Jan 21st NHL DFS Slate Breakdown

After a nice Holiday of NHL all day, we return with an 8-game slate. With no Morning Skate Podcast, I figured why not highlight a few things to know on this fun slate. I won’t be going team-by-team with the full lineup pages as I have been for most slate previews, but I’ll highlight a few key spots based on news, the rainbow chart, or anything else I want to cover as I go game-by-game.

Here’s the full rainbow sheet for Tuesday night, including some information from OccupyFantasy.com, which if I were an optimizer bro, I would use as my primary opto. MN Matt uses it, and he won $200k last month. He even wrote the strategy guide, so, yeah, probably worth a look.

If you’re new and haven’t seen this worksheet before, see this writeup for a further walkthrough.

Let’s dive in. All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Tampa Bay (-148) @ Montreal (+124) ||| o6.5 -105

Tampa on a back-to-back heads to Montreal to square off with a Montreal team that has continued to produce strong results, paying no mind to DJ’s insistence that they are simply going to ‘revert’ back to the gongshow they were to begin the season. The new top four of Hutson-Matheson, Guhle-Carrier has done wonders for Marty St. Louis’s squad, with the latter outscoring opponents 10-9 and heavily outshooting/chancing the opposition. Hutson-Matheson is where the interest gets extreme for me, however, as they’ve been a fantasy goldmine:

Yes, they’ve given it up a bit the other way, but in 370 minutes this pair is +103 in shot differential.

It’s day and night for this club, and after hitting on the Hawks, at home, against a b2b VGK team on Saturday, I’m getting ready to take the next plunge on a home squad against the “better” team on a b2b.

Before DFS, I have been a fan of Matheson’s shot props over the past stretch, as he is -150 for 2 (+200 for 3) with a solid 5.1 iCF/G over the past ten. He’s willing to chuck from the blue line, and offense happens while he’s out there. The price should be closer to +125 o2.5, IMO, if we assume ~50% of defensemen attempts get on net, not +200.

DFS is a bit trickier, as playing Caufield ($6900) is difficult with his PP role still looking like a total loss with Laine entrenched as the #1 and #2 option on the MTL PP.

Compare that to pre-Laine:

14% shot share vs. 33% share is a rather serious decline, and some of that is picked up by a L10G trend, with Laine missing a handful of games a week or two ago.

While Laine is a fine option ($6300), there are a lot of good wings $6k and above, and I still respect this Tampa team. He’s hit two shot bonuses in 18 games, which makes me feel as if he and Caufield is fishing from the same pool of fantasy points.

My lean here is to just play Hutson-Matheson together as a stack and to avoid forwards, or one-off one of the top defenders on their own. Hutson will always be an assist-reliant play, but did mix in a blocks bonus the other night and surely looks one of the better options <$5k on this slate defensively, floor concerns and all.

On the Tampa side, ownership appears like it’ll be held in check, and their weird PP units appear to be sticking. I played Kucherov in place of Paul on a Cirelli-Hagel stack last night and was rightly punished for it. I prefer Kucherov-Hagel here, as they’ve both been incredible, but Cirelli vs. Paul is tough, especially with positional scarcity considered (a 3W stack with Paul is very difficult to build around).

MOODS’ DUDES: Nikita Kucherov ($9800), Mike Matheson ($5200), Lane Hutson ($4100)

Ottawa (+105) @ NY Rangers (-125) ||| o5.5 -120

I don’t see a single thing here that I am willing to chase down. Panarin has risen in price back up to $8200, which in some matchups would appear fine, but not this one. The full line will run you $19.5k, and Lafreniere no longer appears to be PP1, fully losing the role to Kreider last game.

