have five players marked yet both Rakell and Bratt took shifts with the PP2 in practice, meaning Pettersson and Landeskog could rotate out.

As covered in last year’s writeup, Lucas Raymond is Hallam’s Dude, and he once again attended the World Championships last year, posting a point per game.

Erik Karlsson was my ride or die in last year’s tournament, though that didn’t bear a ton of fruit, and he seems to be appropriately priced this year, if not overpriced due to his sheer lack of production lately, at least to start, in looking at available point props. Perhaps when we see Sweden in less of cupcake matchups (Cannoli?) these odds distance themselves a bit more and open up the board a bit. Mika Zibanejad has not been nearly as bad this year as the Rangers’ stuggles may have you believing, but I am fairly scarred by the uncertainty around the PP2.

William Nylander is technically a GTD, and could see his minutes reduced as he battles a recurring groin injury. I could see an under being in play on him if offered anywhere, as TOI could be capped in a significant way against Italy. Rickard Rakell would be someone I expect to benefit in this circumstance, as there are only a few quality right shots on this team (Forsberg, Lindholm(?), Zibanejad, Rakell), and only Rakell is currently not listed on a PP unit.

Final note: FD seems convinced that Gustavsson is the starter here, listing him as the favorite to lead the entire tournament in saves. I think Jacob Markstrom gets the start on Wednesday, and if so he probably gets Friday against Finland too. 65/1 on Markstrom most saves seems like a worthwhile gamble if the news breaks right and we can beat FD to the spot.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Lucas Raymond, I love a good coaches pet. I highlighted both Raymond and Pettersson last year and rode Pettersson to the grave, so let’s switch it up this year and spotlight Raymond. His odds to lead Team Sweden in goals is ~9/1 from what I can find, and while I like it I don’t love it. I’ll probably rely on DFS for my exposure, but will check on prices in non-walkovers.

• Rasmus Dahlin, Dahlin has ramped his game up to an extreme degree this year, and should probably be in the Norris discussion if it weren’t for an extremely difficult personal life situation forcing him to miss some time and clearly impacting his game early on this season. As the rest of this Sweden blue line ages and underperforms, Dahlin should take on the role of top dog this event. I do not see any glaringly obvious bets, but o4.5 points at -130 on DK does at least pique my interest, even if it doesn’t generate much value against FD offerings, for example. We had Dahlin as an underdog in total points to Miro Heiskanen yesterday, but that flipped since to where Dahlin is about -140 there as well.

• Rasmus Andersson, he has stepped his game up this year, absolutely crushing the DFS game. He shoots, he blocks, and he’s picking up points even more than his established career rate. No PP time should only keep the DFS field off of Andersson, and he’s one of my favorites as someone who really doesn’t need the PP boost to hit a ceiling. I doubt there’s anything you can bet… but I will be on the lookout. WITH NO BLOCKS BEING COUNTED, RASMUS ANDERSSON IS NOT AN INTERESTING DFS CANDIDATE

Group B holds all of the intrigue of the group stages, for me, as both Finland and Sweden find themselves in the same group. The geographical rivals feel like they are in opposite camps, as even without Sasha Barkov this team seems to be ascending, with several younger players down the lineup who could step in to make an impact. The main weakness here is on defense, and while I was hopeful we would get some secondary Ristolainen PP time (the one thing he’s definitely good at? deferring to good players on the PP) that seems to be going to long-time Finnish vet Mikko Lehtonen, who captained the World Championships team last year and rocked a point-per-game average in the event. I suspect he’ll be mixed in fairly regularly, really dampening the outlook for any non-Miro defender.

Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen spent time together on the Stars last year, but I just checked and they managed a whopping three minutes TOI as a unit. Tough. In any case, Granlund is a drag, we know this from Anaheim, and he pretty much exists to extract fantasy value from his teammates. I really want to like Mikko Rantanen, and if you do, Fanatics is offering -150 on him vs. Marner in points for the tournament, whereas FD is offering -205 (and +158 on Marner, which I might also add to the above vs. Matthews).

Juuse Saros seems to have a grip on the net, however the schedule doesn’t really line up for him to crush this event, as Weds + Friday brings Slovakia and Sweden, and then Saturday he’ll get the day off for either Korpisalo or Lankinen against Italy.

