Early Season Shot Rates

As of the morning of November 19th, all of the teams in the NHL have played at least 15 games, with Seattle leading the way at 19 games played. This newsletter is a review of the holy grail of Fantasy Hockey (at least the way I play it.. on DraftKings, FanDuel, Underdog, and even my dynasty leagues) - iCorsi/60, or iCF/60.

iCF/60 stands for individual Corsi For per 60 minutes of ice time. In other words, it measures how many shot attempts an individual player is directing toward the net, scaled by how many minutes that player is playing.

The primary reason I use this metric is that players exert an exorbitant amount of control over their rates. If we were playing a fantasy game of NHL players flipping coins, it really wouldn’t matter if Auston Matthews had a 75% Heads %, since we know he would have no control over the next flip of the coin. Instead, on a year-over-year basis, the leaders in iCF/60 tend to remain the leaders. Likewise, casting the largest possible net (including blocked shots and missed shots) gives us more sample to rely upon for projecting usage forward when looking at fractions of a season.

The other reason I put so much emphasis on shot attempts is that there’s only upside beyond the building blocks of shot attempts. Shot attempts create fantasy points in a variety of ways, the most obvious being shots and goals themselves. However, in the modern NHL most goals come off rebounds, deflections, and scrums around the goal. On those goals, the original shooter is almost always credited an assist if he doesn’t score it himself; be it a primary or secondary assist they all count the same for fantasy!

I’ve reviewed every player in the league to this point in the year (with at least 125 5v5 minutes played…) and picked out a number of notable names toward the top of the list, and a few toward the bottom. They are generally ordered from highest shot rate to lowest shot rate, but bear with me as we go rapid fire around the league, highlighting some early-season trends to take advantage of going forward! I suggest opening this image in a separate window for reference throughout the piece.

Data from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Nik Ehlers (WPG) - Starting things out with a real banger, team #NeverNik has never been stronger than it is now. At age 27, Ehlers has yet to carve out a top-six role in Winnipeg and has fallen even further down the depth chart than in past years. Averaging 15 minutes a night, Ehlers is a full 1:30 behind his career average TOI, and Ehlers even had a cup of coffee on the PP1 in the aftermath of Gabriel Vilardi’s injury before getting replaced by Cole Perfetti.

That said, Ehlers is rocking an extremely good 24.2 iCorsi/60 at 5v5 and a less-impressive 27 iCF/60 on the PP this season. All in all, Ehlers is just about the same player he always has been in 2023-24, and it seems like he truly never will make it for the fantasy nerds. I’m still avoiding Ehlers in nearly every situation, but a league-leading iCF/60 at 5v5 at least offers some hope for those who continue to hang on.

Owen Tippett (PHI) - Tippett has carried his tremendous play from last season into the 23-24 season and currently leads the league in iCF/60 at 5v5 with an unbelievable 25.8. For reference, prime Ovechkin bounced between 22-27 in various seasons, topping out at 30 in 2008-09. Tippett’s main issue this season has been usage, where he has had 2 minutes of 5v5 TOI per night cut from his plate, and a PP role that places him in the middle of the ice. Even last year’s PP shot rate wasn’t elite (Ovechkin sits at ~40 iCF/60 on the PP), but we’re splitting hairs for a player who generally comes in cheap in any format, without a lot of cost attached. Tippett remains a Buy candidate while we wait for Torts to rely upon Tippett in the way he did last year for a surprisingly competent Flyers squad.

Brent Burns (CAR) - Brent Burns has been chucking pucks this season. If he were to keep up this 22.9 iCF/60 at 5v5 all year long, he’d establish a new career-high, which is an unbelievable sentence considering in 2016-17 (and many other years), he lapped the field in shot attempts on his way to the Norris trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman.

Of course, this Brent Burns isn’t the same Brent Burns, with a few things contributing to a relatively lackluster fantasy season to this point:

• Burns has lost his PP1 job to Tony DeAngelo (and strangely, even Dmitry Orlov for a game without TDA), and his PP shot rate has cratered, nearly 10 shots per 60 lower than the past three seasons (and a far cry from his Norris-year rates as well). Without the PP usage, Burns’ counting stats have suffered.

