Catch You on the Downside

Over on the Morning Skate Podcast feed, we’ve been packaging up four team-level previews that DJ has done for Puckluck.com and releasing them as stand-alone podcasts. The idea was to spend 25-30 mins a day in the lead up to the regular season reviewing what has happened and what the path forward looks like for each team. You’ll also get some ideas for season-long bets if that’s something you’re interested in. At this point, it can help serve as a last-minute source to cram in as much information as you can. Check out this thread for links on all of the available platforms to the podcast and reach out if a smaller one you use is not listed!

“What if everyone else is wrong?” is a question that often leads me into trouble. I am from a long line of stubborn folks, it’s far easier for me to disregard someone’s countering opinion than it is to analyze it and ultimately accept it. My DFS checklist contains something to the order of:

1. Can you live with that you’re likely to lose with this (read: any) set of players?

2. Have you moved your last player into the Flex position?

3. Did you play too many low-owned plays that are Good Plays but probably not The Best Plays?

The answer to these questions are almost always a resounding Yes, and thus my DFS experience is a bit more variable than others. When I’m right, I’m right, but most of the time I’m losing. I’ve tried to address this over time; and acknowledge that such a Ricky Bobby style probably isn’t the best for a bankroll (or my mental health..).

Nevertheless, my default setting is to try and rife through the available information and arrive at a different conclusion.

While I enroll in night classes to just Play The Best Plays, I’ll use my defaults to my advantage here and take a quick look, team-by-team, at what might possibly go wrong for a certain player, line, or unit that could lead to current Underdog Fantasy ADP being an overvaluation of what production you might expect. Consider this my written 2023-24 NHL Season Preview.

We’ll go alphabetically through some possible headlines, starting out on the West Coast with an Anaheim team that just answered one major question heading into the season.

A quick note on the structure: these are all hypotheticals. As are these || and these. If I had a time machine, I surely wouldn’t come back and share my findings with the class. I’ll list the most interesting headline I have in mind, and then discuss it a bit in the paragraphs afterward. That’s where my “takes” will live.

Final note: this got pretty lengthy, which isn’t a surprise for anyone that knows me. I would suggest opening this in your browser, as your email may cut the post off!

Anaheim Ducks: Trevor Zegras starts slow after missing camp while an unsigned RFA

We’re trying to focus on players who are overly present throughout Best Puck drafting. Zegras doesn’t quite fit that mold. However, for a super-prospect who is one year removed from being on the cover of the video game, we’ll make an exception for someone who doesn’t get drafted all that often in normal lobbies.

It’s quite simple: if Zegras isn’t at full strength, an Anaheim team that struggled to score last year will be down their best playmaker, which should stand to hurt Troy Terry, their only currently-drafted skater. Zegras drafters themselves won’t be taking zeros for as long as it takes for him to get going, but it’ll be tough sledding for someone with little shot volume and no defensive stats to speak of.

ALSO: Gibson’s multiple preseason injuries hamper his availability || Jamie Drysdale’s own delayed arrival to training camp leads to a slow start|| Alex Killorn misses the first month of the regular season with a broken finger, takes a long time to gel with his new teammates.

Arizona Coyotes: Clayton Keller doesn’t have enough help to remain in the elite-tier of fantasy wings

While not drafted alongside the truly transcendent talents like Pastrnak, Kucherov, and Robertson, Clayton Keller goes right between long-time fantasy studs Artemi Panarin and Filip Forsberg.

Last season’s performance was great, but one signal that this may be a price you wind up regretting is that nobody else on this Arizona team goes in drafts, and when they do it is in rounds 15-16.

Clayton Keller surely is the straw that stirs the drink in the desert, but without someone else (Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi, Barrett Hayton, Logan Cooley, to name a few) putting up a usable fantasy performance, I find it very unlikely Keller pays off his current price tag. If the field is right about Keller, I think they must be (extremely) wrong about at least one of these players.

ALSO: Karel Vejmelka is unable to replicate last year’s competent goaltending; Arizona tanks as a result (or, perhaps, as intended…)

Boston Bruins: Charlie McAvoy once again cedes special teams work to Hampus Lindholm

Boston is why exercises like this were invented, as there are several paths to start down for finding downside. Starting with McAvoy, there’s little reason to believe he’s not the new face of the franchise in the post-Bergeron era. At least, the non-punchable face. However, we are a year removed from Hampus Lindholm having more PP time than McAvoy. When accounting for games missed, McAvoy played 2:41 per night, Lindholm 2:26 with the man advantage. In any case, it was far from a monopoly of offensive ice time for the Bruins #1.

Fortunately, this downside is a bit priced in, with McAvoy going in the early 110s ADP-wise despite likely being connected to the W1 in David Pastrnak.