This second line seems like a good quality line that can chew up and spit out the Slovak and Italian depth, with Lundell-Luostarinen set up as a quasi-shutdown line. Sebastian Aho straddles the 2nd line and PP1, making him a reasonable one-off as well if you can’t find $21k to play FIN1 on the Wednesday DFS slate.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Sebastian Aho, +210 to score against Slovakia seems disrespectful (DK), and seems to be 20-50 points better than other books. Teuvo is not going to shoot, and Lehkonen should help drive play forward, especially if they can get plum matchups.

• Roope Hintz, If I have to choose out of the top line, Hintz is my guy. Breakaway speed mixed with quality finishing ability will work. Chemistry with Rantanen is somewhat present (16-9 advantage at 5v5 in ~300 minutes), even if the xGs are lacking.

• Mikko Lehtonen, PP2 ace in the hole, minimum priced defenseman? He seems at least plausibly in the mix for 15+ minutes, so he may just be a necessary evil to fit in the mega studs. His stats are at least fine, as a ~0.5 PPG defenseman in Zurich the past few seasons mixed with a quality shot rate this year.

Juraj Slafkovsky leads Team Slovakia into battle, 2025-26 being a massive breakout for him in every facet of the game. His fantasy game has taken a big step, as well, while top linemates Adam Ruzicka and Tomas Tatar at least have some NHL experience. Ruzicka is someone who found himself banished from the NHL rather early on, and is still firmly in his prime and posting awesome KHL stats. The only downside is that he is not on the PP1, while Tomas Tatar is much older and worse, but gets PP1 and is at least an NHL veteran.

Dvorsky and Hudacek on L2 are interesting as a PP1 ministack, Hudacek spending the past several years as a double-digit goalscorer in the Czech league and Dvorsky debuting in the NHL this year on the other end of the age curve.

If Slafkovsky is point of interest #1, the play of Pavol Regenda may be tied with Simon Nemec for what I am most interested in other than Juraj. Regenda starts this event on the third line, with Martin Pospisil and Milos Kelemen, who are both are least NHL vets. Regenda was awesome in San Jose, producing at a high clip and getting pucks on net at a good rate.

Simon Nemec projects to be Slovakia’s horse right out of the gate, immediately earning a PP1 gig and the plum gig next to Martin Fehervary, something that in theory could have gone to Erik Cernak. Nemec has shown incredible flashes in New Jersey, at one point being called by his head coach “our best offensive option” on a club that pays all of Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes, Timo Meier, and Dougie Hamilton. He’s struggled to produce consistently, but on a team that has no other choice, he could be a fantasy/betting cheat code for us. See below:

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Simon Nemec, $3400 on DK Wednesday is just too cheap. I wish we had more robust markets to bet into, as he’s not even offered in the tournament points menus (Dvorsky is, but not at enticing odds for me). Keep an eye out for later in the tournament to see if he makes his way into any betting markets? +105 for one goal in the event on FD is at least interesting, but I wonder what his odds will be against Italy, given Finland and Sweden are two tough draws.

• Juraj Slafkovsky, +130 for 3 shots (FD) seems really strong for the 20 minutes I expect him to play on Wednesday. If he’s not shooting, then no one is, and Saros has a fairly normal 22.5 save prop. Slafkovsky has averaged 5.25 shot attempts per game over the last 25 games, only a half an attempt behind Cole Caufield.

• Pavol Regenda, He’s a dude, but what the fuck is this DK price? $4800? Lord. Watch for him to ascend the lineup, and quick, in this event.

This team is horrible. Damian Clara is a 2nd rounder of the Ducks in 2023 and is playing in the SHL. That’s more than we have on nearly ever player on this roster. He’s a goalie, and should see lots of volume. There’s absolutely no reason he can’t be optimal if he allows 5 goals but sees 43 shots on goal, given Saros and SWE starter shouldn’t see much volume at all.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Tommy Purdeller? He at least made the OHL. A fairly young guy, he is 2nd on his Italian league team. DK knows something, they made him $4600 on the 2-game slate. WHAT DO YOU KNOW? FD made him +950 to score, DK doesn’t even offer Italian players. The fix is in!

• Damian Clara, goalie. Sure.

Group C - USA (-900 to win: FD) || Germany (+800 to win: DK) || Latvia (+3500 to win: DK) || Denmark (+5000 to win: DK)

These lines seem pretty good, at least. The PP1 I actually had to project out, seeing as we have had no reporting on this yet. Insane stuff. This Mike Sullivan guy might just be a massive donkey. Speaking of which, it appears that Jake Sanderson is being left out of the main group of defensemen (with LaCombe almost certainly headed for the press box.. I hope?) for Noah Hanifin. Both would be playing their offside, which neither do much at all. I don’t really understand what we are doing here.