• Only 33% of Burns’ shots are hitting the net. Most defensemen average around 50% “efficiency” in this area, and even considering Burns carries a lower baseline than others (between 42-45%), this is almost certainly poor luck.

• Burns is collecting a point on an impossibly-low 29% of Carolina’s 5v5 goals while he is on the ice (called “IPP” or Individual Points Percentage). His partner, Jaccob Slavin, checks in with a 53% IPP at this point in the season. Both players typically check in around the 40% mark, and Burns led Slavin 45% to 35% last year when they were paired together.

• He’s 38 freaking years old.

The middle points especially should regress, but it’s important to remember the last point. We’ve been treated to some unbelievable performances so far from grizzled veterans like Sid, Geno, and Kopitar this year that make it seem like age is nothing but a number, but Burns will fall off eventually. His on-ice play and impact is still stellar (likely thanks to Slavin’s presence), but the fantasy monster of years past is likely no more. I’ve noticed Burns’ DFS price slipping in recent weeks, however, and the 5v5 regression alone should keep Burns in the mix as long as the sites are aggressively reducing his price to reflect the lack of point-production. If he finds the right game to get multiple points, you could be looking at huge nights to come with the shot volume he’s creating.

I reserve the right to delete this paragraph when Carolina ships TDA to the ECHL and gives Burns back PP1 duties, in which case we go to the moon.

Cole Caufield (MTL) - Caufield’s revolving door of linemates has not impacted his shot output, and Caufield has in fact put more of the offensive workload on his plate in 2023-24, averaging a 5v5 iCF/60 that is 32% better than his 2021-23 rate and ranks him among the top of the league while maintaining his elite PP shot propensity. For a true top-line player of his pedigree - his 13:18 of 5v5 ice time slots him 15 seconds behind David Pastrnak’s 5v5 usage, and his 65% of PP time allotted (per DobberHockey) slots him between Kyle Connor and Tim Stutzle - it appears Cole Caufield has reached his final form. Now, it’s just a matter of giving Caufield some talented players to play with, and the goals will come in bunches. Until then, still expect some positive regression this year, as Caufield is shooting 2.3% at 5v5 so far this season.

Timo Meier (NJ) - Timo is in a startlingly similar boat to Owen Tippett, in that his 5v5 shot rate is just about equal to his PP shot rate. Unlike Tippett, however, that PP shot rate was far higher in past years, something I pointed out as a very real concern as part of my many preseason concerns about Timo’s draft position. To this point, Timo has battled through injuries of his own and to the NJ top two centermen, so the jury remains out on his 23-24 season, although Toffoli’s ferocious start to the season, along with Bratt’s continued excellence, makes Timo’s road to paying off a second-round ADP in fantasy nearly impossible to traverse. In the meantime, however, his floor remains high on a game-to-game basis, as he’s putting lots of pucks on net, has 11 points in 14 games, and was on a 3-game goalscoring streak prior to his injury.

Yeah, you didn’t think you were getting 300+ words for each of the three dozen players on this list, did you? Let’s keep this moving with some quick hits.

Filip Forsberg (NSH) - Forsberg remains the alpha on NSH’s PP1, with more on PP-mate Josi below. Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly have shown instant chemistry, and Fil is on pace to smash the 84 points he put up in 2021-22 (currently on a 97-point pace) as a result.

Adrian Kempe (LA) - Kempe has blown up at 5v5 and on the PP1 this year, racking up shots and points for the league’s leading 5v5 scoring team. Kempe has been the direct beneficiary of Quinton Byfield’s breakout campaign, which didn’t make this list but includes his own iCF/60 emergence from a baseline of 10 iCF/60 up to 16 (!!). LA1 is a problem if Kopitar can stave off Father Time for another year.

Brock Nelson (NYI) - Brock Nelson has only increased his 5v5 shot rate by +67% and his PP shot rate by +43% and now sits top 20 in shots in the NHL. Other than that, a super normal season for the guy who wasn’t always drafted in 16-round, 12-team Best Puck lobbies. Brocktober may just be year-round at this point.

