Kung Fu Lightning

Tuesday’s Ryan McDonagh trade triggered a lot of discussion about the future of the Nashville Predators and the possibility of building upon a red-hot second half by making a big splash in the trade market.

One name in particular that’s being floated to the Predators (and half the league), Mitch Marner, will be a future topic of discussion in this newsletter, so we’ll leave that there (no spoilers!).

For now, I want to work through where the hell the Tampa Bay Lightning go from here as they head into the offseason with an old friend and key contributor to back-to-back Stanley Cup Victories in 2020 and 2021 in Ryan McDonagh.

salary and contract info from CapFriendly.com; stats via CapFriendly, NHL.com, Pick224.com, and NaturalStatTrick.com; visuals sourced from HockeyViz.com

Today’s Primary Point: The Buck Stops with BriseBois

Julien BriseBois and the Lightning traded a 2025 2nd and 2024 7th for McDonagh and a 2024 4th (EDM selection), two years after sending McDonagh, then with four years left on the $6.75M AAV contract he has today, to Nashville for a body in Phil Myers to clear space against a flat cap.

Since that day, the Tampa cap sheet has gotten remarkably more clouded, which is hard to imagine, with an astounding five contracts signed in less than two years that stretch into the turn of the decade or later. Those five deals that expire after 2030 total $35.95M in AAV, or a shade under 41% of the 2024-25 salary cap. Not included in that quintet are Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, nor Victor Hedman, arguably the three best Lightning players today, making it so that eight players total $62.825M and 71.6% of the cap today.

Now that McDonagh has arrived with zero salary retained, arithmetic gets us all the way to $69.575M and 79.3% of the cap for nine players. Math!

With Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, Hedman, McDonagh, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak accounted for, the elephant in the room is the looming free agency of franchise icon, Steven Stamkos, who is an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.

There simply isn’t room for him in this version of the Lightning, not with a staggering $5.75M to fill out at least five roster spots to get to 23 in their current situation.

Having crossed the ten-year mark of his captaincy toward the end of this past season, we’ve seen Stamkos test free agency before, taking things down to the wire in a courtship that included his hometown-Leafs in advance of re-signing with the Lightning on the eight-year deal that is about to expire. Since then, Stamkos has risen to the top of the Lightning all-time record book, leading the club in Games Played, Goals, and Points.

I find it hard to see a path forward for this core of the Lightning, as shocking as it would be to see Stamkos walk. Let’s explore two of the paths that I see as the most likely moves left on the board for Julien BriseBois and the TBL front office:

A quick summary of how I see the Lightning’s major contracts in terms of their value around the league and Tampa’s willingness to move them to clear space.

Untouchables:

• Nikita Kucherov - 10 team trade-list as-of July 1 2024

• Andrei Vasilevskiy - No Trade Clause (NTC)

• Brayden Point - NTC

• Ryan McDonagh - NTC

These guys aren’t going anywhere. In McDonagh’s case, he waived his NTC to go to Nashville, and again to return to Tampa.

Untradeables:

• Erik Cernak - NTC

• Anthony Cirelli - Lacks trade protection

These guys also aren’t going anywhere, in Cernak’s case he also has a full NTC, but both had extremely underwhelming age-26 seasons. Cernak and Cirelli are almost certainly more valuable to the team than the likely “cap dump” trade would otherwise assert.

Possible Targets:

• Brandon Hagel - Lacks trade protection

• Mikhail Sergachev - NTC

• Victor Hedman - 10 team trade-list

Let’s dive deep on these players, all studs in their own right:

Brandon Hagel lacks trade protection and is almost certainly going to fetch the classic player, pick, & prospect in addition to serving as a cap-saving maneuver, in a way that I would be shocked to see Cirelli command. Making good on the eight-year deal for $6.5M that has yet to kick in, Hagel posted 75 points in 82 games this past season, a figure that, impressive as it is, vastly underrepresents his value to the talent-starved Lightning.

