Fading Fast (pt. 2)

This is a follow-up to the previous post, “Not for the Fade of Heart”, that I would suggest you read here to refresh on why we are analyzing fades, how we are quantifying a “fade”, and my analysis of #s 1-10 based on 9/7 ADP on Underdog Fantasy.

Let’s keep this short and continue the conversation from last time. If you want to see the rationale behind Nathan MacKinnon through Adam Fox, click the link above to view last week’s post. Here is a look at the rest of my fades that are (or that were!) in the top 100 of ADP on Underdog Fantasy, leading off with Linus Ullmark.

ADP Data per 9/7/23 Underdog Fantasy; All player stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Linus Ullmark G || 2.9% (2) || 54.8 ADP || 64.5 MyADP || +9.7 ADP Value

From a 10,000-foot view, Ullmark is a clear value, as he won the Vezina for best NHL Goaltender last season and was comfortably a top five fantasy goalie, carrying a 36% advancement rate and the 4th-best Best Puck regular season total point output, one point back of Andrei Vasilevskiy and two back of Jake Oettinger.

This season, he returns to a Boston team that did not make any changes in goal, forcing backup Jeremy Swayman to arbitration where Swayman received a $3.475M salary for the upcoming season. The field is sharp enough to realize that last season will not be happening again, pricing him at G8 off the board. I’m not sure that the field is adjusting enough though for the several factors working against Ullmark, talent not-withstanding:

1. Ullmark made only 49 appearances last season, 19th league-wide and a far cry from the top 7 goalies, with the lowest number of that group coming from Igor Shesterkin (58 appearances).

2. Boston is primed to take a major step back this season, with the record-setting 22-23 team losing their heart and soul in Patrice Bergeron as well as David Krejci to retirement. Other players like Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Bertuzzi, Craig Smith, and Connor Clifton who played meaningful roles have also moved on as Boston deals with the aftereffects of a relatively crowded cap sheet. After a 65-win, 135-point season, sportsbooks list the Bruins with an O/U of 101.5, conservatively docking about 12-15 wins from last year’s total.

3. Swayman is a 24-year-old top goalie prospect in the league who was no slouch last year either, posting a .920 sv% compared to Ullmark’s .938 mark. Ullmark saved the most goals vs. expected in the NHL, but Swayman finished 11th in this mark despite having less than 40 starts.

Even if you could project the exact same workload for Ullmark, it’s unlikely that the team is able to support a top ten fantasy G output in ~50 starts, considering there are at least a dozen goalies who could feasibly get 60. With Swayman’s continued emergence as a prospect, that split could become even narrower or flip entirely, especially if Ullmark starts the season slow. We don’t have to look too far back in history for Vezina-winning goalies being usurped on the depth chart, with Marc-Andre Fleury suffering the same fate just a couple years back.

I will be safely under the field, but don’t mind taking a share well after ADP, particularly on teams where I get locked out of picking a goalie before I am on the board.

Steven Stamkos C || 0.0% (0) || 57.9 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

Having eyeballed my full list, this is the fade that I am easily the most unnerved by. At this timestamp on a recent Underdog Live Stream, I discuss Stamkos and Hedman in reference to their ADP massively falling year-over-year on a still-very-good Lightning team. There are very few players that boast Stamkos’ ability to put hockey pucks in the net, and after a few years of injuries and long postseasons leading to short offseasons, Stamkos stayed healthy all year and put up 34G 50A, helping drafters to a 27% advancement rate. I believe he’s fallen two rounds worth of ADP simply because the field has sharpened up on the positional allocation guidelines that the format forces us to follow, prioritizing the W position at all points in the draft.

Still, for the player with the 3rd highest active shooting % in the NHL (and who has done this over 15 astonishingly good seasons) with Nikita Kucherov feeding him one-time passes on the still-elite Tampa PP as the #1 option, I would love to be over the field if I can figure out how to build sensible teams with Stamkos on them. I noticed I have 4 shares of Point to 0 Stamkos, which results in being underweight on both TB C options despite an affinity for Kucherov. I lightly prefer Stamkos to Point, which makes that an odd discovery, but will attempt to get more shares of Tampa as my drafts continue, as highlighted in the video linked above.

J.T. Miller C || 0.0% (0) || 59.3 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

There are simply too many centers to get exposure to all while keeping balanced roster builds, and VAN’s JT Miller feels like a player who while I like in the format (he offers an elite combo of point production and hits that you simply cannot often get at forward positions) doesn’t have the elite upside that I feel can bury me, particularly in the playoff sprints. I prefer my VAN exposure to come through the much cheaper secondary W options on the board, such as Boeser, Beauvillier, and even Kuzmenko to an extent.