ALSO: Boston unable to find Center production || Linus Ullmark regresses to who he has been (or Swayman progresses to who he can be!) || Boston struggles to find depth up front beyond Pastrnak and Marchand

Buffalo Sabres: Not even Don Granato can sustain four top-50 fantasy picks

Tage and Dahlin are beyond reproach for this exercise, with bonafide top-tier production at their positions. The Sabres should continue to play a style of hockey conducive to fantasy scoring under coach Don Granato. However… the only other team with four players going as early (with Jeff Skinner at ADP 52.9) are the Edmonton Oilers, with Bouchard at ADP 50.6 as the fourth Oiler off the board. This is of extreme concern, as that means there must be several self-sustaining players throughout the lineup.

While Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner are very good players, with strong historical production in lesser roles prior to last season (and in Skinner’s case, one monster season a few years back alongside Jack “Conn Smythe” Eichel), there’s very little in their profile that indicates they’ll be able to siphon a hefty amount of the Buffalo production through their blades. It’ll take a monstrous output from the team to sustain those ADPs, and it goes without saying that this is a team without a track record of sustained success.

It appears that a new day has dawned in Buffalo, but the field may be more optimistic than even the most die-hard Sabres fan when it comes to fantasy output.

ALSO: Devon Levi is treated with kid gloves, does not receive a full starter’s workload || A team-wide SH% bump in 2022-23 is not sustained || Jack Quinn’s absence spells problems for Dylan Cozens’ offensive output

Carolina Hurricanes: Brent Burns’ age has caught up with him

An underdiscussed story in fantasy circles is the age-related declines of superstars, particularly those who have broken the age curves already. Brent Burns, despite being 38(!!), has been productive for the past several years, well beyond when normal defenders see their stats start to dip.

Burns is clearly a unicorn in this regard, and he maintained a high level of play alongside Jaccob Slavin in 2022-23. However, his counting stats trended downward with the transition to CAR. I’m inclined to credit most of that to weirdly low shots + blocks rates (versus his SJ years) to the move from a great environment with lots of pace and tempo where he was the main catalyst to a structured Carolina team that strangles opponents and funnels looks to the net front.

As it stands, Burns goes well before the projections around the industry have him pegged to go. Tony DeAngelo seems to have been brought aboard to run the first PP unit, and we know that Burns couldn’t function with the literal PP God Erik Karlsson manning his show. There are several reasons for concern beyond age, but age-related regression is the most obvious red flag in Burns’ profile.

ALSO: Andrei Svechnikov starts slow coming off an ACL tear in March || Freddie Andersen plays in a three-goalie timeshare || Michael Bunting doesn’t give Sebastian Aho the lift Carolina pays him for

Calgary Flames: Darryl Sutter wasn’t the problem

Last year was an awful year for a team with high, high expectations. After an unexpected ascension to the top of the league in 2021-22, 22-23 brought the Flames back down to earth, seeing them miss the playoffs while making the gutsy-and-much-applauded Tkachuk for Huberdeau+ trade look like one of the worst deals in recent memory.

They’ll look to bounce back with Adam Huska, who takes over for Darryl Sutter, a coach long derided for his focus on defensive structure and a system starved of offensive creativity.

However, when you peek under the hood, there’s not much supporting this idea. Darryl Sutter’s flames finished 3rd in the NHL in shots on goal at 5v5 in 21-22, and 6th in goals. While leading the NHL (partially due to score effects) in shots on goal last season, they finished 10th in goals scored. This is certainly not ideal, but it’s a far cry from a problem. Nobody is saying the Leafs, who finished two goals ahead of them in 9th, have problems putting the puck in the net…

Was Darryl Sutter unfairly punished for a bad combination of poor goaltending and poor shooting luck? Well, it sure seems like it. Dude could still coach, and Huska will have to show something beyond league average to replace Sutter behind the bench without a drop-off, at least based on the fancy charts (c/o HockeyViz.com).

ALSO: Jonathan Huberdeau fell off a cliff the second he got a major extension || Jacob Markstrom can’t find his game, rookie back-up Dustin Wolf is overwhelmed at the NHL level || The locker room falls apart as Hanifin, Lindholm, and others remain firmly on the trade block

Chicago Blackhawks: Connor Bedard is just an ordinary Connor

Well, this one hurts to formulate. Every fiber of my being is convinced Connor Bedard is the next big thing, particularly in fantasy. However, the reason I’m so high on him is the same reason that he could completely fail - we’ve never seen anything like him. No, not even his more famous Connor-part (get it? counterpart…) has the achievements Bedard has between international play and offensive shot generation.

However, the runway to NHL stardom is littered with offensive one-trick ponies that don’t have the all-around game to succeed. The fact remains, Bedard is 18 and has a bottom-five supporting cast in the NHL. He doesn’t even have to “bust” to be a fantasy bust this season, he simply has to fail to become a top ten center, unable to reproduce the instant impact that Connor McDavid had in his injury-shortened debut season.

