Oct. 9th NHL Daily Fantasy Overview - 2024-25 NHL Opening Week

Wednesday offers up another huge small-stakes GPP, with a $5 contest on DraftKings offering $25k to first and $125k in total prizes, and a massive $444 contest paying $50k to first. For the UD folks, you’ll enjoy the same size of contest that filled very early on Tuesday, with $3k on offer for a takedown.

A five-game slate requires slightly less knowledge of the depth of a slate than a three-game slate, however with so many studs at high prices, the DK slate will hinge upon fitting in the Matthews and MacKinnons of the world alongside the values required to play them.

I’ll work through the slate game-by-game, showcasing each team’s lineup (as we know it) in my Player Workbook, an Excel that I’ve shared several times during offseason streams and prior to preseason slates, so if you’re in Discord or a regular YouTube viewer, you’ll recognize it.

As a strategy note, there’s a gap in the schedule between the 7 & 7:30 PM EST games and the 10PM games, meaning you’ll have a very good idea of where you stand with your TOR, MTL, NYR, and PIT pieces before the late window begins. I don’t expect ownership to condense around one of these late spots more than the others, but if it does then your early slate plays might inform whether you want to vacate the late chalk.

For example, on Tuesday teams without at least one of Bennett, Reinhart, Kyrou, and Vince Dunn, or multiple total duds plus just one of those guys, I am moving off of my UTA1 late stacks, as I suspect ownership will be extremely high on those players and I’m not making up enough ground with the rest of my lineup to warrant their inclusion. If UTA1 does hit their upside, I’m still not cashing because of the lack of other standouts.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Toronto (-185) @ Montreal (+154) ||| o6.5 -118

• The sheet is organized by line, with the top six and top four first, then the remaining players after. This is done so that visually, I can look “top to bottom” and roughly interpret the top half as the most important pieces for both DFS and betting.

• I have indexed 2023-24 rate stats to compare to players at the same position (forward or defense) and in a similar age range (for younger players, ~1 year, for established vets, ~2 years) to get a sense of how each player compares based on DKPts (subtracting any bonuses accrued), iCF (shot attempts), and primary points (P1, the combination of Goals and Primary Assists). These are all situations stats, so it is up to you/me to consider a player’s 23-24 context, linemates, and any 24-25 changes to project on top of that.

• For younger players, I have a full set of data across several leagues dating back to 2019. This allows me to compare their production in those leagues, in Shots and P1, to drafted NHL players of a similar age (± 1 year).

• PP units are color coded such that blue = PP1 and green = PP2.

Toronto looks to be one of the league’s best teams once again this season, led by Auston Matthews and his 70-goal potential. On a per-minute basis, AM34 outperformed every player in the league, including Nathan MacKinnon. With a new coach, it’s quite possible that between killing penalties and PP time that Auston Matthews can close the TOI gap to MacKinnon to run away with the fictional “DK Point Trophy” in 2024-25.

Bringing in Chris Tanev and OEL immediately gives their blueline some credibility that it lacked last season, while the loss of Tyler Bertuzzi is looking to be remedied by a step forward for Matthew Knies as a top-line complement to Matthews’ and Marner’s games. Also of note is Max Pacioretty, who continues his career after an incredible ordeal caused by two Achilles tears and an underwhelming half-season in Washington alongside preseason MVP Nick Robertson.

Up top, the PP1 makes a lot of sense, with Matthews and Marner or Tavares and Nylander each offering up a well correlated PP2 piece in Matthew Knies and Max Domi to complete the full stack. I lightly prefer Matthew Knies to Domi, though of course the duo you choose matters too. Knies still has a lot of prospect pedigree, including checking in as Pronman’s 37th best U23 player in hockey (focusing on future upside projection, not current-year play) just behind Dylan Guenther, Jack Quinn, and Logan Stankoven who range from 30-36. While Knies has been relatively disappointing, and doesn’t profile as a true DFS stud, his college stats were very, very good and he’s got two incredible linemates to support him with a secure PP2 job. PP stacks are also in order, particularly with Nylander coming in at a nice discount ($7200) vs. last year’s production.

Patches and NRob make for an intriguing punt duo, as for a combined $6000 you can fill two roster spots with extremely gifted players who should receive a good amount of offensive-zone deployment and PP2 scraps against the exceptionally weak Montreal underbelly, especially with injuries to David Reinbacher and Patrik Laine pushing players up the roster for the Canadiens.

MOODS’ DUDES: Auston Matthews ($9800), Matthew Knies ($3500), Nick Robertson ($2800)

Eight of the twelve Montreal forwards, and three of the six defensemen, are priced below $3000 on DK. Any projection that Montreal has is almost certain to come through the top line of Caufield, Suzuki, and Slafkovsky. I’m torn on Slafkovsky, who is priced at just $3900 and locked into a L1 PP1 role, as I’m concerned that could attract unwarranted attention on the top line as a whole. I’m very likely to stay away, as Suzuki and Slafkovsky are rather point dependent. Even Slafkovsky’s elite shot-blocking rate (which may simply be a fluke of small samples) doesn’t get his DKPt rate above the average player of his age. With a possible 20-minute role, however, the rates may not matter much for this price.