Miro Heiskanen D || 0.0% (0) || 59.5 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you may have seen a recent attempt to sully the great name of Evan Bouchard via our friend over at Puckluck.com, Jay. That tweet and thread are worth a read if you haven’t seen it, though admittedly with the quote tweets and replies it may be easier to access via my feed, since I don’t use Twitter much? I’m not sure, anyway check it out for a lot of discussion/data-backed takes. The jist of it is that there’s a case to be made that I am severely light on Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen, the player Jay feels is the best alternative to Evan Bouchard on the Oilers.

While the Miro vs. Bouchard wars are being waged, I found it a bit shocking that I have 0 shares of Miro. After all, Miro’s role and talent is simply unquestioned in Dallas, behind a dynamic top-six forward group.

I do find Rasmus Dahlin to be an interesting test case for what Miro could be, however. The two profile rather similarly, though Dahlin does offer slightly more in terms of hits/blocks, to the tune of ~3 extra hits+blocks per 60 minutes (~1.3 per game, based on TOI).

Where Dahlin pulled away from Miro this season was by simply leveling up the chances he was creating for himself, often holding onto the puck for the half-step longer along the offensive blue-line, to create space for himself to convert a scoring opportunity.

Dahlin YoY progression, all situations, per NST:

Same view, for Miro:

Look at the individual xG rates, where Dahlin nearly doubled his career ixG/60 rate in 22-23. You can see it in the tape, which doubles as an incredible way to get hyped up for the return of the NHL in a few short weeks, I would argue. What a player Dahlin is.

In any case, the interesting news on Miro is that he himself has stated a desire to “score more goals”, with an improved shot per sources close to the team. Jokes aside on that last bit, Miro has always been an elite talent with moderate fantasy relevance due to his lack of peripherals and shot volume. If Miro can tick his shot rate up, mixing in better opportunities as well as increased conversion rates, the way that Dahlin did this past season, there’s a chance he can catch Dahlin who goes three rounds ahead of him in some drafts.

Having the DAL PP1 exposure to fall back on is not a bad role to have, so Miro is a guy I intend to target in the back half of my draft season to try and approach the field’s exposure, though I still greatly prefer Evan Bouchard when given the choice. Sorry, Jay.

Roope Hintz || 0.0% (0) || 60.6 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

If I’m light on Robertson and Miro, it goes to follow that I have limited Hintz exposure as well. Roope is the forward equivalent of Miro, where he’ll offer next to nothing outside of point accumulation, and even has a highly volatile role on the ice as the “field-stretcher” of DAL1, with Robertson and Pavelski doing so much good work along the boards and down low that Hintz can afford to take chances and search for breakaways. Their skillsets mesh perfectly together, but poetry on ice doesn’t pay the fantasy bills.

Jesper Bratt W || 0.0% (0) || 61.6 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

I’m out of ways to write about players who don’t shoot enough for my liking, but that’s the fault of Bratt, too. Layer on to that the fact that unlike, say, Artemi Panarin, the NJ PP1 doesn’t run through him (and as covered last week, could possibly even run without him), I don’t see the appeal of Bratt ahead of names like Marchessault and Konecny, so his current ADP won’t cut it.

As NJ1 and NJ2 get sorted out in training camp, it is worth keeping an eye on Lindy Ruff’s combinations, as solidified pairings (with third wheels cycling, presumably) could lead to a slight boost in terms of correlating with early Jack Hughes stacks or back-stacks of Nico Hischier if Bratt seems to stick with one C in particular. At this point, however, I’m happy to 100% fade.

Aleksander Barkov || 0.0% (0) || 65.6 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

In a vacuum, I prefer Barkov to Hintz, but the main issue with Florida is that stacks are just a complete nightmare. They have one NHL forward listed at W on Florida, with all of Barkov, Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Lundell, and Bennett checking in as C options on Underdog. Last season showed a strong preference to balance the lines, using Bennett or Lundell with Tkachuk at 5v5 most often, so the Tkachuk stack isn’t as strong as we would like it to be (and was a colossal failure last season, going at the 1-2 turn).

Unstacked Barkov sounds like the stuff of nightmares, so the appeal is minimal despite an ADP discount of ~50 spots. If looking for the bull case here, however, Barkov often has the puck on his stick and shoots a fair bit more than his early-career rates ingrained in us fantasy degens would lead us to believe. After rates between 8-12 in the iCorsi/60 department (weak, with 18+ being “great” in my book) early on, the past three seasons have seen Barkov check in with final rates in the 14-15 range, which is perfectly passable and “good” for a player of his skill level and point output. If Florida continues their strong play from the postseason into 23-24, Barkov could be a major fantasy benefactor.

