Friday Dec 5th NHL DFS Slate Breakdown

A Friday five-gamer is 25% more work than I usually do. Can I be efficient and avoid this being a 4AM endeavor? Probably not? Well then. (Editor: Cloudfare went down scarily close to 4AM. It’s apparently something affecting the planet as a whole. Is it me? Did I do this somehow?)

Thank goodness for Ryan Fluornoy, or else I may have just gone to bed. The NHL has been rude to me. But you should definitely still read what I have to say. I was told by one of the best DFS players in the industry that he trusted no one more to tell him about the good plays and to cut through the noise of a slate.. but that it didn’t translate into good DFS lineups.

This was nearly ten years ago. He’s still active and in the space, he sure knows what he’s doing. Me? Well, I don’t. I do… but I don’t. You get it. The point is, some things never change.

On to Friday.

The main slate starts at 7PM EST with two games (Winnipeg dropping the puck at 6PM local, don’t be surprised by that!), with 8PM, 9PM, and 10PM games rounding out the day’s action.

Reminder that all of the below information is as-of Thursday (or earlier) practices, and we could get updated news during AM skates. I went ahead and made some aggressive overhauls of some lineups in an effort to 1) be correct and 2) actually have something to write about. But you’re going to want to confirm those for yourself.

I keep lists of beat writers for every team in the league, if you want a headstart in checking your stacks and your goalies. The NHL one includes all 32 teams and is useful in the lead up to a big slate, or as your Twitter homepage.

https://x.com/FakeMoods/lists

The rainbow sheet functions by calculating performances on a game-by-game basis while adjusting for opponent to generate a performance above baseline (that accounts for schedule strength). I then line up each team offensively with their opponent defensively to generate the matchups displayed below. All stats are all L10 games 5v5 stats, which also means there are factors specifically unaccounted such as current lineup notes (injuries/returns) and special teams.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Vegas (-130) @ New Jersey (+110) ||| o5.5 -130

Vegas has been… average… lately, even with Mark Stone back. I promise not to make this a full 1,000 word take down of Braeden Bowman. But I can’t imagine anchoring your franchise center to an ECHL player is a great idea.

Vegas has struggled over the last little while, but we cannot blame Shea Theodore, who unbelievably is putting up a Jaccob Slavin-esque year, complete with the offensive uninvolvement:

There may be a light at the end of this tunnel, however, as over the last ten games Shea Theodore has 9 points (7 in the first 16 games of the year) and has upped his shot volume to 5.7 attempts per game (up from 5.3 on the year as a whole). The PP1 job will probably not materialize, but with Mark Stone back for four games the PP1 has only struck twice, and looked rather dysfunctional against the Blackhawks, so you can’t rule it out entirely. At $4900, Shea Theodore is a top defensive play, especially if you want to stack Jack Eichel.

On Bowman, it’s clear that there’s nothing here that will elevate Jack Eichel’s game, and while on-ice results have been fine together, it’s noteworthy that Jack Eichel’s shot rate has fallen ~10% (and the point rate 25%+) versus when Mark Stone or Mitch Marner alongside Jack. The points could be luck-driven (though, again, having a player who sucks on the ice doesn’t exactly help you score goals, so I can use the lack of goals as well to bolster that argument). I just don’t see a reason this player should be in the top six of a legitimate contender:

So.. even as an overager he could barely outperform the average OHL player, and then he shows up in the AHL and does… nothing? The reason he is in the NHL is that he started the 25-26 season with 7 goals in 12 games… on 16 shots. He’s carried through that luck to the NHL, shooting 21.7% in his 11 games. The clock will strike midnight soon, but until then Jack Eichel takes the hit. The fact that Jack also remains $8800 is bewildering, as he’s clearly not on the level of the other upper-$8K players on DraftKings with his fantasy performances.

