Friday Nov 14th NHL DFS Slate Breakdown(s!)

We have four games on the NHL schedule on Friday, one of which is this year’s Global Series in Stockholm, Sweden. There’s not much DFS-wise, but I enjoy showdown and there is technically an all-day classic DFS slate too, in addition to showdown. Thus, another four-game slate preview is born.

DJ had an insane week. I… did not. Run hot, kid.

On to Friday.

The Global Series game starts at 2PM EST, with puck drop probably giving you until at least 2:15PM for bets. The main slate starts at 7PM, with 8PM and 9PM games rounding out the day’s action.

Reminder that all of the below information is as-of Thursday (or earlier) practices, and we could get updated news during AM skates. NYI is on a back-to-back, though unless Scott Mayfield has joined the team post-child, I am not expecting any changes to the roster that are meaningful. Quinn Hughes’ status feels up in the air, and he is officially a game-time decision. I keep lists of every team in the league, if you want a headstart in checking your stacks and your goalies.

https://x.com/FakeMoods/lists

The rainbow sheet functions by calculating performances on a game-by-game basis while adjusting for opponent to generate a performance above baseline (that accounts for schedule strength). I then line up each team offensively with their opponent defensively to generate the matchups displayed below. All stats are all L10 games 5v5 stats, which also means there are factors specifically unaccounted such as current lineup notes (injuries/returns) and special teams.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Pittsburgh (-122) @ Nashville (+102) ||| o6.5 +100

Lost in some of the madness that this season’s first ~month has brought is that Ben Kindel is one of two 2025 draft picks to be playing in the NHL right now (with Misa on IR and expecting to be released for World Junirs when he is healthy). The 11th pick has looked like far more than cannon fodder for a rebuilding Penguins squad - he is rocking a 55% xGF share at 5v5 and is making his team better when he’s on the ice:

He doesn’t leap off the page like a Matthew Schaefer does, and he certainly won’t bend the game at his will like a Leo Carlsson, Connor Bedard, or Macklin Celebrini, but he’s putting up results (despite a 5% on-ice sh%!) and impressing the Penguins enough that they’ve seemingly decided that the future is now.

With RFA contracts as they are, teams are more and more likely to “burn” years on ELCs rather than slide them, but the Penguins are also more incentivized than ever to push for a playoff spot, given the “value” on Kindel’s next contract pales in comparison to getting Sid and Geno back to the dance. It seems as if Kindel is here to stay, and thanks to Rickard Rakell’s long-term injury he’s getting a long look on the Crosby top line and top PP unit. At just $4100, Kindel is absolutely in play and serves to accentuate a Crosby-Rust stack.

Per Evolving-Hockey, among the 31 u21 players with 100+ minutes played at 5v5 this season, only five have an ixG/60 rate above 1.00: Ryan Leonard, Kindel (4th), Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and a guy we’ll get to in just a minute. Not bad company to keep, and with his bumper role on the PP1 he’s likely to get a few glorious chances there as well, it’s just a matter of whether he can finish those looks. I’ll spare the full details, but at this point in time, he looks a lot like Shane Wright statistically (and stylistically, come to think of it), with the main difference being Kindel gets to ride shotgun to Sidney effing Crosby.

Elsewhere, the Sweden narrative exists for Erik Karlsson, who also elevated his stock around the league the last time this narrative came around by turning back the clock for the Four Nations Faceoff as a member of the Tre Kronor. His play this season has warranted all sorts of admiration, to begin with, and he’s clearly the focal point of the defensive corps as Letang has slowed. It’s just a shame that Rickard Rakell is unable to play this weekend, but the Wilkes-Barre starting goalie is Swedish, from Stockholm specifically, and them calling him up to travel with the team is pretty neat.

Evgeni Malkin is lining up with Anthony Mantha and Tommy Novak, with Justin Brazeau set to miss another three weeks or so. It’s genuinely a bummer that Brazeau is set to miss time, as that line was outscoring competition 9-6 and Malkin was putting together an incredible season as a result. Malkin’s outlook is still positive considering the PP1 deployment, and he does have 21 points in 17 games, but 12 of those points are primary assists. You’re pretty much playing Malkin with Mantha or as a part of the larger PP1 stack, as Tommy Novak profiles similar enough to Mantha, both currently and in the long-term, but Mantha is getting results right now for just $600 more. The decision on Malkin minis is more interesting in Showdown, where Novak is a full $2000 cheaper than Mantha, though both are in the middle range of an oddly priced slate, considering what the other side has to offer.