That said, Eichel and Matthews is a better all-around C core than McDavid and MacKinnon. Am I doing this hot takes stuff right? They better take it upon themselves to prove me right!

The US advantage might actualy lie in the Tkachuk factor, as they have two guys who can rough and tumble that are better than Tom Wilson, and they are secondary to Matt Boldy, who is an absolute rock star. Jake Guentzel weasels his way into the top six yet again, this time immediately, while Kyle Connor, Tage Thompson, and Jack Hughes lie in wait.

Quinn Hughes being available for this event is a Big Fucking Deal, and from a fantasy standpoint he’s shooting more than ever. I would also like to point out the same fact for Brock Faber, who magically decided to shoot more even since Quinn Hughes arrived while also blocking a ton of shots and picking up points… Say, I think Charlie McAvoy is better than Brock Faber offensively. McAvoy is +175 to score a goal (DK) in the entire fucking tournament. Gold star lock of the Olympics, right here!

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Jack Eichel, Playing with Matthew Tkachuk is a big deal, especially if Tkachuk is still hampered offensively. His shot rate is down vs. the past several years, while Eichel is on the uptick this year after I complained he was deferring too much in Vegas. He is +650 to lead the US in goals (FD), which I like in concert with Boldy (+900 DK) for what I believe to be pretty solid coverage. DK is also hanging +160 to score against Latvia. I envision the US PP running through him, so any PP point props we can get I would take a hard look at as well. +130 on FD for 3+ goals and -220 for 2+ seem lock-ish as well.

• Charlie McAvoy, I guess when you gold star lock a player, he’s one of your dudes. I’m not sure what my interest level will be on a game-to-game basis, but I guess we’ll see what the slates offer! Say, did you know Mike Sullivan is his father-in-law?

• Matt Boldy, +900 (DK) to lead US in scoring, he’s +190 to score against Latvia. Alrighty then. He’s -160 on FD for 2+ goals and +180 for 3+. Seems good, though Eichel might be better there?

Lukas Reichel is <+300 odds to score against Denmark on both DK and FD. Did I wake up in an alternate universe where my refusal to give up on Lukas Reichel wasn’t punished repeatedly?

This team is obnoxiously easy to dissect, and the only light point of interest is which center JJ Peterka plays alongside, which based on practice seems to be Stutzle. It seems as if the vast majority of folks have adopted the Germans as their sleepers, and I feel like I am similarly high on Switzerland and am a bit confused by Denmark’s positioning as total doormats by the books. I guess by process of elimination then, I am low on Germany.

Great, another chance for Draisaitl to extract money from my wallet, let’s go.

Dominik Kahun spent some time in the NHL, as did Tobias Rieder, the latter of whom continues to produce in Europe. Wojciech Stachowiak is a fairly interesting name, given he’s an AHLer who immediately got placed with Stutzle and Peterka, but would it surprise you that he’s under contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning who plucked him out of the DEL? They seem to know talent. Across 29 Int’l games over the past two years, Stachowiak has posted 29 points, so his play with the national team appears to be immediately rewarded. FD is hanging a +650 on Stachowiak’s goal odds, while DK doesn’t have him posted, so you can wait to see if DK offers something better or jump on FD now.

Defensively, Seider and a bunch of dudes is the correct way to describe the situation. Gawanke flashed some interesting AHL stats a couple years ago, and The Athletic’s preview spotlighted him as a player to watch with what sounds like confirmation of a DFS-friendly skillset.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Wojciech Stachowiak, A fun bet, an even funner name for DJ to try and spell in his betting card. This is why we scrape this data, to try and figure out if these dudes can play. If we just based our decisions solely off of what the Tampa Bay Lightning scouting staff did, however, we’d be even better off, so I am glad we are in alignment here. +650 to score (FD) on Thursday should be best odds, pending DK posting. His international play only solidifies would should be a legitimate role.

• Leon Draisaitl, should we be worried that the books are respecting Lukas Reichel because of Draisaitl? I think we should be. 3 assist night, incoming.

