Moods Writeup - 2/19/24 Presidents' Day NHL Slate

DraftKings threw us a curveball by making Monday’s slate of games (10 in total) an all-day Main slate, as opposed to something slightly more standard by breaking the slate into Early and Late/Main.

This means that the juiced prize pools, including a $111 entry - $50k top prize and $15 entry - $25k top prize, will feature games running from 12:30 EST through 7:00 EST, coming off of a weekend with a ton of Saturday games, relatively few Sunday practices (and even fewer Sunday updates, as apparently beat writers take days off?), and very few AM skates to lean on as we prepare for Monday’s action.

Instead of a podcast focusing on top plays and bouncing around topics, I think a more usable piece of content is to write out the slate as it currently stands, with what we know and what I am expecting to see/watch for. That will give everyone the ability (not just dutiful notetakers while listening to the pod!) to track the slate as things develop.

Today’s Primary Point: Monday NHL Slate Overview

We have ten games, which I’ll go through with news, what we have confirmed, and what we are looking out for, wrapping it up with some strategy.

We have one game at 12:30, the next two at 1, and another at 2. What this means is that we’ll know ANA news (and Buffalo news, though I don’t anticipate any changes) pre-lock. We may have inklings of the following three games (via coach pressers) and we’ll likely see morning skates from the two 7PM games. The rest will be true wild cards, thus making it very important to have a plan in order to best capitalize on potential news.

If you are not already, please make sure you join the Discord for the Morning Skate Podcast, it’s free and it’s where we’ll be going over news as it breaks and react to the slate, with a special betting channel as well where various members share their thoughts.

Anaheim (+160) @ Buffalo (-192): 6.5 Game Total - 12:30 PM EST

Since we’ll know lines here pre-game, I am not that concerned with digging into this game. Personally, despite the 6.5 total (and ANA giving up 9 goals last game..), there’s not a ton of reason to like this game. Neither team is generating much offensively, and the team total and news certainty will bring ample ownership to the Sabres.

For the Ducks, Alex Killorn returned to action on Saturday and quickly moved from the third line up to L1 with Carlsson and Strome amidst the chaos in Toronto, pushing Henrique down to the third line. I don’t expect other changes here, though we can’t rule anything out. I would expect the “veterans” PP1 unit to remain intact, and lean that way if you want to target the Sabres average defense (and red-hot UPL in net).

In Buffalo, L1 is Tage, Tuch, and Skinner, all of whom are unbelievably cheap for a combined $16.5k. They will team up with Dahlin and Cozens on the PP1, if we can trust the Minnesota game. If you need more value, Krebs remains minimum salary, though only should be used as a stacking partner for JJ Peterka, by my eye the Sabres best player for the past two months and is only $4.6k despite averaging 13 DKPts/game over his past ten games.

Dallas (+110) @ Boston (-130): 6.0 Game Total - 1:00 PM EST

Dallas is a true wild card here, as both Lundkvist and Hakanpaa are at risk of missing Monday’s game, which would force a major helping of minutes onto Miro Heiskanen’s plate (27 minutes after Hakanpaa’s 2nd period injury). They recalled an AHL forward, however, so it is unclear which may be able to return. Most importantly, if Hakanpaa plays while Lundkvist does not, it offers Harley-Heiskanen stacking potential, though I don’t feel as strongly that they’ll remain glued at the hip should Hakanpaa miss. Given Miro’s $5.3k price tag, solid minutes floor, and far-improved offensive output playing alongside Harley, I lightly prefer Miro over Harley if it seems as if the DAL blue line will be shorthanded.

I don’t expect any changes to the Dallas top lines, with Ty Dellandrea maintaining his minimum salary price alongside Johnston and Benn despite his last five games looking like this:

Boston is running, based on Sunday’s practice:

Debrusk - Zacha - Pastrnak || Marchand - Coyle - Heinen

PP1 had Marchand Geekie Zacha Pastrnak McAvoy, with Marchand at net-front, though JVR also swapped in for Geekie and took net-front (bumping Marchand out wide, his normal role), so no real certainty one way or the other. Without a top six 5v5 role and Dallas profiling as an elite defense squad, I don’t think I’m going to Boston for my PP1 value plays.