MOODS’ DUDES: Sidney Crosby ($8000), Erik Karlsson ($5900), Ben Kindel ($4100)

If Filip Forsberg weren’t so damn good, sending this team overseas to promote the NHL could be viewed as incitement of an armed conflict. The Predators’ season has begun in the same horror-show fashion as last year, completely erasing any hope that the way that Nashville ended the year two seasons ago could be a better representation of what this squad could be.

You look a half-level closer, and you see a rather familiar refrain here. Nashville has a 51% Corsi percentage at 5v5, though have turned that territorial advantage into just a 48.6% xGF percentage. For this team to be at just 40% of the goals is staggering, and a .888 sv% sure isn’t helping matters (nor is Monday’s performance where Saros gave up six goals on 18 shots). The Nashville Predators have a 5v5 Sv% that is merely 3 points better than St. Louis, the team whose season was entirely torpedoed by bad goaltending. Interesting. At least they didn’t just commit long-term to the current goalie, who just turned 30, while shipping off their universally-acknowledged Goalie of the Future for two fringe prospects in David Edstrom and Ryker Lee.

With just five wins in eighteen tries and Roman Josi out for the next little while, now’s the time to throw a hail mary, to shove it all in, to break the emergency glass. Yes, that’s right, I’m talking about playing Matthew Wood for 15, or even 16 minutes per night. Nashville’s top W prospect missed the final stretch of camp and the start of the regular season, only to immediately enter the Preds’ lineup and score six goals in 11 games, including the hat trick on Monday in MSG. Wood is already pretty clearly a top-six winger on this team, yet he’s mired behind the rotting corpses of Stamkos and Marchessault, averaging under 13 minutes TOI per night.

And yes, of course Matthew Wood is leading the entire crop of u21 demigods in ixG/60, as mentioned above! As a matter of fact, he’s even turning these chances into goals, ranking third in the entire NHL among skaters with 100+ minutes in goals per 60. I’ll check with my sources, but I believe that goals are good. And he’s got the prospect pedigree (#15 in 2023, good-to-great NCAA production) to support it!

Elsewhere, Luke Evangelista has carved out a true L1 PP1 role, though it’s difficult to trust that despite a rather steadfast usage there in the past week or two. Ryan O’Reilly is somehow clearly the Nashville top center, both real life and for fantasy, and not even he seems to believe this is real life:

Erik Haula has usurped Stamkos on the PP1, and Brady Skjei is beyond awful. Nick Blankenburg is back doing some fun things, and with a secure PP role, I think I straight up like that unit better. Matt Wood helps, but Michael Bunting also offers something that we don’t really have elsewhere in this lineup, and maybe Marchessault is due for some good luck? 5.3 FPPG on 9.4 xFPPG over the last ten is pretty appalling.

Ultimately, on a four-game slate I don’t like Nashville much, but in showdown I side toward these PP2 pieces. Looking at Matt Wood again, Cutter Gauthier is fourth in the NHL in goals/60, behind Wood, Chris Kreider, and Jake Neighbours.

Is Matt Wood just this year’s Cutter Gauthier? Moving on…

MOODS’ DUDES: Filip Forsberg ($6800), Nick Blankenburg ($3400), Matthew Wood ($2900)

Vancouver (+210) @ Carolina (-258) ||| o6.5 +100

Carolina still displays their volume dominance with some underlying concern about the danger of their chances, but it has improved over the past few games, which makes sense considering the injury situation the Canes have had to endure. Both K’Andre Miller and Shayne Gostisbehere are back, and while Joel Nystrom doesn’t belong in the top four, we now have real NHL defensemen on each pair.

However, Vancouver has sneakily been excellent in their past handful of games, including a very strong effort against the league-leading Colorado Avalanche on Sunday night:

Nearly all of this positivity goes right out the window should Quinn Hughes miss, however, and signals are certainly mixed. On one hand, I was convinced he injured his shoulder significantly (I hear it runs in the family) after getting tangled up with Mark Scheifele on Tuesday. On the other hand, he immediately returned to the game after ~5 minutes down the tunnel, and practice saw Filip Hronek paired with P.O. Joseph, whereas when Quinn missed a stretch earlier in the season Hronek primarily skated alongside Marcus Pettersson or Elias Pettersson (D).