Filip Gustavsson G || 2.9% (2) || 65.9 ADP || 60.5 MyADP || -5.4 ADP Value

Gustavsson sits in an awkward ADP range, well after I usually have one stud goalie, but just before another group that I am happy to pick from. While the Wild should be a good team, the two flaws with Gustavsson are:

1. Marc-Andre Fleury stands to serve as a 1B, and barring a significant drop-off should project to see at least 30-35 starts, capping Gustavsson’s upside significantly.

2. While trusting Ottawa’s decision-making in goal is an unwise decision, it’s worth considering that Gustavsson was quite literally a 24-year-old throw-in to a one-for-one deal just over a year ago. If it seems impossible that a one-for-one trade can include a throw-in, look at the analysis immediately following the trade. There’s countless examples like this out there, but Gustavsson had some pedigree as a 2016 2nd rounder but quickly was moved to Ottawa, where he was relatively unsuccessful across the AHL and NHL levels and traded for one year of Cam Talbot.

Not to say we should expect Gustavsson to turn into a pumpkin this year, as Minnesota is historically one of the best teams in terms of creating fantastic work environments for goalies (lots of shot quantity against, limited quality against) and young goalies can break out at any age, a bit different from the forward position where this is far rarer. But it’s still a bit aggressive to bet on Gustavsson as the 1A at pick 65, as I feel there are several true #1s still waiting to be selected when Gustavsson goes off the board.

However, the Wild showed a willingness to use Gustavsson late in the season into the playoffs more than the 50-to-32 projected split would entail, and it is very possible that a similar split is seen this year, with the early months looking more 50/50 and the work shifting to Gus’s plate just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Moritz Seider || 2.9% (2) || 74.1 ADP || 75.0 MyADP || +0.9 ADP Value

I saw an eye-opening visual courtesy of @NFL_Billy_Jones, who is a regular in our MSP weekly live-streams and is worth a follow on his own, that frames the entire case for and against Mo Seider incredibly well. You should read the full piece from him and Nick Knowles here, if only for the other graphics and visuals presented (as the content is possibly a bit too basic for someone who took the time to subscribe to this newsletter).

Ignoring the bottom left of the chart (we know the deal with Bouchard, and most of it has nothing to do with last year’s regular season), and focusing on the bottom right, we see a player who is priced 50 spots ahead of Jacob Trouba, the prototypical peripheral stat-stuffer with a similar profile based on last year’s statistics.

The main difference you could draw between the two defenders is projecting Seider to do, well, anything, offensively with the opportunities he’s given in Detroit. He was a very early NHL draft pick to much fanfare and simply has not shown the sort of offensive upside warranting such a lofty pick, despite ample opportunity and ice time. To wit, last year there were only 13 defensemen with >250 minutes on the PP, and Seider was 13th with a bullet in PP Pts/60, 13th in IPP (% of on-ice team goals in which he got a point), and 12th in shots/60 with the man advantage.

To go along with pedestrian 5v5 offensive numbers, he simply has to improve in this area, either due to a DET PP improvement (thus boosting his points) or improving his involvement in the offense and soaking up more of the available fantasy points for himself.

If you are sold on the player, the graphic shows the massive opportunity awaiting Seider, who offers blocks and hits in spades, and the chance to reach rarified fantasy air by simply improving his offensive output on a seemingly upstart Detroit squad that added Offense-In-A-Can in the form of Alex DeBrincat this offseason. Even if he’s only Alex Pietrangelo offensively (all due respect to Pietrangelo!), he can pay off his tag rather easily.

It is safe to say that I am not sold, and I worry greatly that he’s simply A Guy with the puck, so I am more likely to invest in the group of D just after him, headlined by John Carlson, that offer less floor but more offensive certainty and, in my opinion, weekly upside and talent.

After all, if I’m feeling antsy I can just get store-brand Seider in Jacob Trouba in the 120s. Thanks again to @NFL_Billy_Jones and Nick, give their work a read if you can find the time here, linked again for your convenience.

Drake Batherson W || 1.4% (1) || 80.3 ADP || 88.0 MyADP || +7.7 ADP Value

It’s rare to find Ws that I am lower than the field on, for reasons covered in my first piece. Batherson was a guy I was light on last year for the same reasons as I am this year, but substitute Vladimir Tarasenko in for Alex DeBrincat on Ottawa. With Josh Norris (hopefully) returning, Stutzle breaking into a tier beyond Star last season, and Brady Tkachuk a mainstay with 1 D on the point, the PP1 is a massive question heading into the season with very little certainty on how the two spots are assigned between Norris, Batherson, Tarasenko, and Giroux. Batherson has been rumored to be involved in the Hockey Canada sexual assault scandal, as well, which bodes very poorly for the person and the player. In a year where Ottawa is under extreme pressure to turn the ship around, a suspension would not help matters in the slightest.

With a lot of question marks, it’s worth noting that Batherson was in a remarkably similar position last summer (including the Hockey Canada suspension chatter…) and returned a perfectly fine season at an ADP in the 90s, leading to a 27% advancement rate and as-expected production relative to draft slot. At age 25, there’s certainly room to grow beyond that if given the opportunity.