At even strength, Hagel put up 65 points, top ten in the entire NHL and tied with Leon Draisaitl and a nose ahead of Mikko Rantanen. While Nikita Kucherov’s staggering season certainly helped, Hagel tallied 2.42 5v5 points/60 with Kucherov in a healthy number of minutes versus 2.37 per 60 overall at 5v5, a clear sign that Kucherov was not simply dragging Hagel along for the ride. There is nothing that Hagel doesn’t excel at:

So… if Tampa is committed to keeping Hedman and Stamkos, they could trade Hagel. But they’d be foolish to do so without getting a king’s ransom in return, given his 5v5 production places him in the upper echelon of the league with a 2nd-line price tag for eight years, most of which are well before his aging curve would project to knock his value. Hagel is bound to stick around as a modern-day Ondrej Palat, criminally underappreciated around the league as a do-it-all star for the Lightning, bordering on superstar production when the usage/injuries around him necessitate it.

Mikhail Sergachev is coming off of a devastating injury this season, the first on his new $8.5M AAV deal that runs for seven more years. At just 25, Sergachev pulled off an unbelievable comeback from his broken leg to play the final two games of the Florida series, showing that he is likely to enter 2024-25 without any significant hindrance or training camp limitations.

After playing his way into a true 50/50 split of the top D billing in Tampa in 2022-23, splitting work on the PP1 with Hedman down the middle and being just as defensively relied upon in key moments as any Lightning defender, Sergachev’s injury-plagued season was a disappointing year full of unfulfilled potential.

Theoretically, he’s more likely than the others in the above sections to be moved, but to do so would be to sell relatively low on a player they clearly view as their #1 of the future.

Victor Hedman, however, now has a 10-team trade list on file with the Tampa Bay Lightning, indicating a list of teams he can be traded to without prior approval. Hedman needs a new deal next summer. At 34, it’s not likely to be a significant raise on his current $7.875M tag.

However, Sergachev showed two years ago he can carry the load offensively, running a good PP1 and leaving nothing to be desired on the defensive end of the ice. He’s a true #1 which the Lightning confirmed by paying him like it. Ryan McDonagh, it just so happens, can jointly serve as your defensive ace if his most recent season with the Predators is any indication of a late career bounce-back. By giving up assets for him, the Lightning are betting that the next two years will look like that.

Of all these players, oddly I believe it is Victor Hedman who may be even more expendable than Steven Stamkos. I just don’t think kicking the can down the road for a year helps anything, as you’ll run into Cap Hell sooner than later regardless and you need room for Stamkos now. Taking advantage of a vintage Hedman season, receiving assets for Hedman rather than letting him walk in a year’s time (or sending someone else out the door next summer in a cap-dump manuever) makes all the sense in the world to me.

In my eyes, it’s hard to see this as anything but the end of an era in Tampa given the investments made into younger players that make up the next wave. I think it’s either Hedman or Stamkos that falls on the sword and has to leave home, at least for a little while, to cap off their careers.

The Secondary Assist: So… where do they go?

This being the NHL, even the smart teams are often dumb. While I’ve made my case as to why I believe Hedman is more replaceable on this version of the Lightning than you otherwise might expect, and you’d receive numerous assets in return for a year of his services, Stamkos is the guy whose deal is up, and by simply not taking any action, Tampa can free themselves of him with room for one mid-range FA and a handful of league minimum deals.

So while Hedman is the best option to alleviate cap issues, Stamkos is the easiest. I don’t think you need to move both, but I don’t see a world in which they keep both without severely hamstringing the rest of their lineup (or losing a trade to rid themselves of a younger player).

The problem with the Stamkos situation is, even if Stamkos were to take an absolute sweetheart deal (think $4M x 3 years) to return, you’re still left figuring out what to do with a Nick Paul or Conor Sheary (in the $2M-3M range AAV) to replace them with a cheaper, likely worse, bottom six option in order to fill out the 23-man roster.

So if I am right and either Hedman is moved or Stamkos tests the market… then what? Who would be interested?

A few big names that you’d expect:

Vegas: Vegas giving Stamkos a UFA deal would be the least surprising thing imaginable, especially with Marchessault appearing likely to move on. Stamkos would probably need to take a lesser deal, which if he wouldn’t for Tampa he might not for Vegas, but it’s hard not to dream of a VGK PP1 with Eichel on his strongside feeding Steven Stamkos one-timers. With Hertl in the fold, William Karlsson and/or Nic Roy are two players who might not be likely to be traded, but would make a lot of sense to move in an effort to upgrade the W position and receive the needed space (and some assets) in combination with a Stamkos deal. I would imagine Hedman is not in the cards both in terms of cap space and asset availability.