The VGK PP1 would be the only spot of interest outside of Theodore, but New Jersey is quite effective on the PK and are fairly healthy among their defensively-oriented players:

Pavel Dorofeyev and Tomas Hertl are owed slightly better results than they’ve gotten over the last ten games, but balance that with Mark Stone back (and he and Marner taking up their own line entirely) turning the duo into a legitimate third line, with 14-15 minutes potential. At these prices, I’m not worried that I am missing out on anything.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jack Eichel ($8800), Shea Theodore ($4900)

Last game against Dallas, Keefe broke up the top line, which if it re-unites is now properly priced, including Timo/Nico above Jesper Bratt. They would be in play, but similar to the Vegas matchup, VGK has a very good PK, and the 5v5 matchup isn’t anything to write home about, clashing with Eichel and Theodore.

This more balanced lineup they went with, moving Noesen to the top line and Bratt to the third line, catches my eye however. To the eye-test, Cody Glass has looked pretty good. I’m a long-time Glass guy, I tried to give him passes in each stop thus far, so take this with a grain of salt. But he and Connor Brown looked good to me, and I was pleased to see that in their ~70 minutes this year without Paul Cotter (who is more of a north-south player, which Connor Brown sort of covers already?), the results bear that out:

Mix in Jesper Bratt, an excellent playmaker, playdriver, and puck carrier, I like Cody Glass’ ability to find soft spots on the ice and Connor Brown’s drive to the front of the net. No PP2 time for either Glass or Brown keeps me from fully getting on board with this line stack, but I might just be foolish enough to take the plunge in the near future. In this spot, possibly, but definitely in softer matchups (with less depth down the lineup).

Timo Meier is a top play on any DFS slate he is on, so long as Jack Hughes is nowhere to be found. If I am counting properly, this marks game #11 the Devils have played without Hughes, and in the prior ten games Timo has been the 13th best xFPPG player in the entire NHL, 10th if you only count players who’ve participated in all ten games of that stretch. Even $7400 is a tad light for that profile, though there’s an efficiency problem with Timo that limits his nuclear ceiling. He’s a top play, but probably not the best play, while Nico has 13 points in these 10 games but is quite pricey and definitely running hot. Noesen makes the stack cheaper, but god would I love for that to be Arseny Gritsyuk.

NJ defensemen are a total mess. Simon Nemec has been getting the most PP time, but he’s been abjectly horrible (especially on defense) outside of the game he put the team on his back and tallied a hat trick against the Hawks. Dougie Hamilton has been slow to reacclimate on his return to the lineup, and Luke Hughes is shooting a ton but not much else positive. I’d wait for this situation to sort itself out, especially with all three north of $4k and Dougie at $5.4k

MOODS’ DUDES: Timo Meier ($7400), Arseny Gritsyuk ($3200), Cody Glass ($2500)

Buffalo (+114) @ Winnipeg (-135) ||| o6.5 +105

The Sabres aren’t as bad as they look on their worst nights, and they aren’t nearly as good as they look on their best nights. Wednesday classifies as the former, as they managed to give up a whopping FIVE POINT ONE expected goals to the Philadelphia Flyers. As you can imagine, that’s gonna leave a mark:

… The Sabres were playing really, really well, and have for most of this season, on the defensive end. Over ten games, they are still a below average matchup. The sportsbook odds do reflect this, as the road Sabres are just a +114 underdog, so I’m curious what the field will do with this spot. Winnipeg, on the road in Montreal, was a 20-25%ish stack on Wednesday night, though there were fewer places to spend up on that slate.

I have a ton of respect for Winnipeg defensively, especially now that Neal Pionk is back in and basically everything is in order there, minus Hellebuyck, so my only point of interest is Josh Norris. A forever Moods Dude, Norris has battled injuries constantly for the past several years, including multiple troubling shoulder injuries. He is back and looks great, continuing his pre-season chemistry in the early going with Tage and Benson. Norris offers a bonafide weapon on the PP1 that even a JJ Peterka couldn’t bring to the table, and I’m very curious to see how much better Rasmus Dahlin can facilitate with two howitzers on either wing of his.

In searching for Norris stuff on my timeline, I came across this from 2022. Hockey rules.