Toronto (-166) @ St. Louis (+140): 6.5 Game Total - 1:00 PM EST

Toronto has a lower team total than the Sabres. Let that sink in.

We’re watching closely for updates on Jake McCabe and Timothy Liljegren, who missed practice Sunday and were termed GTD. Also missing were Lagesson and Domi. With all of Tavares, Marner, and Nylander seemingly on the mend, Toronto rolled a 5F PP1 unit in practice on Sunday, with Bertuzzi effectively replacing Liljegren. Marner played the point on Saturday, given nothing matters in a 9-2 game and every blue-liner is sick or injured, and will man the point on a 5F PP1 unit as well. This makes him a bit better to stack with Matthews, IMO, and at $7k isn’t overly priced for his upside.

It’s worth noting that STL1 has been very solid defensively, with Thomas only allowing 2.1 GA/60 over the past ten games (on 2.8 xGA/60, far worse but still best on the team of the centers).

STL1 will remain as-is, with a second line of Neighbours - Schenn - Kapanen. I don’t mind taking a shot at TOR2 to attack Schenn, and they’ll possibly be PP1 correlated, and if McCabe and Liljegren miss all STL is in play.

I’m keeping an eye on Rielly’s appeal hearing, there’s an outside shot it gets reduced to 3 games and makes him eligible to dress. I’m also watching for Perunovich to play, as it’s possible he’s a late-news addition to the lineup who could play PP1. Unlikely, but possible, and he profiles well at $2.5k even with secondary minutes.

Vancouver (-120) @ Minnesota (+100): 6.5 Game Total - 2:00 PM EST

At first glance, it’s hard for me to unpack why exactly this game is a 6.5 while Vancouver hosting Winnipeg was a 5.5/6 (wound up finishing 4-2). I suspect this may inflate ownership to a degree I am not comfortable with, considering the MIN defense is as stout as ever, with the longstanding goalie issues seeming not to apply to MAF, who is on an unbelievable run of form in his past five appearances. Vancouver, of course, remains very solid defensively, if a tad overrated offensively given their lack of sustainable chance creation.

Coming off of Saturday’s loss to Winnipeg, we had no practice on Sunday, but a lot of complaining about officiating. I’m not suspecting any major changes, Hoglander seemed to have a “normal” performance, which with Joshua out week-to-week, includes a snippet of PP2 time. I lean VAN1 over VAN2, but could be talked into either if projections leave them sub-5% owned.

In Minnesota, MIN1 stuck in Sunday’s practice, with the only changes impacting the bottom of the lineup. Ryan Hartman is likely to center the 4th line while Mason Shaw may make his season debut after recovering from his fourth ACL tear. Incredible story, but nothing to focus on for DFS outside of the top line in Minnesota. I’ll be accepting apology letters from Faber-for-Calder backers, after Bedard clowned on the Senators on Saturday while Faber played 26 minutes of forgettable hockey against the Sabres. At $5.4k, no thank you. Turns out you need to do something with your ice time to be in consideration for both the Calder and for DFS/betting.

Detroit (+110) @ Seattle (-130): 6.0 Game Total - 3:30 PM EST

Detroit confirmed Alex Lyon will start while the rest of the lineup will not change. I would not suspect any line changes either, given a 5-0 beatdown of the Flames on Saturday, thus I expect Kane - Larkin - Rasmussen || DeBrincat - Compher - Raymond in the top six, with the same maddeningly spread-out PP units they’ve used in past weeks. Unsurprisingly, Detroit has the weakest xG Index and among the worst G Indexes on the slate; DET is outside of my consideration set.

Seattle looks to roll McCann - Beniers - Eberle || Schwartz - Wennberg - Burakovsky || Tolvanen - Gourde - Bjorkstrand, with Tye Kartye sitting for Yamamoto on the fourth line. Pricing would technically allow you to consider any of the top three Seattle lines, with SEA2 being the cheapest of the bunch.