Toronto: Yeah, the Leafs would be in on Victor Hedman, I can promise you that much. While Stamkos would be a bit of a luxury addition, Hedman would turn the Leafs into a legitimate cup contender. You could rely upon Hedman as your #1, slide Rielly down to the 2nd pair and #2 role and mix and match your secondary defensemen to find a pairing that worked.

It’s a bit ambitious to think Tampa could take on Mitch Marner directly, as appealing as such a trade might be, with his contract and their existing cap issues and all, but it’s at least within reason to think that Tampa would kick the tires on making it work. However, a three-team deal, or Toronto using the assets they presumably would get back in a Marner deal, to go after Hedman makes a lot of sense should the Lightning start shopping him.

Dallas: With the Matt Duchene one-year deal working out so well for them, what about going back to the well to get a PP1 weapon in Steven Stamkos that would in effect replace Joe Pavelski’s expiring deal on that top unit? Shifting Hintz to the PP2 might not be popular, but Robertson manning the right flank, feeding Wyatt Johnston in the bumper, Steven Stamkos on the left half-wall, and Thomas Harley Miro Heiskanen (editor: come on man, are we really going to do this after one WCF loss?) at the point and Jamie Benn to clean up the mess in front is something I would sign up for. Dallas has a certifiably excellent cap sheet and prospect pool, meaning their need on the blue line makes them a player for Hedman, too, either as a one-year rental or with an extension agreed to upon acquisition. With how well Harley and Heiskanen each play on their off-side, the handedness wouldn’t matter much to the coaching staff.

Some sleepers that I can see taking a run at either Stamkos or Hedman:

Anaheim: Say, know of any 34-year old former Tampa Bay Lightning forwards that recently signed with the Anaheim Ducks as they attempt to shift gears into contention? Interesting. How about giving Stamkos a slight raise on his buddy Alex Killorn’s 6.25×4 contract and installing him on the left side of your PP1 for the next few seasons? Troy Terry is the only right-shot of note in the Anaheim forward group, and Stamkos would almost certainly mesh well with Zegras or Carlsson, where his finishing talent could elevate their playmaking to new heights. With the next wave of defensemen set to hit in a big way as early as next season, a true finisher like Stamkos (and Cutter Gauthier, who projects as a more interior-type scorer who can finish from anywhere) could be the final piece of the puzzle. You have to imagine Killorn has already sent Stamkos some nearby housing options…

Vancouver: There is a lot of smoke surrounding Filip Hronek’s contract status, with a report stating Hronek will not budge on an $8M AAV ask. While Hronek’s age status fits in perfectly with the rest of the Vancouver core, should Vancouver decide to play hard-ball with him or move on entirely, I hear that Swedes have a long-time affinity for Vancouver. While I’d be less sure of this than other teams I’ve mentioned, I believe Victor Hedman would waive his NTC to go to Vancouver if they aren’t already on his list. There, he could be cushioned a bit by the presence of Quinn Hughes — particularly if his game slips entering his age-33 season — and would have a loaded forward group to play alongside. Vancouver has the pipeline to back-fill the depth pieces (Jonathan Lekkerimaki being their main likely debutant in 24-25) on their roster if they are able to make one big splash this summer. I can’t think of a more valuable player to that organization who is available (available in my world, at least) than Victor Hedman. Such a move would give Vancouver a great chance to build upon their 2023-24 evolution into something more sustainable over the coming few seasons.