Nikita Kucherov (TB) - Kucherov has been unbelievable for the Tampa team who desperately needs to outscore their defensive and goaltending issues, leading the league in points among players whose 5v5 on-ice Sh% isn’t laughably extreme. As a matter of fact, Kucherov is at 9.2%, which would be his lowest on-ice Sh% since 2016! He’s doing a lot of shooting at 5v5 to offset these percentages, and his PP role remains unchallenged as one of the best dual-threat options in the NHL.

Carter Verhaeghe (FLA) - I’ve quickly come around from a pre-season nahwave of Verhaeghe, as he’s flashed the floor/ceiling combination of shots/point production in expanded minutes. As of this writing, Verhaeghe has earned a spot on the Florida top PP unit and top line, and one of these days Samson is going to let somebody else score a goal for a change. Verhaeghe’s impressive start to the season has been somewhat obfuscated by a low IPP, which is ~20 points lower than his past three seasons and has led to a halved 5v5 points/60 this season despite the +27% boost in 5v5 shot volume.

Jeff Skinner (BUF) - Somebody has to score for the Sabres, and fortunately Skinner has stepped up to the plate in Tage’s absence (and slow start prior to that…) with 8 goals to lead the team with his tally as I write this on Sunday night. Though Skinner hasn’t shown this sort of overall shot rate in Buffalo, the rates he’s currently showing compare similarly to the end of his Carolina days, only with more minutes now. Skinner is playing like a man who desperately wants to make the playoffs for the first time in his NHL career, as he is now the player with the most career appearances without playing in a single playoff game.

Alex DeBrincat (DET) - Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin started off the year extremely well for Detroit but have cooled off in recent weeks as DeBrincat has only registered 5 points in his last 11 games played. So far, his PP shot volume has matched expectations, while his 5v5 rates have ticked upward where not even as Patrick Kane’s shotgun-rider did DeBrincat establish the shot volume he has through his start in Detroit. For a player I was smashing unders on in season-long props, those have pretty quickly been graded as a loss (relying on an injury to bail me out) based on his elite talent and the instant chemistry he and Larkin have displayed alongside that 5v5 shot volume leading to him having 8 5v5 goals (second in the league behind Kyle Connor).

Auston Matthews and William Nylander (TOR) - William Nylander is approaching David Pastrnak in the conversation for the NHL’s best winger. He’s been that good this season. Auston Matthews remains incredible, tied for the league lead in goals with 14 in his first 17 games (with Kyle Connor), but it’s Nylander who is tied with Kucherov in point production (27 points in 17 games) despite a paltry 8% on-ice Sh% at 5v5. Nylander’s career doesn’t point to Kucherov-esque 13% on-ice Sh% outcomes being realistic, but the way he’s playing, 10% isn’t out of the question. Nylander is doing everything himself, boosting both his 5v5 and PP shot rates vs. 2021-2023 by +14% and +66%, respectively, and could be even better, as he has only a 48% goals share this season despite 58% of the xGs and 56% of the shot attempts at evens.

Artemi Panarin (NYR) - Panarin has revolutionized his game in 2023-24 and is now a bonafide fantasy monster as opposed to the Kingmaker he has been for years. I’m a bit skeptical that his +66% boost in 5v5 shot rate and +59% at PP are here to stay, but with his amazing ability to orchestrate the NYR PP1 from his strong-side, he has a very high point/assist floor to fall back on if he regresses a touch. Panarin is one of the most exciting stories of the fantasy season so far, as he combines a top ten true talent level in the league on an electric Top PP unit with a newfound shot floor that increases his ceiling as well.

Matthew Tkachuk (FLA) - Matthew Tkachuk has boosted both his 5v5 shot rate and has a massive share of the FLA PP shot volume, yet only has scored 3 goals thanks to shooting 4.2% on the year. Unlike his brother, Matthew is a career 10-12% shooter, so there’s no real reason to expect there’s anything in Tkachuk’s game that leads to a low sh%. Like Verhaeghe, it’s just a matter of Samson deciding it is someone else’s turn to score a goal, then they should come in bunches.

Mathew Barzal (NYI) - Barzal gives a lot back the other way and is the main reason NYI games have been… fun? this season. The Islanders currently sit 2nd in 5v5 “Corsi Pace” (total shot attempts per 60, regardless of which team it is for) and 4th in xG pace to this point. For now, however, it’s worth marveling that one of the most out-of-the-box playmakers in the NHL has reinvented himself as more of a shoot-first player in all situations. It’s not quite the Panarin leap forward, but it’s a minor league version glow-up for the minor league Rangers. (Editor: too mean?) No, we leave it in.