He’s not going to be much of a rate shooter, especially at 5v5, but with Benson on the line, we’re looking at a player who is the perfect fantasy maelstrom: he generates lots of offense and uses none of it himself. His shot is going to be so useful on this PP1 if he can stay healthy. Tage’s $7700 tag is appropriate, but not fantastic, while in this role I have Norris mentally as more of a $6500 player in a neutral matchup. Knock off some for the Jets and the road and $5300 is fine, but probably too cheap. I’m probably riding on the Norris train until I get thrown out of the building, at this point.

Rasmus Dahlin was the only player who showed up to Philadelphia, and has looked really solid since his return from overseas. The mental part of the game is hard to discern, but it’s not hard to spin a narrative that whatever specifics are going on in his personal life (his fiancee had heart transplant surgery over the summer) weighed on him earlier in the year.

The on-ice process has been stellar lately, while the results don’t show it.

The first black line (5v5 offense) is skyrocketing, while the Sv% behind him (the second red line) is tanking, despite incredible on-ice defensive numbers.

I’ll go so far as to say Rasmus is owed a goal:

MOODS’ DUDES: Tage Thompson ($7700), Rasmus Dahlin ($6400), Josh Norris ($5300)

WPG’s top line is quite good, but is heavily reliant on efficient production:

A 15% on-ice Sh% is high, but it is actually not that crazy - in 1100 minutes over the previous two seasons, this line is at 2.6 xGF/60 and is shooting 12%. This is just kinda what they do.

I have a suspicion that the field is going to focus on Buffalo’s negatives far more than their positives, and I have little interest in betting on an offensive explosion from this game, especially at high prices. I prefer the Buffalo side.

The middle six of WPG is fairly interesting solely due to their extremely low prices. $9800 for the second line, featuring three PP players and Perfetti on the top unit, or $8300 for the third line. I prefer L2 here, and in 100 minutes they’ve actually been perfectly average and are shooting 4%. Perfetti actually was bumped from PP1 last game in favor of Iafallo, though they had just one opportunity, did not score, and it came on the heels of a rather long WPG2 shift. See if there’s any confirmation on PP units, but Perfetti is clearly better than Iafallo, so… yeah.

I’m not huge on Josh Morrissey at this price, and Neal Pionk correlates better with WPG2, so I guess I prefer saving the $1900. He shoots more and is a better double-bonus candidate, even if Morrissey has sufficiently greater point upside to make up for it.

MOODS’ DUDES: Neal Pionk ($4300), Cole Perfetti ($3900), Vladislav Namestnikov ($2900)

San Jose (+235) @ Dallas (-290) ||| o6.5 +114

I am so in on the Will Smith experience, and it’s inexcusable that he’s $2800 less than Macklin Celebrini. The dude is just a straight up better fantasy player.

In 314 minutes together this year at 5v5, Celebrini has 2.69 P1/60 and 11.15 iCF/60, while Smith has… exactly 2.69 P1/60, while adding three and a half attempts per 60 (14.81 iCF/60). They both split PP shots right down the middle, too, 25% to 25%. It’s simply psychotic stuff from Will Smith, who seems to have arrived at the perfect time for the Sharks to maintain their playoff bubble status.

All that said, this matchup is brutal, as Miro-Lindell has been one of the league’s best d-pairs, and there’s nothing left after them. At home, Dallas is going to be able to choose to defend one line well, and that will be the Celebrini line. The rest of the SJ lineup is too bad to capitalize on the other matchups.

I may play Will Smith as a one-off anyway, to peacock my alpha dominance, but I can’t recommend it in good faith.

There are “changes coming” to the lines we saw in practice on Thursday, so the only thing I am looking for is anyone but Klingberg on the PP1 and possible a William Eklund sighting on L1 instead of Toffoli. Those, plus Klingberg being outright scratched, would improve SJ1’s outlook. If Will Smith loses Celebrini altogether, then it is peak panic time outside of a rare Gaudette top-line sighting. There are a lot of viable punts, I don’t think San Jose does it for me at any position here.