While not especially high on my list, I would be remiss to point out that Burakovsky makes the “values” part of The Sheet, despite dismal game logs. Interestingly, this is masking a rather strong 5 shot attempt per game mark over his last ten, to go with 15+ minutes and PP time as part of his projection at $2.7k. You’ll probably want to pair him with Wennberg and/or Schwartz, all of whom share a 5v5 line and PP unit, as I don’t see Burakovsky putting up 19+ DKPts without either of those guys beating their price tags as well.

Edmonton (-238) @ Arizona (+195): 6.5 Game Total - 4:00 PM EST

Arizona played at 6PM on Sunday, making this fit just inside the NHL’s rules for back-to-backs (games must be separated by 22 hours or more) and further accentuating the B2B effects on the Yotes in this spot, flying from elevation in Denver to their home rink for a matchup with a flying Oilers squad. It’s tough to make up positives in Arizona’s favor, coming off 9 straight losses heading into this one, but there are some interesting lines to unpack.

Nick Schmaltz was moved to the fourth line on Sunday, which limited him to just 7 5v5 mins TOI with the rest of his 15 minutes consisting of his PP1 role and PK duties in a penalty-filled game. The game ended with Keller-Hayton-Maccelli seeing run together, which is extremely interesting to me on smaller afternoon slates. It’s likely too thin to try and work into the main slate, but if you’re willing to swap around should this line not make it to pre-game warmups (if we even get that information…) Keller is good enough (and has cheap enough linemates in this scenario, with Hayton and Maccelli both checking in at sub-$4k) to try.

Guenther held his PP1 role while Hayton has worked his way onto the top unit with Durzi, Schmaltz, and Keller. Hayton is in play in all formats as the top line center in ARI, finally seeing 20 minutes TOI with strong enough rates if you look at last year to warrant his price tag.

Edmonton is the main event, which you may not realize after three paragraphs about the Coyotes in a tough spot, and also has confirmed lines:

Draisaitl - McDavid - Perry || Kane - RNH - Hyman.

Holloway will center the 4th line while Connor Brown will mercifully take a seat for this one. Edmonton is a one-man show at this point, as Hyman’s too expensive for a non-McDavidian role, Corey Perry sucks, and Draisaitl will so rarely outscore McDavid while glued to his hip that you’re not likely to one-off him for $7.8k and win.

I think I like McDavid more than Matthews and Pasta, as far as the high-end of the slate goes, but the stacking options leave much to be desired. Chase those Corey Perry points for $3.5k, I’m sure it’ll go great!

Winnipeg (-130) @ Calgary (+110) 5.5 Game Total - 4:00 PM EST

The Scheifele show rolls though Western Canada, facing off with a Calgary team that seems ripe for a shake-up after a devasting 5-0 loss to the Red Wings. While every line could be up for grabs and thus would require checking warmups, I did notice Rasmus Andersson took the final PP1 shift with the top unit. This was an extended 5v3, so there is no guarantee here, but at $5.8k he’s somewhat interesting.

On the Winnipeg side, they went back to Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi, who haven’t played together as much as you might think, and they finally flashed the chemistry we saw in the opening week of the season, posting four goals against a strong Vancouver defense.

Mark Scheifele has been incredible (by his standards), as one of the most efficient players we’ve seen in the modern NHL has been firing nearly 6 shot attempts per game over his last five, up from a season-long mark of 3.8 per game. At $6.4k in a good matchup (great? 5.5 total be damned?) I am betting on Schefiele and his friends to finally get paid off for their strong underlyings, which we saw starting in Vancouver. The PP will improve, the 5v5 pucks will start going in, and these prices will rise. Get a sub-$19k WPG1 while it lasts!

Vegas (-270) @ San Jose (+220) 6.0 Game Total - 4:00 PM EST

We are on HIGH ALERT for Shea Theodore here, as all signs indicate he will return on Monday, though no one has outright said it yet. A point-per-game player at the time of his injury, he was putting up a Norris-worthy season before a shoulder injury.

If Theodore remains out, Miromanov ($2.8k) should play 18-19 minutes with PP time (possibly first unit, where he has been), but coming off a loss to Carolina and with Theodore being likely, I’m not building him in to start.