That’s asking a lot of someone who 6 months ago was doing geometry homework while waiting for ping pong balls to decide his future via the Draft Lottery.

 ALSO: Seth Jones loses his minutes-munching, offensive role to Kevin Korchinski || Taylor Hall is cooked || Chicago seeks out a word that rhymes with dank, spank, and crank

Colorado Avalanche: Alexander Georgiev breaks down in his second year of an elite workload

One of the most pleasant goalie surprises of 2022-23, Georgiev was a revelation in net, steadying a Colorado team that invested a decent amount in acquiring him from the depths of backing up Shesterkin and throwing him into the fire on a team that couldn’t keep a second goalie healthy or productive for any stretch of time. Georgiev tallied 62 appearances in total, fifth-most league-wide, and stopped the 6th-most GSAA, a no-doubt elite season.

However, goalies will goalie from year-to-year, and Georgiev is unique among the early Best Puck goalie clump in that he’s only done this for one season. Without a track record, there’s no guarantee that his body or play can withstand another long season.

ALSO: Injuries continue to plague MacKinnon and Makar || Jonathan Drouin and Ryan Johansen contribute nothing but empty minutes to a team in desperate need of depth || Bo Byram usurps Devon Toews as the #2 D in Colorado, nuking his fringe fantasy viability by proximity to Makar

Columbus Blue Jackets: Zach Werenski’s ice-time takes a major hit as a new-look blue line makes its debut

It was extremely disappointing to see Werenski go down after only 13 games last season with a season-ending shoulder injury. Before his season was cut short, he was averaging 5 shots+blocks per game, a stellar number and something he hadn’t displayed in his well-rounded game to this point in his career.

It remains to be seen whether these stats (and the two-way effectiveness he’s known as a star in the NHL for) can hold post-injury, but another interesting wrinkle for this upcoming season is the new-look CBJ D corps. Whereas before it was Werenski and a stable of nobodies, the Blue Jackets have invested a lot into Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, and David Jiricek, not to mention the remaining blue-liners who theoretically could also step up.

Werenski is still the team’s #1, but his overall TOI could be lower than we expect, particularly if Jiricek is on the fast track to NHL stardom. His PP1 role alongside Gaudreau and Laine appears to be safe, but there’s more competition for playing time and offensive minutes than ever before for Werenski.

ALSO: A lack of center depth is exposed, dampening the outlook for Gaudreau and Laine || Recent-waiver claim Spencer Martin and prospect Daniil Tarasov shake up Elvis’ fragile grasp on the 1A goalie job

Dallas Stars: Jamie Benn disappears into a fine, dry powder consisting of tiny particles of earth or waste matter lying on the ground or on surfaces or carried in the air

Even with the production last year for Jamie Benn (33G, 45A), Benn rated out terribly in any holistic model. Simply put, he’s no longer any good (and even at his peak, I would argue, was massively overrated!). His production was merely a product of circumstance, as the fifth guy on a PP1 that clicked all year and as a linemate to Wyatt Johnston, one of the top rookies in the league.

The Stars can’t give their captain ice time that he doesn’t deserve as they merge the old guard with the new in search for a Stanley Cup, and they have more talent breaking into the league and in need of playing time, particularly of the offensive variety. Players like Logan Stankoven could very well unseat Benn at 5v5, and Wyatt Johnston himself could move into Benn’s bumper role on the PP1, cutting massively into Benn’s production, leaving one out of every 12 UD drafters with an ugly black hole in their W room.

ALSO: Miro Heiskanen, to much fanfare, continues to not shoot pucks || Father Time comes for Joe Pavelski || Roope Hintz can’t shake his high upside, low floor role and take the next step into an everyday fantasy contributor

Detroit Red Wings: An Atlantic Division team, adding several name-brand veterans (including Alex DeBrincat) to an up-and-coming pool of youngsters, fails to compete due to questionable goaltending and a lack of 5v5 offensive punch

Boy, hits the nail on the head a bit too accurately, huh? Detroit finds themselves in the same unenviable position as last year’s Ottawa Senators, where an impatient front office threw several assets into improving the team, sacrificing value and selectiveness for volume and excitement.

Beyond DeBrincat, Detroit also welcomes Daniel Sprong, J.T. Compher, and Shayne Gostisbehere in 2023, which on paper should all be improvements. However, the same way Ottawa’s 5v5 offense only managed to jump from 29th to 24th in GF/60 despite the makeover, Detroit must significantly improve on its 28th-best GF/60 in 2022 to make 2023 a year to remember. If it can’t, the several Wings that are drafted in all formats, including Larkin, Seider, Perron, and Raymond, will be in an uphill battle to contribute to fantasy lineups.