John Tavares C || 1.4% (1) || 82.5 ADP || 72.0 MyADP || -10.5 ADP Value

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C || 2.9% (2) || 85.9 ADP || 61.0 MyADP || -24.9 ADP Value

Drafted #1 Overall by a fledgling franchise over a decade ago, this player has persisted through some dark times with the team that drafted him, finally getting a chance to shine on a strong team in recent years despite a lack of playoff success when spring rolls around. Playing as a second fiddle to a transcendent superstar, his 2023 outlook could be similar to 2022, but aging curves come for everyone, and the value is diminished by being a C on Underdog, where there are so many elite fantasy contributors that some go undrafted in all drafts. Drafting this player in the 80s feels unnecessary; the field agrees with ADP having fallen dramatically from the start of draft season to now.

…Pretty good, right?

The main case for John Tavares is that he’s been a point-per-game player with good rates and shot volume for his entire career and should be playing alongside either William Nylander or Mitch Marner on a stacked Leafs top six.

The range of outcomes for RNH is far wider, as his 100-point season last year will be tough to replicate given the lack of shot volume and perceived increased involvement of Evan Bouchard on the PP1 coming at his expense. But, last year we also saw RNH spend some time on McDavid’s wing at 5v5, something the Oilers had not displayed to that point.

Tavares is almost certainly going to play on the 2nd line, either at center or on Max Domi’s wing, and we’ve never seen 5v5 correlation with Matthews.

I’ll almost certainly be lower than market on both. I would consider Tavares at ADP more than I would RNH (despite my limited decisions in this case showing otherwise).

Vladimir Tarasenko W || 1.4% (1) || 87.6 ADP || 99.0 MyADP || +11.4 ADP Value

Claude Giroux W || 0.0% (0) || 90.0 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

A logical follow-up to the Ottawa and Drake Batherson discussion above, then, is “who if not Drake?” I guess my answer is Josh Norris. Tarasenko and Giroux each show notable declines from their peaks, which is to say they aren’t the players they once were. If we knew for sure that one of these players was locked alongside Tkachuk and Stutzle on L1 and PP1, I would be highly interested on betting on the talent and opportunity turning back the clock for one year.

Because of the uncertainty, I don’t think there’s much defending these two players going ahead of Val Nichushkin or Pavel Buchnevich beyond name brand among casuals, so I am reaching beyond these two for those guys (or a different position, where I’m very high on Kuemper around this ADP as well) when I get the opportunity.

Brandon Montour D || 0.0% (0) || 91 ADP || NONE MyADP || NONE ADP Value

One of the least discussed aspects of last season is how I’m not rich and retired on a private island after the year Brandon Montour had for the Panthers. Consider that my goddamn profile picture on DK has been a picture I took of Brandon Montour in 2017, just minutes before he did this, for the entirely of 2018-2023.

I legitimately went out of my way to go to an October Ducks-Flyers game here in Philly, that’s how big of a Brandon Montour fan I was and still am. The next year, I drove from L.A. to Anaheim to see a Tuesday night Ducks game in December, bought a Montour jersey. Within three months of that, he was traded to the Buffalo Sabres, which was one of the greatest days of my Sabres fandom, of which there are definitely… well, like, four.

After all of this, to see him be drafted ONCE in all of Best Puck Classic II last year, put up 9.0 UDPts/GP and match the likes of John Carlson and Dougie Hamilton, ultimately helping to lead the Panthers through the gauntlet of the Eastern Conference and to the Cup Final, is a legitimate dream come true. I was the first person to see this, back to the days of Theodore and Montour flying up and down the ice for the cup-contending Ducks (how times have changed..). Good times…

Except for one thing, I forgot the part where I doubled down on him and played him every night on DK and drafted him to 25% exposure in Best Puck. So here I am, decidedly not rich and unable to victory lap one of the more out-of-nowhere stories in a season chock-full of them along the blueline.

At current ADP, Montour faces a long road to playing again, with his current timeline in recovering from a torn labrum putting him back in the lineup sometime in November or later. With January also being mentioned, I am extremely hesitant to punt off the early weeks of the NHL season with Montour, but given the word that it’s Early November as opposed to something more extensive, you can bet I’ll be in. It’s worth considering that multiple times it has been stated that Montour is “closer” than Ekblad, which either means very bad things for the Panthers (in that Ekblad is out past January…) or that November is far more likely for Montour. I shade the latter, but there’s no sense in selecting him with viable PP1 options on the table until we have more clarity.

Nearly another 4k words on fantasy hockey. I love it, and hopefully you do as well. Please subscribe to this newsletter to ensure to get everything I share sent directly to your inbox!

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