• Moritz Seider, I don’t think I’ll be punting anyone besides Stachowiak on Germany, in all honesty. I also feel like I’ll be a massive Roman Josi slappy this year, and they should be competing for the same roster spot on Thursday (unless that 6:10 AM game is a separate slate!). I just like having three guys here, and think Peterka is a bit overrated (and Stutzle is back to not shooting after pretending earlier this year he might shoot a bit again). Seider is a walking triple bonus opportunity. DOUBLE BONUS, BECAUSE DK…. STILL FINE THOUGH, GIVEN PP1

Latvia was nice enough to confirm for us that the top six would contain what look to be their best forwards, so that’s fun. I assume four of these guys will be PP1, and perhaps that is Vilmanis instead of Blueger, but I feel like I am close here.

The individual pieces are more interesting to me than the sum of the collective parts, as I am not sure I buy that this team is appreciably better than Denmark (which we’ll get to some betting opportunities over in their writeup).

Rudolfs Balcers stands out to me in a big way, as a legitimately good offensive NHL player for his run, and then posting decent numbers in the Swiss National League this year after finishing 2nd on Zurich with 20 goals two years ago. Uvis Balinskis is a fairly locked-in PP1 defenseman, and has been perfectly fine in Florida this year for fantasy. He has a bit of a track record of shooting, so he’ll make for a good value option on just about any slate that doesn’t involve getting absolutely shitcanned by the US squad.

I am a bit more hesitant to buy the top line, even if Zemgus Girgensons the only top line center in this tournament with a sick song about him. Vilmanis has been pretty terrible in a brief NHL stint, and his AHL production has been much to write home about, either. Combine that with someone named Eduards Tralmaks capping it off, and I’d rather play Blueger + Balcers. There are two Bukarts, and Rihards at least seems like he got to play in the KHL a few years back now and was pretty decent. That 2nd line is where it starts and ends for me, though Dans Locmelis may play his way up the lineup as maybe the only true “prospect” on this team outside of Vilmanis. Locmelis has been pretty good for Providence of the AHL this season.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Uvis Balinskis, quality PP1 defenseman, should be cheap. Not sure I am putting money on the line in betting markets, but he might help out a DFS lineup or two.

• Rudolfs Balcers, former Moods Dude, I may wait to see if he’s actually PP1 though before I do anything crazy.

Denmark has staggeringly poor odds for a team with a real NHL goalie (and a real AHL one!) plus Nik Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand. The problem seems to be with their defense group, which I have next to know info on but seems Very Bad.

These are total guesses, as far as lines and PP units are concerned, but Anders Koch and Markus Lauridsen at least have some really good stats (slightly outdated) in the Liiga and SHL, respectively. I think they’ll man a PP unit each, and the real interest is where Ehlers and Bjorkstrand wind up. Lars Eller is fine, but if anyone else can take a draw I think they should find room for Patrick Russell, who had some time with EDM years ago and currently ranks 3rd in DEL scoring behind only Penn State legend Evan Barratt and long-time tweener Riley Barber, and Oscar Fisker Molgaard, who has been performing well in the AHL this year and is a legitimate prospect, having been drafted in the second round by Seattle in 2023.

Mikkel Aagaard stood out statistically and is absolutely nuking the SHL this year, and was called out in that same Athletic piece I referenced earlier as being a late bloomer who progressed all the way from the ECHL to the SHL. If he can take a draw, he’s on my PP1 over Lars Eller too.

Freddie Andersen will start in goal for Denmark, and the hope is that he is better here than he has been for Carolina this year (a ghastly .871 Sv%). There’s zero reason for Denmark to be longer odds than Latvia to win this group, but I am afraid it doesn’t matter much, as none of the H2H markets offer Denmark vs. Latvia, and the “Stage of Elimination” market gives Denmark QF at +135 and Latvia at +200, showing that they also view Denmark as better despite the mismatching Group Odds. Denmark to reach the Quarters (win or lose once there) is -105 on FD, and while I think I can find better, I’m not sure even +150 does it for me. If you want action on Denmark, though, I recommend that avenue.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Nikolaj Ehlers, Surely Denmark can’t find a way to limit him to 15:19 TOI per night.. right? RIGHT? He’s -360 for 3+ points on DK though, so I am afraid this isn’t an overly relevant player (Matt Boldy has the same odds for goals, basically..)

• Anders Koch/Markus Lauridsen, let’s see which one gets PP1, but whichever one does I will be watching closely!

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