ALSO: Mo Seider is a souped-up Jacob Trouba, can’t take the next step offensively to meet ADP || Lucas Raymond and David Perron both cede work to the ultra-talented and forever under-utilized Daniel Sprong at RW || Ville Husso gets caught up in what looks disturbingly like a three-headed monster(?) in goal with James Reimer and Alex Lyon

Edmonton Oilers: Zach Hyman is not reliably a top-20 fantasy skater.. or a top-70 one

If Zach Hyman doesn’t play with Connor McDavid for 100% of his minutes, he’s completely toast at his ADP. That’s what happens when a player goes with the 25th pick who has never in his NHL career sustained offense for himself.

Well, I made the case here as to why EDM might be better off leaving McDavid to play alongside less capable 5v5 play-drivers, and so far in the preseason we’ve primarily seen McDavid lining up with Connor Brown and Evander Kane. Worrying, to say the least.

ALSO: Evander Kane can’t overcome a lack of premier PP1 time to pay off a mid-50s ADP || Evan Bouchard’s fairy tale postseason was just a mirage || Jack Campbell reverts back to 2021-22 form and takes Skinner’s net || Leon Draisaitl, actually bad?

Florida Panthers: Brandon Montour’s injury lingers into the holiday season

It’s a bit baffling to me how to attack the Florida Panthers. I think they’ll be pretty good this year, better than last even, yet the prices and positions (on Underdog, nearly every forward is a Center) make them nearly impossible for me to pull the trigger on. One way that I would love to do this, however, is cut off as Brandon Montour is set to miss over a month of the season as he recovers from offseason surgery after Florida’s run to the Cup final. There’s a chance the injury lasts into 2024, and things will be rough in the interim.

With Gustav Forsling or Oliver Ekman-Larsson at the helm of the PP1, the entire team may struggle offensively until Montour returns.

ALSO: Lack of PP1 clarity beyond Barkov and Tkachuk tanks several players’ values || Spencer Knight usurps Bobrovsky to take the net that was destined to be his before OCD took it away from him || Despite his reputation, Matthew Tkachuk’s pedestrian hits/blocks figures keep his point-per-game season from being worthy of a first-round selection

Los Angeles Kings: Pierre-Luc Dubois is a role player paid like a star player

While a 5v5 role with Kevin Fiala and Arthur Kaliyev is a great offensive environment for a player who boasts great passing and shooting talent, it’s hard to see a world where Dubois is worth the 70th pick in Best Puck drafts. The nominal third line will have limited 5v5 ice time, particularly on a Kings team that is expected to win many games and should be playing with the lead, further reducing the need to let Fiala’s line cook.

So far the Kings have also not been willing to play PLD on the top PP unit, opting for Viktor Arvidsson in the net-front position instead. While the summer-hype was worthwhile, the current deployment for PLD makes it look as if he’ll be one of the larger fantasy busts on the board.

ALSO: Drew Doughty’s PP role is taken by super-prospect Brandt Clarke || Kevin Fiala’s shot rate falls dramatically moving from Lizotte/Danault/Vilardi to PLD and Kaliyev as linemates || Talbot and Copley split starts down the middle, not allowing the other to take over the net and cannibalizing fantasy value

Minnesota Wild: Marc-Andre Fleury is more than just an ordinary backup

I am fairly confident the Wild will be good, and I’m fairly confident that Gustavsson will have the lion’s share of the net by the time the fantasy playoffs come around. However, I have zero confidence that Filip Gustavsson will be all that helpful in getting to the playoffs. Could he? Absolutely, and he earned every start he got down the stretch and in the NHL playoffs last season.

However, the point remains that the 12th goalie off the board on Underdog Fantasy is not all that likely to finish in the top fifteen in starts in the league (based on last year, this would mean more than 50 starts) and plays for a team that is a favorite, but not guaranteed, to make the playoffs.

ALSO: Mats Zuccarello loses his superpower - a role in all situations alongside Kirill Kaprizov || Joel Eriksson Ek doesn’t take the leap into a true #1 role, instead losing ground and PP time to a breakout season from Marco Rossi || Matt Boldy waits a year before taking the next step to an elite scoring winger

Montreal Canadiens: A revolving door on the top line leaves Cole Caufield searching all year for chemistry

One thing I’ve been watching for during the preseason is the MTL1 situation - can we find someone playing alongside Caufield and Suzuki who vaults into fantasy relevance?

So far, we’ve seen different linemates for Caufield and Suzuki each game, with Josh Anderson, Sean Monahan, and Alex Newhook all taking games with the duo. Not even on this list are last year’s top-line revelation with Caufield out in Rafa Harvey-Pinard or Kirby Dach, someone who was regularly bounced between 2C and 1W for the club. With Juraj Slafkovsky also likely to take a step forward in 2023-24, I would be surprised to see this situation settled by opening night, or any time all that soon. Ideally, Caufield is able to rely upon his world-class finishing ability to create some offense for himself in the meantime, but he will need at least a break-even offensive unit with some flair offensively to compete with the glut of Ws he’s currently drafted alongside in the early 50s of ADP.

