Four Nations, Facing Off

I’m not happy. Fortunately for me, neither is Sidney Crosby. Our sweet NBA All-Star Break week of juiced prize pools and heightened interest has been replaced with… this. Four nations, facing off.

Finland is technically facing off, though they’ll need to implement and perfect the neutral zone trap in two practices in order to run the table here. I don’t have high hopes, with all due respect given to Urho Vaakanainen and Henri Jokiharju, who might not make life tough on the opposition as a third pair, but surely will test both my spelling ability (nailed it) and DJ’s pronunciation.

When life gives you lemons though, you wager vast sums of money on partial information to get you through it. This is my guide to gambling on the Four Nations Faceoff. Let’s get through this together.

DraftKings appears to be offering contests on the DFS platform (in the form of Showdown, at least, with Saturday possibly offering a two gamer, but probably being two separate showdowns) and has an assortment of betting options open as of Tuesday evening. While we’ve been told that Underdog is going to be posting pick’em lines, none are posted as of this writing. I urge you to shop across various books and platforms of choice, but I will be focusing on DK Odds for this writeup.

The writeup will take the form of a normal weekly slate writeup, typically on Fridays, you’ve found in your inbox throughout the year. Moods Dudes will mainly feature suggested bets, both currently available and anything that I might be waiting on, personally.

We’ll start with the first game and then cover the second game, if you’re interested in the DK Showdown slate, pricing has been incorporated (FLEX pricing) for all CAN/SWE players and I will post each matchup as it occurs in the MSP Discord.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Sweden (+195) @ Canada (-238) ||| o5.5 -135 - Bell Centre (Montreal)

Sweden is coached by Sam Hallam, a 45-year-old longtime SHL coach who has spent the past few years (apparently) exclusively coaching the International team. He got his first HC gig in the Allsvenskan (second-tier Swedish league) at age 29, but no I can still change things for the better, I haven’t wasted my life.

*long, deafening silence*

In any case, Hallam has sufficient experience on the international stage and a wealth of talent to work with, particularly on the blue line, which for my money is the best collection of defensemen in this tournament.

Poking around some history, Hallam debuted behind the Swedish bench in the 2023 Worlds, leading a team that allowed just three goals in six group stage games before allowing four to the Americans, then lost to the home Latvians in the QF 3-1 despite outshooting them 41-15. This game is a trip, and while I could go on and on about this 2023 QF game that I just discovered today, I will just highlight that this game featured 12 minutes of PP time for Sweden that they were completely unable to capitalize on. Good thing we don’t care about powerplay production here /s …

In 2024, the roster featured several more name-brand players, and Hallam led the team to a Bronze medal featuring key contributions from Erik Karlsson (6+5=11 in 10 GP), Joel Eriksson Ek (7+2=9), Lucas Raymond (4+5=9), Rasmus Dahlin (2+7=9), Victor Hedman (1+7=8), Adrian Kempe (0+6=6), and Jonas Brodin (1+3=4). None of these players could hold a candle to Marcus Johansson, however, who led the charge with 6+6=12 in just 9 games, while also leading the team in ± with a +14 rating, the only Swede in double digits.

I would also note that Raymond played for Hallam in 2023, as well, totaling 8 points in 8 games, leading all SWE forwards.

It’s easy to see, then, why Raymond might have earned a role on the nominal PP1 alongside Willy Nylander, Mika Zibanejad, Victor Hedman, and JEEK (who also doubles as Raymond’s C at 5v5). I am just not sure this unit has much going on. Zibanejad is pretty stationary as a one-time threat at this stage in his career, and JEEK is locked in netfront, leaving Nylander to maestro while Raymond tries to get loose in the slot.

Victor Hedman to man the point over Rasmus Dahlin, who is not a part of either PP unit, is quite the choice, too. Unless Hedman managed to pack Kucherov in his suitcase, I’m pretty sure Dahlin is going to be The Guy for Sweden in 2026, if not game #2 of this event. Could spotty decision-making be Sam Hallam’s weakness? Only time will tell.