Sidney Crosby (PIT) - Sidney Crosby’s stats are a symptom of PIT1’s territorial dominance this season. It may look like Sid has found a new level in his game, but in reality Sid’s 5v5 shot rate is up +20%, Guentzel is up +17%, and Bryan Rust is up +30%. There’s just a much larger pie for these guys to eat from. On the PP PIT is interesting, as Sid and Geno combine for 60% of the team’s PP shot attempts when they are on the ice together (per HockeyViz), while this figure was only 40% last season. I suspect this is an Erik Karlsson-related happening (like how in SJ Timo dominated shot share, EK65 knows who to get the puck to for results), and Reilly Smith has been underwhelming on the PP1 as well in his time there. Rust recently joined the top unit after starting with Letang and Rakell in the spot previously as well, so there’s some activity going on that could change the PP for better or worse.

Jason Robertson (DAL) - On the surface, Robertson’s numbers don’t look all that different from the past. When you focus on just last year into this year, however, JRob has taken a dramatic step back in his personal involvement in, well, everything. His PP shot rate is down from 37 per hour to 31, his 5v5 rate is down from 18 to 16, and his 5v5 Sh%, which has been 13% in each of the first three full seasons, sits at just 7% through 16 games. There’s no real reason to fear Robertson’s long-term outlook, but it is worth considering that last season may be the ceiling for Robertson. Defensively, DAL1 remains stellar, so it’s largely the fantasy profile that is suspect relative to expectations.

Aleksander Barkov (FLA) - Before suffering what looked to be a gruesome knee injury (though he’s currently listed as day-to-day), Barkov had been enjoying a nice season for himself. While the rates don’t jump off the page, double digit percentage increases in both 5v5 and PP shot rates will pay off in a big way for Barkov, who discounting his injury-shortened game sits firmly in the top ten in average TOI per night among forwards. If anything, it’s a bit surprising he doesn’t have more points/involvement in the offense, as he’s “only” slightly above a point-per-game despite Reinhart’s explosion, who is glued to his hip in all situations.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) - EDM can’t buy a goal, but it’s not Draisaitl’s fault. He’s trying his best out there. Draisaitl looks like Barkov at 5v5 and Ovechkin on the PP, yet is stuck on 6 goals thanks to an 11.5% Sh%. “Wait, that seems quite high” you may be saying to your computer screen right now, but in reality, it’s not.

The dude defies logic. He should be fine.

Alex Ovechkin (WSH) - Ovi is chug-chug-chugging along, where age and the team around him has clearly taken a toll on his efficiency. But he gets all the minutes, maintains involvement at 5v5 (it’s down -16%.. but it started from a very high place!) and is even trending slightly better than his past-self’s PP rates. It helps, too, that we can project him to score approximately 128% of the Capitals’ empty-netters this season. He’s in the downswing of his career, but if you’re looking for a reason he won’t catch Wayne Gretzky for the all-time Goals record, you’re not going to find it here.

The Defense Corner!  I love these guys.

Shea Theodore (VGK) - Shea Theodore sits top five in the NHL in both shots and points among defenders. Boy, I wonder who could have seen this coming? Shea continues to do what he does, and Vegas despite a bit of a slump of late still sits at the top of the dumpster fire that is the Western Conference. The blueline is fully healthy now, so the minutes probably tick downward a smidge with Hague-Whitecloud finding their game again post-injuries (Theo is averaging 23 minutes a night to this point), but he’s wrestled full control of the PP1 away from Pietrangelo and that isn’t going away any time soon. Theodore and McNabb have been nails at 5v5 as a pairing, as well, so there’s very little reason to suspect a full-on reversal of fortunes for Theodore, but the few weeks of PK-PP-top pair Theodore adding occasional blocks bonuses to the mix were awfully fun.