I don’t see anything on the Ottawa side to point out, things should remain the same after a 2-1 win on Sunday, while on NYR my two fringe considerations are Zibanejad and Kreider, though they are on different 5v5 lines for now.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mika Zibanejad ($4800), Chris Kreider ($4300)

Detroit (+120) @ Philadelphia (-142) ||| o5.5 -130

Philly looks decent by both xGs and Goals at 5v5 over the last 10, while DET looks dismal there as a road underdog. The main point of intrigue for me is that Philly’s got an awful shot attempt rate outlook, which to me points to more of a one-off or mini-stack build, as tons of volume isn’t likely to sustain several PHI pieces.

Two of the top xFPPG players on the entire slate are Joel Farabee (1st on slate) and Noah Cates (3rd on slate), and Scott Laughton will miss tonight (personal - family matter, per the team) with Ryan Poehling remaining out due to injury. If Olle Lycksell, Garnet Hathaway, and Rodrigo Abols make up the Flyers 4th line tonight, we’re going to see a lot of the other three lines, whereas normally Torts likes to roll four lines.

It’s not just the cheap guys who stand out, however. Michkov is producing at a rate far lower than he deserves, which could have something to do with playing with Couturier and Farabee, but his shot rate is trending in the right direction in 2025.

Tippett and Konecny (and even Frost) each look good for their respective prices, but are a bit more expensive than Michkov. I think I’m willing to take a plunge on Noah Cates plus one of his linemates (or Risto/Sanheim), although long-term he’s almost certainly at his ceiling of production. His line has just been that good to where it doesn’t really matter:

MOODS’ DUDES: Travis Konecny ($6400), Matvei Michkov ($4500), Noah Cates ($3200)

San Jose (+310) @ Nashville (-395) ||| o6.5 +120

I guess we are just doing this, Nashville. -395. Alright then. -400 favorites for the Preds is one thing, but this Forsberg DK price is an entirely different one. Fil is on a run of absolute perfection lately, with 6 goals, 7 assists, and 38 shots over his last 10. The last two games have featured 3 goals, two assists, and 15 shots. That was Chicago and a banged-up Wild team, and this is the Sharks, on a b2b. Regardless your thoughts on the ML (mine? it’s terrible), Forsberg at just $7300 is once again the best DFS play on the slate.

Josi’s underlyings look solid, as do Marchessault’s, but I frankly don’t trust either player at ownership. Forsberg can truly do it all himself, so I am not forcing myself to stack alongside him, even if Forsberg hitting increases the likelihood of one or all of his chalky teammates to hit too.

Tyler Toffoli is technically questionable tonight, though I doubt he plays, personally. With him out of the lineup, Zetterlund stepped in to PP1 and slots in with Smith and Granlund at 5v5. That led to a Monday explosion for 6 shots, 3 blocks, a goal and an additional post to accentuate a 27 DKPt performance. For just $4000, if Toffoli remains out, I like Fabian Zetterlund a lot on Tuesday’s slate.

MOODS’ DUDES: Filip Forsberg ($7300), Fabian Zetterlund ($4000)*

Carolina (-102) @ Dallas (-118) ||| o5.5 -120

This game looks fine on paper, but you tell me what to do with this Carolina team?

Carolina has been far from a juggernaut defensively, so maybe the Stars are an option with Carolina traveling on the second half of a back-to-back.

We know that Roope Hintz will return, but we do not know what the lines will be. PP units shown have Hintz on the 2nd unit, Duchene on the 1st, making no likely combination of 5v5 linemates perfectly PP correlated.

Jason Robertson continues to rampage through the NHL, with his second consecutive multi-point game against Detroit, and fully looks Back (and not the Oskar kind). I would default to JRob, but not knowing his linemates makes it tough to discern how high that interest is. I think I am most interested in a Hintz-Dadonov setup to save a bit on the stack, though Hintz-Johnston at least could potentially turn into PP1 if Duchene slides back to the 2nd unit.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jason Robertson ($6800)

Washington (+130) @ Edmonton (-155) ||| o5.5 -125

Far be it from me to suggest that an Edmonton game without Connor McDavid (suspended for three games for no reason at all, based on my EDM twitter list) is not that exciting. Some minutes could open up for the Arvidsson/Podkolzin duo that has been so good alongside Draisaitl, but I would expect Draisaitl to play a lot with and without those guys. Priced at $9000 without McDavid to feed him on the PP against a respectable Caps side (that has fallen off in the past ~month, papered over by excellent goaltending), I just can’t get there on Leon. The magnetism of McDavid also benefits Bouchard, whose 8.1 attempts per game over the last ten is tops on the slate, making him a much worse option here IMO.