Kirby Dach at $3200 is a fascinating case study, as the third overall pick in 2019 was coming off 38 points in 58 games in his first year as a Canadien before a knee injury ended his season only two games into last year. He is locked in as the 2nd line center job and PP1 duties, yet his 5v5 linemates in Newhook and Armia don’t offer much upside.

Matheson appears to be locked in on the top PP unit, though Lane Hutson’s Calder candidacy kicks off at +650. If that is anything but a complete disaster of a line (I think it is), Hutson at $2800 at least has to have a shot to supplant Matheson on the PP1. I’m going to be light on Hutson, as I prefer my punts to be either unowned or have great blocks/defensive usage. I suspect the hype around him might outpace how I view his range of outcomes, especially against a really, really strong Leafs squad.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kirby Dach ($3200)

New York Rangers (-142) @ Pittsburgh (+120) ||| o6 -115

Artemi Panarin is allegedly good to go after missing time during the preseason due to injury not once, but twice. Relative to the demigods in the $9K range, Panarin looks awfully attractive at a $7000 price tag, but his linemate and PP1 mate Trocheck checks in at $6200 and Adam Fox is perplexingly $7100. That’s very hard to fit in on this slate, with these options, especially when the only viable value option in Reilly Smith does not correlate with Panarin and Trocheck.

I’m curious about how the field will view Mika Zibanejad after last season, as when you step back and review his statline, he looks quite similar to Trocheck, and didn’t have the benefit of Panarin and Lafreniere going supernova at 5v5 last season. Now, I suspect Chris Kreider and Reilly Smith aren’t taking massive leaps forward (meanwhile, Lafreniere certainly could reach another level and Panarin is already a no-doubt superstar) in that area, but if there’s a 3 or 4-to-1 disparity in ownership at similar prices, Zibanejad’s PP role feels like it could be worth a GPP pivot off of Trocheck in Rangers stacks.

Also of note is the return of Filip Chytil, who looked awesome to my eye in the preseason but is slotted in as the 3rd line center to start the year after missing last year to a scary supposed-concussion situation. $2900 and PP2 with Cuylle and Kakko intrigues me, although somehow DK is missing Will Cuylle on the slate for the full punt stack.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mika Zibanejad ($5900), Artemi Panarin ($7000)

Sidney Crosby faces another tough task as the leader of the Pens as they hit the inevitable skids, this time starting the year seemingly without Bryan Rust due to injury. His absence opens up a PP1 job that appears to be filled by Kris Letang, because I guess last season’s PP can’t get any worse?

Malkin and Rakell are an interesting ministack, while I can’t say the same about Drew O’Connor, at least Beauvillier is cheap if you want a value option on top of a $7500 Sid. Malkin and Rakell put up those numbers last year, which certainly are not good, with a bottom three PP success rate. If that can rebound, $8700 might look like a bargain for this pair in a month’s time. Sidney Crosby sure likes the stack.

On D, Erik Karlsson and Letang each feel fairly priced, and not knowing how the PP1 will function has me uninterested.

MOODS DUDES: Evgeni Malkin ($5100), Rickard Rakell ($3600)

Winnipeg (+140) @ Edmonton (-166) ||| o6.5 +102

WPG1 checks in at $16900. Total. I don’t know about that. I also don’t know about Nik Ehlers, who for sub-$5000 has the best role he’s had in his NHL career to-date, L2 PP1 for a new coach who seems to acknowledge his existence. If you can project him for 18 minutes, he’s a smash, particularly should he get the benefit of ice time against Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson, who I fundamentally believe will be a disaster defensively without Ekholm-Bouchard supporting them.

Because the top guys are so inexpensive, I have very little interest in chasing punt plays on Winnipeg. Colin Miller is an elite way to spend $2500 at D, however, and truly has 5 SOG potential, not to mention strong goal scoring odds on the PP with his rocket of a one-timer.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mark Scheifele ($5300), Gabriel Vilardi ($5000), Nikolaj Ehlers ($4800)

Edmonton’s first line will cost you over $22k on this slate in what should be a fun, wide open, hockey game. Evan Bouchard is a value relative to the prices of Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes at just $6500, and should be glued to that top line. I don’t believe that Draisaitl is competent enough at play-driving to carry both Jeff Skinner and a returning-from-injury (again? again.) Viktor Arvidsson, and I’ll refuse to believe it until I see it from this grouping. Edmonton is not a team to go to for values, and none of their depth pieces stand out anyway. Count me out of anything fancy in this game.

MOODS’ DUDES: Evan Bouchard ($6500)

Calgary (+170) @ Vancouver (-205) ||| o6 -115

Calgary limps into Opening Night without Yegor Sharangovich, who is week-to-week with an injury sustained in the final preseason game. Somehow, not even that was enough to get Matt Coronato into the lineup for this one. I’m generally a Connor Zary guy, and him at $3000 playing alongside their best duo in Backlund and Coleman and getting the PP1 job vacated by Sharangovich is quite literally the reason I psy-oped myself into a few Huberdeau shares in Best Puck, so you better believe that on a slate where value is desperately needed to fit in the studs that Zary is high on my list.