As such, I am projecting Quinn Hughes as in, and the VAN-CAR game stack as officially atop my consideration set for the moment. Elias Pettersson (the star one) has been outstanding, posting rates far closer to the 2021-24 stretch of play this season than the 24-25 rates he had, and while he’s still only at 13 points in 18 games, the minutes are unbelievably strong (also serving to reduce the risk that he is secretly still super injured!) and he has that juice to him. Evander Kane on his wing is slightly annoying (if only because he kills a lot of Pettersson-Hughes plays with his propensity to shoot from far out), but helps for fantasy in that if Evander is scoring, you know he’ll play for your lineup and Petey/Hughes will likely get the assist(s). Conor Garland is on the PP1, though I lightly prefer saving $1200 for Brock Boeser, who is very cheap for his long-term profile and has been really strong to-date. $4200 Boeser just seems illegal, especially since it allows me to get some exposure to Lukas Reichel, who has contributed to a very fun fantasy environment (12 total goals on 6.8 xG in just 86 minutes with Boeser!) on the Canucks despite doing very little in his personal game logs to show for it.

Linus Karlsson is a true punt to consider, as he continues to put up expected fantasy points and has produced at both the SHL and AHL levels, and this line has been sneakily solid for a couple weeks now. The minutes are a prime risk, of course.

If Quinn Hughes were to miss, I don’t think we’ve seen enough from Tom Willander to prioritize him at the minimum over Filip Hronek for $3700. As stated earlier, however, this team without Quinn Hughes is fairly bleak, so I would be careful, especially if the news is not “official” until closer to 7PM puckdrop.

MOODS’ DUDES: Quinn Hughes ($6900), Elias Pettersson ($5700), Brock Boeser ($4200)

The Hurricanes lines offer up a clear top six of forwards to use, which is not a given for this team. I would be remiss not to mention, however, that it is Taylor Hall’s birthday on Friday, as is it Aatu Raty’s birthday on the other side as well. Shayne Gostisbehere’s return from injury should in theory benefit the PP1, but in ~50 minutes of PP1 this season split equally between Gostisbehere and the rest of the D, attempts are ~20% better, xGs are 40% better, and Goals are nearly twice as good without Gostisbehere than with him.

That’s likely small sample, however, and considering the matchup and the slate CAR1 is for sure a top stack here. $18400 is much fairer than when Svechnikov was significantly cheaper, and as already stated I prefer game stacks here vs. Carolina-only plays. Seth Jarvis is getting a tad unlucky, which is abnormal for him, while Svech is too, but that’s not super out of the ordinary. One point of consideration here is something that I am sure I have noted in the past here, but Aho takes the shutdown matchups these days, especially when he’s alongside Jarvis. Overall, EP40 has significantly better on-ice numbers than the team when he is off the ice, though defensively they give up a similar number of chances. With Quinn Hughes, EP40 looks off the charts good, and Vancouver has seemingly fallen into a pattern of usage more lately that pairs the two as often as possible. This doesn’t make the matchup one to fear, but it could play into consideration for game stacks.

If you’re looking for a one-off play here, rather than CAR1 I’d look to CAR2, where Ehlers could get PP1 points along with strong shot volume and 5v5 matchups, or Logan Stankoven will allow you to fill a C spot on the cheap while saving room for the glut of outstanding W plays (relative to C at least) today.

Alexander Nikishin has seemingly grown more and more comfortable, and I’m fairly sure Nikishin-Reilly doesn’t get used as a normal third D pair. I could see Nikishin being relatively unowned, especially if Quinn Hughes were to miss, and I’m quite confident he has explosive upside regardless of prime usage on the PP1 or anything of the sort. No PP time at all, for now, is concerning, but the 5v5 rates have been pretty good, largely on par with my (lofty) expectations.

MOODS’ DUDES: Seth Jarvis ($6400), Nikolaj Ehlers ($6000), Logan Stankoven ($4300)

Philadelphia (+120) @ St. Louis (-142) ||| o5.5 -112

I’ll give you a moment to venture a guess: who leads the Philadelphia Flyers in GF/60 at 5v5 on the year? How about the last ten games?

Philly does not appear to be making any changes to the lineup after Wednesday, but what drives Flyers appeal regardless of alignment is the steadfast nature of this fourth line - they are not a threat to steal minutes whatsoever. When even the third line on a given night is virtually locked in to 16 minutes a night, betting on where production will come from is much easier.

The answer to the above question may surprise you (but really, it should not): Matvei Michkov leads the Flyers with a 3.09 GF/60 this year, and that number increases to 3.46 over the past ten games. Michkov also leads the team in xGF/60 over the past ten at 3.08, and is only a fraction behind Tyson Foerster on the year.