I am quite intrigued by this second PP unit, however. Erik Karlsson remains awesome offensively, having produced at a stellar rate, including a past-three-years primary point rate better than that of Victor Hedman, while also producing a similar DKPts/60 mark. He did so while largely saddled with the tanking Sharks and a shockingly bad Pittsburgh power play, and while obviously he shoulders some of the blame for both situations, I am not sure Hedman is what makes the Tampa machine go… I think Karlsson’s demise is a bit overstated, myself, particularly for the games we play. If only there were another Mattias Ekholm 5v5 partner who has unbelievable talent that we could use as a comparison, then we might have a comp but none come to mind.

EK65 is dramatically underpriced on this fantasy slate, even if he’s limited to 16-17 minutes in a sheltered role, at just $3600, and correlates really well with another two-man stack I like a lot in Filip Forsberg and Elias Pettersson, who will play together at 5v5 with Adrian Kempe. Forsberg is pretty clearly the best offensive weapon Sweden possesses - he tops the team in DKPts/60 both this season and in the long-term and primary point rate over the past three years - and Pettersson is in the midst of a terrible year, but that’s been priced in and some, as we’ll cover below. If his balky knee can hold up for three games in six days, he’s got a lot of support from Forsberg and Kempe offensively.

Rakell is the odd-man out, but if I told you Forsberg, Bratt, EK65, and EP40 were this team’s four best offensive weapons, would you buy it? I think I might, so I’m willing to bet on the PP uncertainty between units.

Last thing: Sam Hallam actually coached one of these players during his decade at the helm of the Vaxjo Lakers. Elias Pettersson, the Washed One himself, broke out in a major way in 17-18, tallying 56 points in 44 games to lead the league, then led the Lakers to the SHL Championship with 19 points in 13 games. Is that a good signal? I think at the very least it can’t be a bad one.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Filip Forsberg, +100 for a point, +500 for two points, +330 for a goal, and -130 for o2.5 shots. Yes please. I also like 5/1 for Forsberg to lead Sweden in points this tournament and 35/1 to lead the entire thing in points.

• Erik Karlsson, +110 for two shots (???), +205 for a point (?????????), $3600 on DK Showdown. He’s +1600 to score. What are we doing here?

• Elias Pettersson, +475 to score, +120 for two shots, $4600 on DK Showdown. That’s disgustingly discounted. Maybe Hallam has some 2017-18 tape he can show Pettey to get him back in form.

• Lucas Raymond, 10/1 to score three goals in the tournament. His point prop is not listed, but I would bite if it is anything better than about +130. Certainly want to see it on Saturday against Finland. +400 against Canada is fine, but I’m not chomping at the bit until we see 17-18 minutes from him, then I’ll be quite ready for Saturday.

• I also like Sweden to win the Four Nations Faceoff (+450) and to beat Canada, though I am waiting to see if it gets to +205, otherwise I’ll get my action via DK Showdown and the above bets.

Let’s talk about Canada. The high-end talent here is incredible, with a top powerplay of Sid, Mack, McDavid, Makar, and… Samson? Samson Reinhart? My old friend? Yes indeed, Samson beats out Stone, Marner, and even Coach Jon Cooper’s beloved Brayden Point for that net-front spot on the PP1. That’s neat.

Shockingly enough, this isn’t much of an edge, seeing as Samson is the most likely player to lead Team Canada in goals and has the lowest goal odds on Wednesday. I mean… the Sabres got absolutely robbed in that trade.

This PP1 is locked in to production, with Sid and McDavid playing off one another, Mack patrolling the left halfwall, Makar the point, and Samson playing as the most talented backboard McDavid has ever had. These five players stand to be the only high-end players I pay any sort of mind to in betting or in fantasy, barring something unexpected, as I don’t think the PP2 splits time with the likes of Stone, Marner, and Point.

The bottom six is at least interesting for DFS, as DK is offering up Marchand for $3000 and Seth Jarvis for $2200, though neither will get a lick of PP time. Why they are cheaper than Anthony Cirelli, I have no idea.