Roman Josi (NSH) - Josi is a tick worse in just about every area than he was last season. I certainly didn’t have “tied with OEL and Erik Gustafsson in points 20% of the way through the season” on my 2023-24 checklist for him, but there’s nothing overly concerning here, either. It’s tough to prescribe any sort of action based on this data, though, and Josi probably has no issue deferring to the red-hot Filip Forsberg. He’ll probably need to step up and put the team on his back to drag this team within sniffing distance of the playoffs, however.

Also, I found this quite comical. Juuse Saros takes the day off when either of Forsberg or Josi are on the ice and is amazing with the plugs on the ice. Not a great way to keep the pressure off your star offensive producers…

Cale Makar (COL) - Makar is making quick work of this year’s Norris trophy voting (with due apologies to Quinn Hughes for this brutal takedown).

Makar has separated himself from the pack already and has much less distance to fall back to earth than Quinn Hughes, the only player he trails in points (28 to 24, with Makar holding two games in hand).

Makar has earned 59% of the xGs and 62% of the goals this year at 5v5 (Quinn is at 47% (!) and 66% (!!!)), and with 6.2 primary points per 60 on the PP is basically 2022-23 Nikita Kucherov (6.0).

There aren’t enough superlatives for Cale Makar. He might even be the best player in the NHL.

Evan Bouchard (EDM) - Nothing to see here, just a point-per-game defenseman on the legitimately broken Oilers. If they were anywhere close to what they were expected to be, he might be on pace to crack 100 points. The rates are.. fine, but you were never taking Evan Bouchard and expecting this season to unfold the way it has, so what he’s put up to date is remarkable.

Noah Dobson (NYI) - My “oh shit” moment of the season was when I opened up my phone at the Canadiens game on October 27th and saw that the field had played a $6k Noah Dobson at 40% ownership. I played a $5.2k Quinn Hughes at 5% ownership. He outscored Dobson 7.1 (sad…) to 1.3. Did I make money that night? No. Did doing this put a curse on me that to this day I am still trying to break? Well.. I got this cool hat while I was in Montreal!

On Dobson, the steam was entirely due to his PP1 role and the absence of Scott Mayfield, which led to him being the only other right-shot Dman to play defensive minutes. Until Mayfield or Pulock goes down again, Dobson will remain a Theodore-esque offensive weapon on a worse team, but it’s worth monitoring as his price starts to creep back down in DFS.

Justin Schultz (SEA) - a 13 iCF/60 at 5v5 and 19 iCF/60 on the PP might not seem like much, but it’s something. Theoretically, Schultz has upside when he’s constantly priced at 3k playing on the McCann PP unit. I’ll let you know when he puts this into practice with “Fantasy Points”, however.

“UH OH” Zone! I’m worried about these guys.

Kevin Fiala (LA), Sean Couturier (PHI), Pierre-Luc Dubois (LA), Connor McDavid (EDM), Victor Hedman (TB), and Jamie Benn (DAL) all have 5v5 shot rates that are -10% worse or lower than their historical rates. All but McDavid and Fiala couple this with massive drops in PP shot rates as well, and Fiala’s is still down a smidge.

I’d cut bait now on Couts, PLD, Hedman, and Benn while you still can. Hedman has been wildly productive with the TB PP1 job, but Sergachev has come on strong lately and Hedman’s recent past shows a 55/45 split of PP1 work at best between him and Mikhail, not the 90/10 it sits at through 18 games.

There’s the possibility Alex Laferriere was more akin to an Evander Kane offensively, stealing opportunities to shoot from his linemates in Fiala and PLD to start the year, but PLD has lost his PP1 job and had a lower starting point to begin with while Fiala moves up to the Danault/Moore line, insulating his minutes and keeps the PP1 work.

I traded Connor Bedard in a dynasty league straight up for Connor McDavid in September. I didn’t want to, but it was a Hawks fan and I felt like I’d be dumb for not acquiring the sure thing for the Mystery Box. I will not be taking further questions.

Tom Wilson (WSH) - I added Wilson on to the end, as he played PP1/L1 this weekend for the Capitals with Ovi and Strome. I was incredibly dubious of Wilson’s fantasy viability this year, and so far the points haven’t been there. If he keeps shooting like this, however, he’s a defensively relied-upon player with underrated puck skills playing with Alex Ovechkin. He’ll get his, and I’m happy to be wrong on a player whose career was possibly at risk due to injury.

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