We don’t know the PP1 fill-in for Connor, but frankly it doesn’t matter and playmaking duties will fall to Draisaitl/RNH primarily. We did see Ekholm on PP1 when McDavid missed a week earlier this season, so for $3900 he’s an option with some upside.

For Washington, I expect McMichael-Strome-Ovi to eat the Draisaitl/Ekholm matchups, leaving theoretically easier TOI for the Protas-Dubois-Wilson line. Wilson has been unbelievable, as of late, so he’s an option for $5200, as is Jake Chychrun on defense at $5400.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jakob Chychrun ($5400), Tom Wilson ($5200), Mattias Ekholm ($3900)

Florida (-270) @ Anaheim (+220) || o5.5 -122

Florida visits Anaheim in a game that seems like it could have the makings of a penalty-fest, as Sam Reinhart was ejected early in Saturday’s game for kneeing Isac Lundestrom and not suspended. Lundestrom remains out on Tuesday but appears to be better than the injury initially appeared, currently tabbed as “day-to-day”. Reinhart is not someone that teams usually target and of course doesn’t have a reputation for dirty play, but it does at least keep it more likely that Tkachuk sticks with Barkov-Reinhart in this one, as they started last game.

Ekblad was also tabbed as a possibility for this road trip, but no further updates. I would stick to the alphas on Florida, but Lundell with Verhaeghe is a fun two-man stack if you need a cheaper piece of the Cats, while Luostarinen-Bennett-Samoskevich is wildly inexpensive and carried an 80%+ xGF share on Saturday with boosted minutes thanks to the Reinhart ejection. I think Samoskevich keeps PP2 with Eetu booted off, based on Saturday’s units, with Reinhart back in the mix.

The Ducks welcome back Trevor Zegras, who should start on a line with Carlsson and Killorn. This gives the Ducks three.. good? lines, with Strome-Terry-Vatrano and Cutter-McTavish-Fabbri also having positive-or-even goal differentials at 5v5 this season in large samples. Zegras-Carlsson-Killorn was a limited TOI sample to be leading 2-1, but… hey. progress?

Ultimately, goaltending has been the name of the game for both sides, as neither team has converted on their recent chances and yet is getting strong goaltending. Florida is the better team, but it may be overrated the extent to which that is true on the road, especially factoring in the upside that is needed for DFS.

MOODS’ DUDES: Matthew Tkachuk ($7600), Mackie Samoskevich ($2500)

Buffalo (+154) @ Vancouver (-185) || o5.5 -130

Hey look, it’s the Sabres. Getting catapulted out of Seattle wasn’t good enough for them, so they booked a matchup with the Canucks who are fresh off of.. fixing their issues entirely? Hours after JT Miller was in the middle of a rumored trade and in the conversation as a scratch, Vancouver took the ice against the Oilers and completely dominated every facet of the game. Neat.

A PP1 featuring both JTM and Elias Pettersson scored twice, both off the stick of Quinn Hughes, but the 3-2 scoreline did not do this game justice, as Vancouver was in control throughout and managed to trade a Tyler Myers 3-game suspension for a McDavid 3-game suspension that will impact their rematch later this week.

I can’t imagine loading up on either side of this game, but at least I can pretend to consider Vancouver, with the most recent game in mind and the fact that Ryan McLeod will remain out for Buffalo, clearly their best defensive center. UPL appears to be good to go, as Levi was sent back to Rochester this morning as UPL dealt with an injury.

MOODS’ DUDES: Tennis will be on, might I suggest watching Iga instead?

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