After a relatively slow start to the year, it came out that Michkov was dealing with a foot injury that hampered his offseason preparation, and Michkov has yet to come close to reaching the same peaks he summitted last season.

The signs of life are clearly there. Even on the scoreboard, after just one goal in his first 13 games, Michkov has now scored in three straight. If St. Louis is doing anything defensively that is leaving their goalies out to dry, Michkov will exploit it. The TOI is somewhat concerning, but the prices are reflecting that reality more than they should, and it nets out as a fairly equal trade if you’re trying to construct a median projection. I don’t have a single concern about Michkov moving forward, and I think we could be looking at a situation similar to Jason Robertson from last year, who improved as the year went along after dealing with a foot injury early, but never really shook the industry-wide funk that his slow start assigned him in the eyes of many (including Team USA). Like Robertson, Michkov is undersized without plus skating, and took a bit to acclimate. It happens. Don’t let it bleed into disastrous decisions, such as choosing to roster Vincent Trocheck and Brock Nelson instead.

If Michkov is the engine underneath the surface making Philly tick, Zegras is the show pony that is receiving all of the awards at the moment. At the moment, Zegras is the clear fantasy heartbeat of this team, averaging over 11 fantasy points per game in the last ten, with a perfectly balanced xFPPG to go with it. His shot rate is pristine, with nearly 6 attempts per game (Michkov is at 4.1), and his game oozes confidence.

Michkov-Couturier-Zegras is my preferred line in this one, but the Brink-Cates-Foerster line is back in action and checks in at nearly $3k less than Michkov’s line. I don’t trust Tippett/Konecny at the moment, since I think Michkov orchestrates the PP1 and he’s somehow $1600 less than TK and 900 below Tippett.

On the blue line, Cam York has been something of a revelation, leading the club in both xFP and actual FP, but the pricing is largely reflective of performance and none of them are shooting. PP stacks are fine, but you’re likely looking for the blocks bonus + a PP assist to reach value, rather than anything with the defenders shooting.

MOODS’ DUDES: Trevor Zegras ($5200), Matvei Michkov ($3900)

To summarize the Blues’ season to-date, Jordan Kyrou has a staggering 1.79 xGA/60, which is 11th in the entire NHL (nearly 600 skaters with 100+ 5v5 minutes). He was a healthy scratch recently, in large part thanks to a .879 on-ice Sv%.

But Kyrou can’t even complain. Logan Mailloux, the much-maligned offseason acquisition who is certainly not passing the eye test at the moment, has a .704 on-ice Sv%. That’s last in the NHL by a country mile… not good. Mailloux has been scratched recently, which is no surprise, but I just wanted to pour one out for him. Goalies, man.

Defensively, Justin Faulk is doing enough to enter the conversation for fantasy, while Broberg is fine in a pinch considering his TOI has reached another level this season, clearing 24 minutes five times over the last seven games after doing so just seven times in his first ~75 games with the franchise.

Up front, Robert Thomas just seems broken, so while you can roster Jimmy Snuggerud at $3600, I can’t recommend a full stack unless you’re really feeling St. Louis here. Snuggerud and friends are all PP1 correlated, but it’s the guy they are joined with on the PP who is currently serving as the offensive outlet. Dalibor Dvorsky joins a STL PP1 that has been very efficient, which is to say they are generating attempts and goals, but not much by way of dangerous chances. However, I suspect that part of the issue is that the chances they are generating aren’t from the home-plate area, especially without trash collector Jake Neighbours in the lineup. That will hurt xG numbers, but Dvorsky seems like he will be an elite finisher at the NHL-level. In 13 minutes on the PP since his call-up from the AHL, the 20-year-old Dvorsky is commanding 37% of the PP shot attempts, nearly all of which are coming from the right faceoff dot:

He has converted twice on the PP, and has zero 5v5 points in his seven games. It’s hard to defend him on this slate, with lots of cheap options, but in general I want to buy on Dvorsky, especially when he’s centering Holloway and Kyrou.