Woockey knows puck. Support him if you want fantastic data and visuals, it’s the best value for the hockey gambler I can suggest outside of subscribing to my free newsletter.

MOODS’ DUDES: Will Smith ($5400)

This player is going to be left off of Team USA:

The Dallas Stars as a team have struggled at 5v5. You’ll never guess their one shining light:

Jason Robertson rocks. He makes everyone around him rock. Bill Guerin is truly the dumbest man in the sport of hockey (a hotly contested field) if he makes good on his campaign promises and leaves JRob off the roster for fucking Brock Nelson. I’m already prepping my Tre Kronor chants. The Germans would be a fun story, too.

Jason Robertson is a preposterously good hockey player, and he gets a matchup with the San Jose Sharks. I don’t need to say much more. His production has been outrageous, and he ranks top five in goals, points, shots, and ixGs.

And he should be better.

Over the five full NHL seasons Robertson has played to this point, he has had a point on ~72% of the goals that are scored while he’s on the ice. So far this season, that number (IPP, or Individual Points Percentage) is 61%.

All Dallas roads lead through Robo, and in order of preference I am stacking him with Roope Hintz, Wyatt, Jamie Benn, and Mikko Rantanen. Miro Heiskanen is a bit pricey, his increased TOI without Harley has led to a significant reduction in his fantasy stat rates, which I think is more reflective of how he manages his minutes without the secondary horse to pull some weight.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jason Robertson ($9000), Roope Hintz ($6000), Wyatt Johnston ($7000)

Utah (-130) @ Vancouver (+110) ||| o6.5 +100

Utah redesigned their lineup ahead of Wednesday’s showdown on national television in Anaheim… and it worked to perfection in their 7-0 win that was over by early in the 2nd period.

Most encouragingly, their offensive explosion came after a few weeks of progressively more Utah-style hockey, a run-and-gun mentality that better suits their personnel:

They were due for a big night, but there’s one big but to throw in there.

Their big But had no points. In a seven-goal outburst. And now they head into Vancouver to face off with the league’s last-place team.

Daniil But made his NHL debut on Wednesday, the former #12 pick in 2023. But crushed the KHL at age 19 after a rather successful age-18 season there as well. His AHL production has been fantastic, performing at nearly a point-per-game immediately and averaging over 2.5 shots per game, showing no hesitation in adjusting to the North American ice. His AHL highlights are even better. Run, don’t walk, to your nearest work bathroom stall and giggle like a child for five minutes as you scroll this page of highlights. He’s massive and looks to be quite skilled, which is always a fun mix.

To expand on Daniil But further (that’s what she said) (really immature people are going to love this kid…), a comp that comes up when you analyze his teenaged KHL production:

Dmitri Voronkov! The only player on this list to also be freakishly sized (Voronkov is listed at 30 pounds heavier by the NHL, but both are 6’5), Voronkov at 19/20 looked quite similar to But, and actually back-tracked offensively in his 21/22 seasons.

But leaving for the United States this past summer could look really, really good if he follows the same trajectory Dmitri Voronkov did, without the two years of relative stagnation Voronkov showed. But has significantly more draft pedigree, being a first rounder, but even if But was just Dmitri Voronkov (eventually, that is), he’d fit in amazingly well with this Mammoth team.

Playing with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, But has an immediate opportunity to impact the lineup, and in his debut saw PP2 time. I’m curious if Barrett Hayton draws back in for this one, as that could cost him a PP spot, and I am equally curious to see how Tourigny uses him in tighter games. Is he limited to 12-13 minutes as a rookie, or will he be given relatively free rein to go do his thing?

Oh, and by the way, Dylan Guenther is a point-per-game player against the Canucks, the organization that gave him up for OEL and Conor Garland (which was essentially a cap dump). His seven games are tied for the most games played against any opponent with a point-per-game across the league. Dylan Guenther revenge is a dish best served.. Cool?