We’re relying upon Marty St. Louis to find that combination for us, or else his ADP will look very silly.

ALSO: … that’s pretty much it, no one else gets drafted enough to care!

Nashville Predators: The Tommy Novak Experience was just a one-hit wonder

I am incredibly invested in Filip Forsberg and think very highly of Roman Josi this season. In order for those guys to be top forty fantasy players, however, Nashville simply has to score. Somehow, thanks to Forsberg missing the last ~30 games of the 2022-23 season and Novak coming on in the latter part of the year, in 50 games played for each player the two top returning scoring forwards played just 66(!) minutes on-ice together, total. Ryan O’Reilly was brought in to (hopefully) fill a top-line center role, so we shouldn’t really expect Forsberg/Novak to share the ice together much once again, but the Preds fearsome duo need the dynamism that Novak brought to the lineup on a nightly basis this season.

If Novak’s Midas touch disappears, Nashville may be in for a long season, hampering everyone who invested heavily in the NSH stud skaters.

ALSO: Tyson Barrie runs a better PP1 than Josi, cutting into Josi’s league high Defensive IPP, where he tallied a point on 83% of NSH’s PPGs in 2022-23 || Saros gets traded at the deadline as Barry Trotz clears the deck for Askarov and gets several good assets in addition

New Jersey Devils: Lindy Ruff’s PP deployment spreads production across ten skaters

My Timo Meier hesitation seems to be off to a strong start based on the preseason, as we’ve seen PP units that spread the top players on NJ across both units, without much rhyme or reason to figure out which one is the “top” unit. Ruff seems to have watched the Edmonton Oilers globetrot around the NHL with the man-advantage last season and generated his own idea on how to change the league. Sure, Lindy.

ALSO: Jack Hughes ceiling isn’t as close to the Big 4 at C as we think, first round drafters lose C and W as a result in their lobbies || Dougie Hamilton’s market share of the offense is eaten into by a superstardom-bound Luke Hughes || Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek are a run-of-the-mill 1A/1B goalie tandem for a good team, offering little spike week potential

New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokin has his first down year in the NHL

Goalie seasons are inherently volatile, as the difference between the best goalie and an AHL goalie is letting in the equivalent of one extra puck every three nights. Ilya Sorokin has been remarkably consistent, and elite, in his three NHL seasons after coming over from Russia at 25. Perhaps Sorokin is Different, a rare breed who consistently puts up quality work month-after-month, leading to an unbelievable career. Or, maybe he’s subject to the same trials and tribulations as the rest of the league’s goaltenders.

If Sorokin takes even a microscopic step back in output, to where he performs like a top ten or a top fifteen goalie instead of a top two Vezina finalist, the Islanders could be in big trouble. Without a ton of projected support offensively, Sorokin will need to have both the volume and the efficiency that he’s shown in years past to warrant being the second goalie off the board for a team that’s a coin flip to make the postseason.

ALSO: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, and Bo Horvat are on the wrong side of their aging curves, showing simultaneous drops in output despite Mat Barzal’s best efforts || Noah Dobson can’t wrangle the true workhorse #1 D role away from Lane Lambert, who has refused to hand it out to anyone so far in his tenure

New York Rangers: Chris Kreider looks more like 22-23 Kreider than 21-22 Kreider

I am being a little bit unfair to Chris Kreider here, as despite going from 52 goals to 36 goals year-over-year, Kreider actually scored more at 5v5 last year. With very little missed time in both seasons, it was on the PP1 where his production couldn’t hold, suffering through an 8 PPG season one year after leading the league with 26.

That’s life in a highly volatile role such as his net-front role. For stretches at a time, the play can go through him, but he won’t control that as the formation features playmaking decisions from Panarin, Fox, and Zibanejad. Like most things, the true outcome is likely somewhere in the middle, but for someone who we can feel confident in ~20 goals or more at 5v5, that PP production will determine how valuable of a fantasy selection he is. The closer he shades towards last year’s low-end, the more likely it is that he busts at an ADP of 50.

ALSO: Adam Fox & Artemi Panarin add a low on-ice Sh% to their refusal to shoot the puck, leading to a floor season || Blake Wheeler doesn’t turn back the clock by five years || Speaking of washed up newcomers, new coach Peter Laviolette doesn’t have the best track record of drawing the best out of young, offensively talented players in need of a rebound season. Say, know anyone on this roster who might fit that criteria?

Ottawa Senators: Tim Stutzle was anointed too soon

Tim Stutzle goes with the ~15th selection in most drafts, behind mostly a set of forwards. With that in mind:

Nowhere in this set of statistics (with Brady and a couple of similarly-priced Ws shown alongside him) do we see a top 15-level stat output in 22-23.