If playing Dvorsky, I think you’ll want to bet on him getting his first 5v5 point, as Kyrou and Holloway have played well together, with the main issue facing them being the goaltending behind them. Both are priced sub-$6k, and despite neither of them being on the top PP unit, you’re not sacrificing a ton of upside compared to every other W option out there; no other similar option has a $3200 center with a sick PP role.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jordan Kyrou ($5800), Dalibor Dvorsky ($3200)

NY Islanders (+170) @ Utah (-205) ||| o6.5 -105

Recently the Islanders have been very low-event at 5v5, and they now match the Mammoth’s year that has been defined by playing low-event hockey:

The xGs are slightly friendlier, but not much, while the goals have been there in this matchup largely because Utah is running into minor goaltending issues. It’s very hard to construct a volume-based argument for these two teams, made even more difficult by the field likely expressing lots of confidence in this spot, thanks to a 6.5 total.

On the Islanders side, I actually prefer Barzal to Horvat, despite Horvat having better production L10. Barzal and Schaefer have shown a ton of chemistry together at 5v5, so much so that they’ve managed to overcome their environment to generate an above-average ~2.9 xGF/60 at 5v5. Schaefer without Barzal is much worse, at 2.25 per 60, but an inflated on-ice Sh% is boosting his production. With Barzal’s instrumental role on the PP1 as the conductor, I’d rather go that route than to bet on Horvat-Palmieri-Heineman, which is $16k with stellar numbers.

Matthew Schaefer is an absolute rockstar, however. There will be other places to extol the virtues of Schaefer, but he does not seem to be going away any time soon. An unbelievable break-out campaign, and he’s absolutely in play at $5300. On Monday, I even played a Schaefer-Pulock stack against the Devils and got a point + blocks bonus for each player. Pulock for $3100 is just too cheap for his profile, especially with Romanov playing some piss-poor hockey and having his TOI cut as a result.

MOODS’ DUDES: Mathew Barzal ($5800), Matthew Schaefer ($5300)

Utah feels very straightforward. PP1 or bust. On a slate packed with value options, I don’t see a need to roll the dice on a $2600 Michael Carcone, who was moved to L2 last game before JJ Peterka scored twice in the third period on the 3rd line. Rather, I want to spent up for the top players here, who are performing like top players and get the Isles on a back-to-back. What better way to fight through a lack of volume than to win by scoring PP goals?

Enter Dylan Guenther, who remains this team’s alpha with 30% shot share on the PP1. It’s easy to say he’s been a disappointment, but he also has 11.4 FPPG on the year, with 6G + 7A in 17 games. The third line was going crazy with Carcone, who personally has a 3.97 xGF/60 on the year, and we know Hayton-Guenther have longstanding chemistry. While good in theory, Peterka-Hayton-Guenther was not producing, and with Carcone going, playing Guenther is a great way to capture nearly all of the upside this lineup tweak creates, and I will always be a Hayton guy so saving over $2000 from Cooley and correlating could be the move.

The top line is productive, but is absolutely running hot given expectations, and might not be worth $19k. On this slate, that really doesn’t matter though, as they are largely competing with only CAR1 at that price, and I suspect at lower ownership (though not much lower). I prefer leaving off a Keller or Schmaltz for Guenther. I am not much of a Cooley guy, either, but it’s very difficult to play 3 Ws in a stack here without a C, given what the slate is offering us. He undeniably has upside, but I think we’re a bit in front of our skis on Cooley, who has a 16% on-ice Sh% at the moment and some very poor impacts.

Mikhail Sergachev is a (boring) option, and the rest of the D corps is similarly boring. Ian Cole has 25 blocks in the last ten, and at $2800 is a perfectly viable punt option. I am just grateful to have a punt D option here that is not Nate Schmidt, who has done absolutely nothing with the role vacated by Sean Durzi. Ian Cole also has 4 primary assists over those ten games, so his xFPPG numbers look stellar as a result. The blocks bonus is the main appeal, of course.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Guenther ($6500), Barrett Hayton ($3900), Ian Cole ($2800)

As always, thanks for reading!

Follow me on X @FakeMoods, and to subscribe to this newsletter. I write ~once a week during the NHL DFS season, previewing DFS slates or reviewing the major contests on DraftKings. You should also subscribe to DJ Mitchell’s YouTube channel, where we stream MSP live (or post right after recording) on Monday and Wednesday nights. We plan to be live on Saturday as well to go over the massive day of games around the league. I am posting some stuff on my own personal YT channel as well, with a few pre-season Underdog drafts up at the moment and our preseason betting deep dive. And join the Discord (DM me if you want in the MSP Discord), if you somehow haven’t already. The Morning Skate Podcast is on iTunes, Sticher, Spotify, and (probably) any other podcast app of your choosing!