Oh, and Utah had a new top line last game, Keller-Schmaltz-Peterka. Peterka was even on the PP1, though he took Schmaltz spot, Peterka smashed, and is now $4200. Clayton Keller is good, and is one of the better (sadder?) stories of the past week. Sean Durzi is back on the PP2. That’s all fun, and the matchup is excellent.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Guenther ($6300), Logan Cooley ($5600), Daniil But ($2700)

Not to be outdone by Daniil But, Vancouver is also trying to appeal to my proclivities on Thursday night, elevating Linus Karlsson to the top line alongside Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk. Evander Kane looks set to miss this game with the flu, and Linus Karlsson was impressive enough against Colorado that he even got to go out for the empty net opportunity.

Linus Karlsson has been interesting for some time, dating back to his 2022 breakout season in the SHL. In 52 games, he had 179 shots and produced an insane point rate. In fact, if you look at my dataset and sort by point rate among u22 players (Karlsson turned 22 that year) in both the SHL and Liiga, a ton of relevant names pop up:

Linus Karlsson built on that in the AHL, posting one of the best offensive stretches over the past few AHL seasons in last year’s half-season before he got the NHL promotion. His TOI has been impossible to come by, so even though he’s posted good NHL rates as well, it hasn’t led to much production.

Until now, that is. Top line with Elias Pettersson is no joke, and even if he’s not a regular winger, if EP40 plays 23 minutes, I think Karlsson is a safe bet for 16 minutes like he got last game. He’s averaged 10:12 this year, so this is a significant promotion, and there are hefty rates for him to fall back on. Linus Karlsson may well be the best punt option of the entire slate, and I am fascinated to find out if he’s a typical AAAA player, too good for the AHL but not anything special at this level, or if we’ve uncovered a diamond in the rough for a team that could desperately use the injection.

Quinn Hughes is $6700 and the narrative could spin against him. He’s been one of the best fantasy defensemen in the league all year and is looking as healthy as he has looked to-date. While I prefer the Utah side, I don’t think they dominate this game in a way that renders Quinn Hughes as disinterested as he was on Tuesday.

It is lovely that Brock Boeser has finally shed offensive black hole David Kampf, but I am not convinced Max Sassson is much better. It’s worth a plunge though, for the Boeser folks, at just $4200. He’s been shooting quite a bit as of late.

MOODS’ DUDES: Quinn Hughes ($6700), Brock Boeser ($4200), Linus Karlsson ($2500)

Washington (-142) @ Anaheim (+120) ||| o6.5 -115

Justin Sourdif’s injury keeps Connor McMichael in the general zeitgeist of NHL DFS for the same reason Nic Dowd’s injury did: When Carbery needs to play McMichael down the middle, he spreads his wings and flies. The entirety of WSH2, despite not having played together for much of this ten-game stretch, is crushing over that span, averaging 34 expected DKPts and 32 actuals as a trio, priced at just $15.1k. It is unlikely that Protas gets PP time, but Wilson is a fixture on the top unit and McMichael will definitely mix in with Ovi and control the flow of PP2, so the production seems likely to stick against the Ducks. I have slight TOI concerns with Dowd back, even if Sourdif was catching a nice role that McMichael is filling now, just because Brandon Duhaime on the 4th line gives me the sense that they’ll use that line in close games too, unlike before where Duhaime was L3 and they just benched L4 late.

You may be shocked to learn that Lukas Dostal was papering over a ton of defensive problems, but being let off the leash to fix problems offensively has saved a ton of face this year in a way that last year’s coaching staff was unwilling to try. It’s been the case virtually all season, but Ducks games are attackable from every angle for the foreseeable future.

Jakob Chychrun and Alex Ovechkin need no invitation nor an introduction. They’re having seasons for the ages, Ovi literally for the age at which he’s continuing to do this shit and Chychrun because he’s raced himself to the absolute top tier of the fantasy defenseman world.. and it all seems super sustainable! He’s nestled himself right alongside Cale Makar and Zach Werenski in virtually every stat (and is lapping the league in ixG from a defenseman, which rocks), and if John Carlson misses this game too the TOI will even match. At their respective prices, the production + matchup just don’t seem priced in.