At just 21 years old, there’s still a ton of growth potential to crack this top 15 tier. But he should also have to deal with a bit of shooting regression, as not even Connor and Nylander could combine beat their ixG figures by 10 goals, the way Stutzle did in 2022-23. If Brady Tkachuk finally figures out how to score from inside of the goaltender, where most of his shot locations are marked, then this could be an absurdly low price for both Stutzle and Tkachuk as they make the leap into the title of the best up-and-coming line in the NHL.

However, for me this situation harkens back to last pre-season, when stacking Matthew Tkachuk with Barkov was all the rage. While Tkachuk did Tkachuk things (and he even lacks some of the peripherals that Brady brings), it wasn’t anything special relative to the truly transcendent seasons available in the back of the first round, and Barkov was an anchor as he missed a dozen games and had relatively little stat volume when he was active.

Stutzle is likely a better fantasy asset than Barkov, but the field is drafting as if Stutzle is a no-doubt fantasy superstar, and I have some hesitation to take the leap, given who I am giving up at a similar ADP.

ALSO: Hockey Canada decisions loom, clouding Drake Batherson’s season || Jakob Chychrun can’t wrestle PP1 exposure away from Thomas Chabot || Vladimir Tarasenko and Claude Giroux wrestle for the same role and ice time, ultimately splitting it and thus cratering their value || Josh Norris’s shoulder remains an issue, where he’s already seemingly lost a chance at the PP1 as a result.

Philadelphia Flyers: Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson take up valuable ice time without pre-injury performance

Philly is in an interesting spot this season, as they have a locked in #1 in Carter Hart and two breakout fantasy stars in Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny, each of whom contributed greatly to fantasy rosters in 2022-23.

However, they also are welcoming back two star players in their own right, as Couturier and Atkinson missed the full 22-23 season due to injuries and are set to return on Opening Night.

For a team who is set up to lose in the interest of their future, it’s not a terrible idea to bring out two fan favorites (even if Atkinson will forever be a Blue Jacket) to start the year as they try to find their games.

However, given the draft capital required to secure Tippett and Konecny at Underdog ADP, they’ll each need to play featured roles to accrue the points needed. If two of those spots go to underperforming veterans fresh off the LTIR, the road gets that much tougher. If Carter Hart is netminding for a team that finishes bottom 2 in the NHL, then he’s unlikely to provide many spike weeks, which even a 22nd place finish would offer for Hart and his fantasy owners.

ALSO: Konecny gets floated as a deadline target but a trade to a better team doesn’t come to pass || Cam York isn’t ready to run a PP1 with Provorov and DeAngelo in new homes

Pittsburgh Penguins: The acquisition of Erik Karlsson didn’t have the impact everyone was expecting

Kyle Dubas pulled off the move of the summer when he sat down in his new job at the helm of the Penguins organization, throwing a lifeline to franchise cornerstones Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang by bringing in last year’s Norris winner Erik Karlsson for a cost that included virtually nothing off of the NHL roster.

There’s relatively little doubt that this is a massive boost to the Penguins offense. I’m far from the person to go to for defense-related matters, but Tristan Jarry is signed up to spend a lot more time behind someone who frankly isn’t paid to play defense. With Jarry’s steam up the boards, it’s quite possible the Penguins benefit on the whole from Karlsson, but that it comes at the extreme expense of team defense.

And while I’m sure the PP will be sorted out in due time, the starting formation with Letang at the left hash, Karlsson at the point, and Malkin at the right hash is a little too similar for my liking to Burns and Couture in 2018-19, when the grand experiment failed greatly in San Jose. This ultimately sabotaged both Karlsson’s and Burns’ fantasy value.

What this also does is boots Rakell off the top unit, as Guentzel is locked in as is Sid. Unless Kris Letang walks into Coach Sullivan’s office and demands to man the PP2, I’m afraid we’re not getting the all-around lift to the Pens’ boats we’re looking for.

One thing I’m low-key excited for? Malkin and Karlsson at 5v5. Letang and Sid have spent so much time together over the last decade that it’s easy to forget what that implies - that Malkin has usually been playing with perfectly reasonable, but not game-breaking, rearguards in his minutes. I expect Sid and Letang to remain relatively glued at the hip, and for Malkin to get a chance to go wild with Karlsson. If Malkin has any juice left, EK65 will be the perfect fit to push Malkin toward his final chance to clear 100 points in a season.

Buckle Up.

ALSO: The Pens’ latest Mark Donk arrives, punishing the fantasy value of late-round W staples Bryan Rust and Reilly Smith (arguably Rickard Rakell too, as covered above) || The investment in Tristan Jarry goes south with no backup plan beyond Alex Nedeljkovic || Set to return around opening night, Jake Guentzel’s efficiency is slower to follow, putting Sid off to an uncharacteristically slow start

San Jose Sharks: Pass

Seriously, pass. There’s no one even being drafted on this team. Duclair spent about two weeks in the 14th round, while Hertl, Couture, Hoffman, and Kahkonen get drafted sometimes but probably in <10% of lobbies each.