Utah: A sleeper in the sense that they might not be able to land either, but not in the sense that they’d be able to afford it. I worry that Stamkos might directly block Dylan Guenther’s path to true superstardom (a path down which he has already made significant progress), especially with the sort of massive deal you’d think it requires to land Stamkos, as I’m being exceptionally careful to not place Stamkos on a team with a PP1 alpha right-shot. Guenther is already one of those guys, in my view. Hedman, on the other hand, would slot in perfectly next to Sean Durzi, and with an entire blueline worth of contracts to re-sign in Utah, landing a big fish defenseman should be their #1 priority this offseason. I could absolutely see Tampa jumping at the chance to clear Hedman’s space while adding a high-end pick or prospect along with Jack McBain and Michael Carcone, two excellent third liners at extremely low salaries who likely hold more value elsewhere in the league given Arizona’s significant available room.

Boston: I debated even including Boston on this list, as it feels like they are far more likely to pursue Elias Lindholm than either of Stamkos or Hedman, but with $20M in room and not much to do beyond extending Jeremy Swayman (plus $5M AAV on a Linus Ullmark contract that everyone and their mother believes is available for a bag of pucks for some reason), Stamkos could be of particular interest if he has anything left to offer at the center position. A weak entry, for sure, but the opportunity and fit is there.

Seattle: Seattle is poised to win the offseason after firing Dave Hakstol at the conclusion of their regular season; adding a perimeter goal scorer like Steven Stamkos on a high-AAV, low-term deal makes a lot of sense for a roster that suffered greatly from the loss of shooting talent in the form of Daniel Sprong and Ryan Donato in 23-24. Did I include Seattle just so I could mention Hakstol, Sprong, and Donato in one sentence? Definitely. Also, Yanni Gourde is 32. 32! Can you believe that? This team stinks out loud and is old, someone free Jared McCann. It’s like every player who signed with Seattle automatically aged by three years.

Pittsburgh: Ok, enough screwing around. Our final entry is Pittsburgh, and this is my flag plant. Kyle Dubas should absolutely be targeting Stamkos and Hedman and should be willing to move heaven and earth to do so if Tampa is truly looking to quickly revamp their roster. With $13M in space and only P.O. Joseph to extend, a back-up goalie to sign, and a few roster spots to play with, no team is as incentivized as Pittsburgh to take advantage of Tampa’s cap issues. While their 2024 first-rounder belongs to the Sharks for the Karlsson deal, the following two firsts should be on the table, as should all of the assets from the Guentzel deal (PHI’s 2nd via CAR, Vasili Ponomaryov, Cruz Lucius, and Ville Koivunen) plus Brayden Yager, their 2023 1st-rounder.

Taking those prospects’ most recent baseline (not yet updated for the 2023-24 season of data yet), adjusting for the league those stats were accrued in and the age at which the player was playing (looking only for players within ~a year of that player’s age for historical context), all four of these players have some appeal, and Yager and Ponomaryov have significant appeal around the league. I don’t think the Guentzel trade was a precursor to more selling, I think it was an acknowledgement that Sidney Crosby needs reinforcements in his final few seasons, the cupboard was empty, and the team didn’t have legitimate Cup chances this year. What better way to support Sid than to get him the only things he’s never had: a no-doubt Hall of Fame finisher and a bonafide top pairing that is not Kris Letang and A Guy. Stamkos slots in perfectly to the PP1 as well, a unit that last year was forced to deploy Valtteri Puustinen in that role. In International play, they do have some experience together on the PP, for whatever that’s worth. Victor Hedman, meanwhile, has experience with Erik Karlsson on an international stage and would make for a great top four addition regardless of whether he plays with Karlsson or Letang.

side note: Gary Bettman should be thrown in jail for allowing eight years of no Best-on-Best International hockey. 2016 and 2014 were ridiculous. A four-team exhibition event next year is a complete joke and a slap in the face.

I don’t think Hedman is the most likely Lightning player to move, but I believe that’s how you do the best by Nikita Kucherov in terms of supplying him with a team capable of winning it all for the duration of his supernova period. If Stamkos moves on, it’ll be an incredible legacy he leaves behind, including maybe the greatest feel-good moment in Stanley Cup History.

If some dumbass team decides that they are one Erik Cernak away from contention and bails out the Lightning… well, this is the NHL. That’s probably more likely than anything I’ve put to words so far.

Thanks for reading!

Find me on X @FakeMoods and be sure to join the Morning Skate Pod Discord if you are interested in daily NHL discussion, fantasy, betting and otherwise!