Ryan Leonard is another arrival on the fantasy scene. I worry a bit about how sustainable a 4-point, 6-shot effort is when your linemates are Nic Dowd and Ethen Frank (Connor McMichael? No problem, sustain away!), but the PP1 role is nice and the price tag of $4000 is a great way to limit concerns. Ultimately, I think Ovi and Chychrun are better plays, and McMichael fills a C position, despite my slight workload concerns, so that sets my Moods Dudes entry for the evening.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jakob Chychrun ($6900), Alex Ovechkin ($6800), Connor McMichael ($4300)

Lastly… The Ducks. We know their good players. I don’t know how they’ll be assembled. Will there be bad players like Ryan Strome or Frank Vatrano thrown into the top six mix? Maybe! I don’t think so, however, and I think we get another swing at Leo with Cutter and Terry to combat the PTerodactyl line of Protas and Tom Wilson.

As long as the right players are in the top six, whoever plays with Leo is my favorite. I’m a big Mason McTavish guy, and he has been PP1, so if that sticks, I’m game to try that out too, as the price tag couldn’t be friendlier and he’s not been too dissimilar from prior seasons’ McTavish, he just hasn’t gone on a streak like he has in the past. He’s also been a bit dogged by penalties, a Coach Q no-no. A PP1 job is the easiest way to start one of those, and is a good sign he’s worked his way through any distrust.

What I really want to discuss is what the fuck we are doing with Drew Helleson. This guy fucking sucks. Get him out of this lineup. Ian Moore has come in and looked like another ferocious attacker, and his tenacity is playing well defensively in sheltered minutes too.

Meanwhile, this is Drew Helleson:

He’s single-handedly sabotaging what should be a incremental step forward for Jackson LaCombe, a certified Not-A-Moods-Dude from last year. LaCombe has overcome a very slow start to finally start collecting points, and is shooting a truckload, the main point of improvement vs. last year’s fantasy profile. He’s gone from 18% lower than the average shot rate (which includes non-PP1 defenders!) to 29% above the average defender shot rate this year, so while today’s price tag for today’s matchup doesn’t make it move, he’s absolutely in the picture for me moving forward.

I’m still not convinced LaCombe is better than Zellweger (and in fact stand pretty firm in my belief that it is not the case) but we can put some lipstick on this pig so long as Helleson isn’t dragging LaCombe to the mat for no discernible reason. Olen Zellweger doesn’t share the PP ice surface with Leo Carlsson!

Whether it is Mintyukov or Moore moving up to the LaCombe pairing, I don’t really care. If Helleson is a scratch in any form, even if it is Radko Gudas making a triumphant return to the top pair, I’ll be happy. I just think Moore deserves a shot to see if he can elevate LaCombe’s all-around game, and Mintyukov-Gudas has been excellent and fun, two words that perfectly encapsulate the Ducks season so far:

All it takes is Joel Quenneville having the courage to make the call he should have made as soon as he found out, and you know what right here is where this newsletter ends…

MOODS’ DUDES: Cutter Gauthier ($7200), Leo Carlsson ($6600), Pavel Mintyukov ($2600)

As always, thanks for reading!

Follow me on X @FakeMoods, and to subscribe to this newsletter. I write ~once a week during the NHL DFS season, previewing DFS slates or reviewing the major contests on DraftKings. You should also subscribe to DJ Mitchell’s YouTube channel, where we stream MSP live (or post right after recording) on Monday and Wednesday nights. We plan to be live on Saturday as well to go over the massive day of games around the league. I am posting some stuff on my own personal YT channel as well, with a few pre-season Underdog drafts up at the moment and our preseason betting deep dive. And join the Discord (DM me if you want in the MSP Discord), if you somehow haven’t already. The Morning Skate Podcast is on iTunes, Sticher, Spotify, and (probably) any other podcast app of your choosing!