Logan Couture’s injury stinks, he seems likely to miss some time. Mackenzie Blackwood could work his way into a true 50/50 split, hurting Kahkonen’s supposed #1 role on a terrible team. William Eklund and some other youngsters seem poised to elevate into good roles this season, but don’t display any sort of fantasy relevance except for the deepest of leagues.

ALSO: Next section…

Seattle Kraken: The 22-23 Seattle Kraken weren’t the 21-22 Blues

The Blues scored the 4th most 5v5 goals on the 4th fewest 5v5 shot attempts, leading to a lot of handwringing and soul-searching about what it was in their game that led them to shoot a league-high 10.4%. The Blues weren’t particularly good in 2022-23, but that was largely the fault of poor goaltending, as they still managed to finish 10th in goals and shot 9.8% at 5v5, well above the league average and showing that they still were able to do something different that led to a very high Sh%

The Kraken had more sustained shot volume, with the 10th most 5v5 shot attempts in the league last season, but also led the league in goals with a first place 10.3 Sh%.

Looking around, however, it’s hard to see how this continues. Matty Beniers is probably the best pure playmaker on the roster, and Jared McCann is the best shooter. Give me Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou over those two any day, then consider that the Kraken lost both Daniel Sprong and Ryan Donato - depth pieces for sure, but guys who were contributing to this run of shooting form on a nightly basis. I look around and don’t see much reason to believe this is an above-average offensive team.. but have been wrong about these guys before.

ALSO: Vince Dunn’s offensive emergence is short-lived, ceding PP work to Justin Schultz once again || Jared McCann takes a hit on a PP1 that seems likely to funnel looks through Eeli Tolvanen rather than McCann on his strong side

St. Louis Blues: Torey Krug is the offensive defenseman you needed

Hey, look which team comes next.. Shifting gears away from the Sh% story, let’s recap Torey Krug’s offseason: After Kevin Hayes was long floated as a possible target for STL, desperately wanting out of PHI, Torey Krug nixed a trade that would have accomplished this and sent him to Philadelphia. Afterwards, Hayes winds up in St. Louis anyway, and Krug is left to explain to the entire fanbase that wanted him gone why he didn’t want to pack up and leave. Suffering a foot injury during workouts, Krug then misses a healthy portion of training camp after misssing significant portions of the past two years, then returns to find himself reinstalled on the PP1.

As a recent Justin Faulk convert, I was devastated to learn my Faulk shares were probably not the smashing value I believed them to be had he been on the PP1 with Kyrou and friends. As a long-time Krug believer, however, I’m more than intrigued. I don’t know that there are enough goals to go around this season to get multiple D-men into productive fantasy rosters, but we’ve seen the percentages in back-to-back years sustain at a level where this is possible. More than likely, however, is that the PP1 drives D value, and Faulk will be left to grind out hits and blocks to make up for it.

There’s no guarantee that Krug sticks out the season for the Blues, however (as it is very possible he simply wanted to avoid the on-ice situation in Philly, but had desired a trade…), so there’s several ways this situation could go.

ALSO: fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. shoot 10% three seasons in a row? is that even legal? || Jordan Kyrou finds himself in the coach’s doghouse yet again due to poor defensive play || Jordan Binnington gets all the opportunity fantasy drafters are seeking, but once again fails to perform, ultimately ceding the net to up-and-comer Joel Hofer

Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy struggles to rehab from a preseason back procedure

Vasilevskiy was announced to miss around two months just last week, after undergoing back surgery. This is an immediate concern, not just for the short-term but for the rest of the season as well. Assuming Vasi is able to return on schedule, what will his workload look like? If he’s the everyday starter he has been in years past, this is a relative non-issue, as he’s more than capable of massive spike weeks down the stretch behind a quality club in Tampa.

If he misses time into 2024, or he’s unable to take on multiple starts in a row and has a dialed-back weekly workload, Vasi drafters could be in big trouble, particularly if Tampa is no longer among the elites of the Atlantic division.

ALSO: Victor Hedman’s 50/50 PP share and lesser rates make Mikhail Sergachev (at a fraction of the cost!) the superior fantasy option || Brayden Point’s bumper role gets schemed out of the Tampa PP, forcing Kucherov to pass to other players for easy goals but hurting Point’s individual production as a player that doesn’t sustain his own fantasy outlook

Toronto Maple Leafs: The post-Dubas Leafs continue to lean into “Grit” and “Jam” and “Unexciting Hockey”

Despite an obvious talent advantage on most nights thanks to aggressive work (and some lottery luck) by the front office, Kyle Dubas was let go by Brendan Shanahan for having a family. Or something like that.

Enter Brad Treliving, who had somehow less playoff success than the Leafs. He immediately brings in Ryan Reaves. Uh oh.