Defensively is where I think this team really struggles. Cale Makar is unbelievable, and I love Shea Theodore’s game. Devon Toews? Well, at least he’s got Nate and Makar to ride the coattails of. Josh Morrissey - Colton Parayko might be the worst defense pairing between USA/CAN/SWE (which isn’t really meant to be a dig at either player? These teams are all STACKED!), and Drew Doughty… who knows? We’ve seen only a few games from him, and he’s yet to pick up so much as a primary assist, tallying one secondary assist in six games to go with 11 shots and 9 blocks. Yippee!

Jordan Binnington gets the call, and I don’t really care much about it, but I did see Cooper say that they weren’t likely to rotate goalies. If there’s any sort of MVP betting out there (I don’t see any), he’s at least worth a speculative wager if this tournament gets defensive.

Getting back to the top guys, I think that the McDavid line is my favorite, as Samson will always win vs. stupid Nate Who Likes To Steal My Money (note to self: check to see if someone sharp like MN Matt has a snappy nickname for him), but I also have a ton of time for Mitch Marner, who has a legitimate argument as the best two-way facilitator in the game, having done it far more consistently than Mark Stone. Connor McDavid is Connor McDavid, although I don’t think for fantasy or betting he’s worthy of being this pricey. Makar is the priority spend for me, although Showdown of course neutralizes some of the positional scarcity we get on main slates, Makar can separate in any game script thanks to his outstanding involvement in point-accumulation, shot-taking, and blocking shots.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Makar o2.5 shots -120, -145 for a point, +380 for two, +1200 for three. I think that Makar as the cheapest way to bet on the top PP makes a ton of sense.

• Theodore o1.5 shots -110, o2.5 is +285. When adjusted for position, Theodore has the 5th best shot rate on the team, behind just MacKinnon and Makar along with bottom-six Bennett and Marchand. 2021-24, he trails only Nate and Makar. He is getting PP2 run and should benefit from Drew Doughty simply refusing to shoot yet playing 20 minutes a night internationally, which I am sure won’t upset any nerds up north. Let’s dunk on the nerds with Shea Theodore, our GOAT defenseman.

• Sidney Crosby o2.5 shots -110, +230 for four and five is +550. This year and past 3-years, Sid has a slightly better shot rate than McDavid, yet has slightly worse odds in the shots department. I’ll buy the narrative that MacKinnon will defer to his elder statesman, while Mark Stone has proven capable of turning down several shots in his day, a liiiittle bit different from his teammate in Vegas. Stone and Mack will rise to the occasion and feed Sid in his highlight of 24-25 before getting back to their respective playoff campaigns.

Finland (+250) @ United States (-310) || o5.5 -115 - Bell Centre (Montreal)

First off, it is of course disappointing that Miro Heiskanen got hurt, which effectively submarines Finland’s most obvious path to contention at this tournament. It’s of no help that Jani Hakanpaa and Rasmus Ristolainen also were forced to withdraw due to injury, leaving Nikolas Matinpalo as their seventh defender. No, you are not banned from the MSP Discord if you don’t know which NHL team he plays for, but I might bully you to hit the spreadsheets a little bit harder for those showdown slates.

Defensively, Esa Lindell clearly leads the pack from a role and TOI perspective, though Niko Mikkola has been very impressive in Florida, particularly on the defensive side of the ice, and is far from a bad #2 option:

This pair playing 27-28 minutes might be enough if they can get some goals, and, well, this team is bringing a capable top six highlighted by the wizardry of Aleksander Barkov, so I would say it’s at least possible.

A scan of coach Antti Pennanen’s history doesn’t show much International experience, and his Liiga head coaching gigs haven’t borne much by way of impact NHLers, but one player who does appear in his World Juniors history is Anton Lundell, who is currently slotted in on L4 with Mikael Granlund and Panthers teammate Eetu Luostarinen.

If Finland does get a lead, I would very quickly expect this line to get a regular shift after the Barkov unit, and Lundell already gets elevated to play with Barkov in a shutdown role late in games. He’s the only piece of PP2 after Lindell that I would have any sort of interest in, though without DK showdown pricing it’s hard to know for sure.