I don’t see myself chasing Weegar’s season last year, as incredible as it was, as Calgary shot a whopping 20% on the PP with Weegar on the ice. That figure was just 5% for Rasmus Andersson, meanwhile Daniil Miromanov has run an NHL PP1 before and Tyson Barrie received an NHL contract in the year 2024 (though won’t play Wednesday), so Weegar is far from a certainty in my opinion. The rest of the PP1 is very unappealing to me. Samuel Honzek got a lot of camp buzz, but I’ll need to see it before I buy it. I’m not a prospect-watcher, but you can see the data from last year’s WHL campaign and Honzek was a weak scorer and an even weaker shooter. With neither Kadri nor Kuzmenko bringing much playmaking to the table, it’ll be a huge ask for Honzek to have a can’t miss DFS night.

It is worth noting that while I expect Dan Vladar to start, we’ve gotten zero confirmation on that. Devin Cooley was sent to the AHL, so either Vladar or Dustin Wolf will get the start here and be the cheapest DFS goalie on the slate. Vladar is $200 cheaper, so leave room for Wolf if we don’t get info by the start of the slate.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor Zary ($3000)

Vancouver rebuilt both their top six forwards and bottom two D pairings on the fly this offseason, bringing in Jake DeBrusk and Daniel Sprong up front and Vincent Desharnais and Derek Forbort on D. Both duos will be deployed together.

Elias Pettersson will center DeBrusk and Daniel Sprong, the full line coming in under $14K on Wednesday night. Against the Flames, this is an all-time Moods’ Dudes spot for Sprong to let me down once again. On a per minute basis, Sprong rates with the elites, and has done it at every stop in his NHL career. This is the largest role he’s ever started a season with, and I’m betting on him to take advantage of it.

Miller and Boeser are mildly interesting, but don’t include Daniel Sprong, while Filip Hronek at $3800 does include Daniel Sprong as a PP2-stack, and is cheap enough to make me consider dusting off my Hronek fandom.

MOODS’ DUDES: Elias Pettersson ($6900), Daniel Sprong ($2700), Filip Hronek ($3800)

Colorado (-112) @ Vegas (-108) ||| o6.5 -102

The fighting Nathan MacKinnons roll into Vegas on Wednesday with some new faces in tow, namely Kovalenko and Cal Ritchie on the 2nd line with Mittelstadt. We’ll probably have better opportunities to play Kovalenko anyway, but it’s… disappointing (though not surprising) that he’s missing from the DK slate. His KHL profile is good, while Cal Ritchie is younger with a good amount of prospect pedigree, but looks worse as a rate shooter. I don’t think either are necessary on this slate, but Mittelstadt as a PP1 option/overstacking candidate makes sense, and a punt to fit in two of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar with Mittelstadt could put Cal Ritchie in play.

Mikko Rantanen at $8300 has room beyond what he showed last year to put up fantasy points, as his PP involvement (measured by IPP, the share of PP goals with a point) was 62%, his lowest since his rookie year back in 2016. He’s typically a 70% guy, and MacK should come back down to earth. They are best deployed together, of course, but I will at least toy around with Makar-Rantanen lineups to see what I can do with that.

Most of our values so far have been W-eligible, but Ross Colton is L3 PP2 with solid rates at just $2800. He’s a safer option than Filip Chytil, and arguably has better linemates. Vegas without William Karlsson could suffer a bit defensively in their bottom six.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mikko Rantanen ($8300), Cale Makar ($8200)

Vegas’ season begins and ends with Jack Eichel and a stable of defensive horses, which makes it all the stranger that Cassidy has spent all offseason switching up Jack’s 5v5 linemates and telling us that Hanifin would be PP1, only to show Theodore late last week.

Jack will line up alongside Barbashev and Stone, though this latest switch comes on the heels of a few embarrassing preseason performances for the full roster, including a blown 2-goal lead with 3 minutes left against the San Jose Barracuda. 5v5 stacking Vegas is incredibly risky, particularly with no Karlsson harming anyone who gets shuffled to the 3rd line.

Talking about preseason… Dorofeyev-Hertl-Holtz led to a Doro hat trick, and that’s more than enough to have me chasing three of my favorite players for $11300 in total. No Karlsson should leave space for Doro and Holtz to hold PP2 jobs, further elevating their TOI floor as the true second line.

Victor Olofsson checks in at $2500 and should be PP1, however he has done nothing with the opportunity in preseason and lost his gig alongside Eichel as a result. It’s possible that the 5v5 switch will also carry through to the PP1, which I think would elevate one of either Dorofeyev (on the right side one timer) or Holtz (on the left side, with Jack going back to strong-side a la the Marchessault connection) to PP1. It’s easy to envision Holtz there, as Stone would slide to the bumper and Hertl to the net front, if Jack floats around.

I love 5-man Vegas stacks with a Makar or Rantanen the other way, as the barn should be rocking for this one and the pricing really suits my eye with both teams’ production looking as condensed as ever.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jack Eichel ($8100), Shea Theodore ($5600), Alex Holtz ($2600)

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