Now, they also did get Max Domi, John Klingberg, and most importantly Tyler Bertuzzi to replace Michael Bunting, all on reasonable contracts. But the direction of the franchise has changed in recent years, with a lot of offense traded in return for a little defensive improvement. It’s likely this team is too talented for it to matter.. but what if it does? There are several fantasy options that could suffer greatly.

ALSO: William Nylander and John Tavares each center their own lines — not good for either’s fantasy outlook || John Klingberg returns from his injury and usurps Morgan Rielly on the PP1 || Ilya Samsonov, #1 netminder

Vancouver Canucks: Bo Horvat is hard to replace on the PP1

The great thing about Vancouver is that we know we can ignore anyone who is not in the top six or on the PP1. However, without Bo Horvat the Canucks PP1 is in for a dramatic change. With JT Miller running the show, he’s historically had several passing options from the left half-wall, chief among them being Bo Horvat for the bumper play. As a left-handed shot, Horvat was able to one time pucks on goal, making this just as dangerous as the cross-seam to EP40 or a pass down low to Kuzmenko.

This year, it looks like Brock Boeser will get the first dibs on that bumper role with some rotation to the net-front with Kuzmenko. We’ve yet to see how the PP1 functions on-ice as a result, but both players are right-handed. My guess is that EP40 winds up holding the puck more, thus inflating his PP point production and taking away from Miller.

But it’s equally possible that the PP still runs through JT, but it’s simply less effective and more transparent without the release valve that Horvat represented.

ALSO: Quinn Hughes, having added 20 MPH on his shot per Tocchet, hits a Canuck daily in practice with his newfound cannon, leading to several missed games || Anthony Beauvillier suffers without the Horvat-lite PP role he had to close 22-23 || Andrei Kuzmenko regresses majorly after shooting 27.3% in 22-23.. I can’t believe I even wrote a number so large.

Vegas Golden Knights: Mark Stone’s health leads to limited workload and constant lineup shuffling

The cup-winning Golden Knights come into 23-24 with largely the same team as last year, strangely choosing to pay Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill $5M a piece and shipping Reilly Smith out (his salary? $5M…). With the Smith role likely going to Pavel Dorofeyev, there’s not much new to discuss here.

I’m personally a bit worried that the industry is overprojecting Mark Stone’s availability all season. Not so much the reinjury risk, but the management his back likely requires after gutting out an incredible playoff performance after back surgery. In this scenario, I’m envisioning the dog days of January featuring ~1 game per week where Stone doesn’t suit up, and the line shuffling and PP reconfiguration that would entail.

It likely doesn’t keep the Knights from cruising into the post-season, and certainly would help them once they get there but I’m not sure there’s explosive fantasy potential anyway for this structured, deep Vegas squad.

ALSO: Alex Pietrangelo getting no PP1 time makes him a slightly worse Jacob Trouba || Vegas gets a new scorekeeper, thus preventing Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb for challenging for the league-wide BS lead. || Ivan Barbashev is who we thought he was, and he slows down Eichel and Marchessault after looking every bit the part during an incredible postseason.

Washington Capitals: Nicklas Backstrom’s playmaking doesn’t return with his health

Nick Backstrom is allegedly as healthy as he has been in years. This could be great for the Washington PP1, which was a bit flat last year despite the lurking presence of Alex Ovechkin and his pursuit of the Gretzky Goals record.

Or, Backstrom’s time away from the game and limited mobility have sapped him of his superpower:

From HockeyViz, his “Setting” (an estimate of his passing ability/goal creation for others) has fallen off dramatically. Without much else to offer, it’s likely that even if he’s a passable NHL player this season, his passing will dictate the fates of Ovechkin and John Carlson, two players who are very popular in fantasy circles. If he can create enough space and opportunities for these elite weapons, they should have little friction in generating monster fantasy outputs.

ALSO: Peter Laviolette shows up against the Capitals dressed in Ukrainian colors || Every Leafs boomer was right, Rasmus Sandin isn’t able to play top pair minutes

Winnipeg Jets: Kyle Connor falls victim to a crumbling Jets’ infrastructure, limping his way to a poor season

The Jets appear poised to begin the year with Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi, which has me excited. As bad as Scheifele is in my warped vision, I think highly of Vilardi, who suffered through some debilitating injuries in his post-draft years before finally showing his potential on last year’s LA Kings.

Having already moved Pierre-Luc Dubois this past offseason, the Jets are one bad month away from blowing the whole thing up and trading both Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck, which would make the team far more similar to the Sharks of the world than the playoff teams.

While Kyle Connor’s (and Mark Scheifele’s if we’re being honest, with the 4th highest active shooting percentage among all players) finishing ability make his floor far higher than most players, he still needs to meet some semblance of an upside case to warrant being drafted in the early 20s. If the Jets crumble around him, he may find that tough to do.

ALSO: Nik Ehlers still doesn’t get the ice time his play-driving deserves - next year will be different || Josh Morrissey can’t sustain his point-per-game pace from 22-23