The top PP unit is five forwards, which makes a lot of sense considering the personnel available, and it does look like a pretty sharp unit. Barkov at the point, Laine and Rantanen playing their respective flanks, and Hintz/Aho taking the middle/down-low roles pretty much fits their current NHL gigs, minus Barkov who of course has featured on the point of a 5F PP1 under Paul Maurice many times.

I find it kind of cute that Aho and Rantanen go from playing together in Carolina (for a week..) to being split apart at this event. I am sure the Carolina powers-that-be are thrilled.

Laine is in a huge dry spell after a sustained run of excellent play (when healthy) this season, so perhaps it’s not the right time to buy in on a significant underdog’s underperforming player… but for all of the talk about efficiency driving his production, he clearly leads this roster, one that includes Rantanen and Aho, two prolific goal scorers in their own right, in both iCF/60 and DKPts/60, and the shot rate is sustained back to 2021. I’ve been wrong on Laine before based on said shot rate, but when you’re searching for upside, Laine is clearly the guy. Laine also gets a perfectly correlated 5v5 line, as he, Aho, and Roope Hintz will be all PP1, and Aho-Laine feel pretty close in playstyle to Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski, but Laine will stand by the boards instead of in front of the goalie’s face for 60% of the game.

Mikko Rantanen remains a superstar, and I’m wondering how much the chatter around the trade between he and Necas and a relatively poor Canes stretch post-trade hampers his ownership in DFS contests. Rantanen is a good bit more “expensive” in the betting markets than Laine props, so I am not convinced there’s much value there.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• No DK pricing available, make sure you check back in MSP Discord closer to puck drop.

• I don’t see point props I have interest in for Finland, I’d rather take stabs at any time goals for Laine (+425), Anton Lundell (+1100), and Roope Hintz (+600). Mikael Granlund is +350 for an assist, and while that’s not SGP-able at the moment for a Lundell (+1100) & Granlund (+350) slip… that’s awfully enticing and I will shop around to see if I can pull that off for some insane odds.

• Finland is apparently going to take ~19 shots in this game. The US has them outclassed, for sure, but I’ll be firing a number of them: Esa Lindell o1.5 +130, Anton Lundell o1.5 +155, Patrik Laine o1.5 -140 o2.5 +220, Sebastian Aho o2.5 +155.

• Laine at 9/1 to score 3 goals this tournament is nice, but.. just bet +425 three times, right? I’m not sure how that math would add up, I guess, but my sense is that Laine’s not getting a hat trick and Finland isn’t making the finals, so if you are going to hit +425ish odds twice anyway, +900 for three is just an extra goal. Lundell at 20/1 in this same market shows just how preposterous his 11/1 goal odds on Thursday are.

Just eyeballing the lines, Brady - JT Miller - Boldy absolutely rocks. I hadn’t noticed that until right now. They might make the Martin - Cizikas - Clutterbuck look like the Pattycake Line, as Brady and Miller are each top 20 in the NHL in hits/60 and Boldy doesn’t hit, per se, but plays a very skilled power forward game at 6’2 200 lbs. and will certainly bury any chances that his linemates can generate via turnovers.

For our purposes though, production seems rather concentrated in the top six, especially with Brady’s shot props priced up as if he’s in his normal 19-20 minute role in Ottawa. KC81-Eichel-Tkachuk is neat, with Tkachuk entering the event scorching hot and firing on all cylanders, while Auston Matthews between Guentzel and Hughes is quite good as well. Don’t overlook Matthews, who has been in and out of the lineup for long stretches of the 24-25 season, but when he’s in the lineup he’s been quite productive. It’s hard to gauge whether the slight dip vs. prior years is representative of his injury status, or whether it is just a testament to how unbelievable he has been in his NHL career. Matthews can carry any line territorially, making Jack Hughes a perfect linemate as someone who can play off Matthews without having to worry about the finer defensive details in his game. I expect it to be more expensive in showdown, but I like the Matthews line a good bit more than the Eichel line, so I will be interested to play around with combinations.

I do not think the PP2 is dead on this team, so I would be totally fine targeting a KC81, Guentzel, or Werenski as a part of a stack here. Adam Fox has been good this year, but he’s not been Zach Werenski-good and carries risk in both shot production and blocked shot output, so pricing will be a huge determining factor in how the DFS lineups look around him. I really like that Adam Fox is PP1, however, as it will funnel more looks to Eichel, Hughes, and Matthews with Tkachuk to clean up the garbage.

Slavin, McAvoy, and Faber are all wonderful players, but there’s very little chance I would even touch those players for the minimum of $2000 on DK Showdown, as I would rather try for a Finnish blocked shot defenseman or some other forward. Noah Hanifin, I think he just stinks, as his time in Vegas has been nothing like pre-season Moods had anticipated, and I’ve cut bait completely from my 18% bags in Best Puck. Get Jake Sanderson in there on Saturday, coach.

Shout out to Dylan Larkin, who gets to watch his linemate in Detroit, Lucas Raymond, enter a PP1 role while he toils away on a fourth line that should see the bulk of PK work with Brock Nelson and Vincent Trocheck. All are good per-minute fantasy players, but the minutes aren’t likely to be there in this tournament, and it’s nearly impossible to carve out a PP role for any of them barring injury. Larkin is the most obvious candidate here, but he’s not sneaky considering his recent run of performances.

MOODS’ DUDES:

• Matthew Tkachuk is 25/1 to lead the event in points, and tied at 8/1 with Eichel to lead Team USA in points behind both Matthews (5/1) and Hughes (6/1). While I prefer that line, as mentioned above, I think Tkachuk is a great upside play here. Eichel will move the puck, without a doubt, but the points Tkachuk generates should not be overlooked. He leads Eichel by a considerable margin (and Kyle Connor too, for that matter) both this year and over the past three seasons in primary point rate, and Eichel’s shot rate is down this year. Perhaps a lesser role will bring back the Jack of old (he’s taking on a ton of defensive responsibilities in Vegas this year, and exceling at them!)

• Matt Boldy is 20/1 to score three goals. I am expecting the US to get one of the two championship slots, so 20/1 over four games feels nice, especially if he gets a role boost in the place of either KC81 or Jake Guentzel in the top six, two spots that he doesn’t feel like a significant underdog to fill in.

• Matthew Tkachuk is +115 for o2.5 shots which is longer odds than Matt Boldy. I went in looking for Boldy, and I left with a Matthew Tkachuk ladder. I would do it up to six, if offered at 11/1 or greater (+600 on 5+, I spotted +630 on FD despite +114 3+ shots fwiw).

• Jack Hughes has substantially better point props than Matthews and Eichel, yet Eichel is a better bet for the event-long stuff. I don’t see any specific reason this matchup should favor Eichel more than Hughes, so get your Eichel exposure through the tournament-bets and your Hughes exposure through this game. Me personally, I’d look at 2+ points (+300) for Jack Hughes.

• I will be looking hard at Adam Fox over shots in the final two games of group play. o1.5 -120 is decent, but I would like a trailing game script for his ladders, and I don’t think we get much of that here.

That’ll do it from me. One final plug to check out the MSP Discord, especially if you’re going to be grinding the showdown streets, and be on the look out for UD pick’ems and line shopping around the industry. It’s a short tournament, but the markets are trying to base their lines off of very incomplete information and estimates, so I will be aggressively pursuing anything I feel could be an edge.

I did notice in this process that neither DK nor FD offered any under betting on player props. We might be getting raked like crazy in this current set-up, so be careful. I never like to bet on Overs when the Unders aren’t offered for comparison, as that has to keep the lines somewhat in check.

I am holding off on my personal game-specific bets until closer to puck-drop to see if we can snipe some unders, otherwise anything I have bolded on the tournament-level I have already fired away at.

Happy hunting, and good luck!

In the words of Sidney Crosby: Four Thousand Words (exactly), Signing Off.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this recap, be sure to subscribe to the Newsletter and to The Morning Skate Podcast, a podcast covering every Tuesday and Thursday NHL DFS slate throughout the season.

Follow me on Twitter - (1) Matt Moody (@FakeMoods) / X,- and DM me if you want in the MSP Discord, where a dedicated group discusses news, plays, and sweats out every NHL slate.