We have no other lines to work off of, but as SlimCliffy noted in his awesome weekly recap of fantasy-relevant stats, Nic Roy has been one of the best players in the NHL since Christmas, leading the NHL in points/60 at 5v5. Jonathan Marchessault remains on a hot streak (though is priced up to $7.3k) while third linemate Ivan Barbashev makes the values list as well given his strong rates as of late, so VGK2 remains in good position against a hapless Sharks team.

Mark Stone has been good enough lately to consider, though I worry a bit about ownership with Stone-Stephenson being the nominal L1/PP1 guys on a team with a total pushing 4.0. Priced for a combined $11.1k, I’m happy to fade these players who we know have roster-cratering outcomes in their ranges, even if Vegas (and the top PP unit!) score in bunches here.

The Sharks are interesting only in smaller slates, and have a solidified L1 PP1 in Duclair - Granlund - Zetterlund. Eklund will be getting a new set of linemates in Kunin and Hoffman, and SJ1 + Eklund should be joined by Calen Addison to round out the PP1. $3.2k for Addison doesn’t feel great, but PP1 defensemen this cheap don’t grow on trees.

Chicago (+340) @ Carolina (-440) 5.5 Game Total - 7:00 PM EST

Connor Bedard takes on the Carolina Hurricanes in easily the most lopsided game of the night by xG. In real goals, Chicago might project for negative goals based on the last ten games, but an important piece of context is that Connor Bedard has only played in two of those games. They even won one of those. You may have noted Connor Bedard is quite good.

He stacks up favorably to Nathan MacKinnon, Artemi Panarin, and William Nylander (all of whom are ~$8k+ players on DK, you may have noticed lately) at 5v5 on a miserable Chicago club. He’s 18 years old.

All screenshots from the past few days, from Natural Stat Trick.

At $6.6k, you can’t overlook Bedard regardless of matchup, but against Jordan Staal I’m not overly tempted (2 xGA/60 at 5v5 last ten games). If you play Bedard, I think you’ll want to look at Nick Foligno ($3.8k), who is playing very well as of late with a L1/PP1 role next to a phenom.

Reichel is in the AHL while Korchinski was benched last game, so I don’t think there’s any CHI value to discuss.

Carolina is also a wild card, but we’re expecting Jesper Fast to remain on L1 with Aho - Svechnikov, while Jarvis should play alongside Staal - Martinook, leaving Necas - Drury - Bunting and Teuvo L4 to really spread everything out.

This feels like a classic trap spot, where the prices feel low, but when you run though simulations (not real simulations, but like, imagine how the game could go) it’s very easy to see a world where Chicago is happy to try and hold onto a 3-1 deficit and no one gets there in a major way on the Carolina side given they have four lines that could feasibly go off. Given the minutes Bedard plays and the CAR3 role will likely be to hard-match against him, I prefer one-off Jarvis in this spot, in hopes that the PP1 and EV production centralize on him. This allows us to avoid playing Jesper Fast and Jordan Staal, both of whom I expect to be 10%+ owned.

Ottawa (+136) @ Tampa Bay (-162) 7.0 Game Total - 7:00 PM EST

It’s almost a blessing that Tampa is not a -200 or larger favorite here, as a 7.0 game total feels extreme for two teams that struggle to score at 5v5. However, Nikita Kucherov can win you $50k on PP production alone, and coming off a 9-2 loss in Florida on Saturday this Tampa team can smell an Ottawa team on the ropes, with their own loss to Chicago on Saturday fresh on the minds of everyone involved.

Late in the Florida debacle, we saw Kucherov - Point - Hagel, so I am expecting a Stamkos <> Hagel flip on L1 and L2 in AM skate. Make sure you check that one out, however. Additionally, with Nick Paul healthy enough to play we still saw Anthony Cirelli get PP1 run. At $4.8k, he’s too expensive (his role is fundamentally to get out of the way on the PP), but it rules out Nick Paul from consideration at the very least.

Ottawa gets Jake Sanderson back into the lineup, along with Artem Zub, based on Saturday’s game. Sanderson manned the PP1 with Norris, Tkachuk, Giroux, and Pinto on Saturday, with Chabot, Chychrun, Stutzle, Tarasenko, Batherson making up PP2.

We have no lines for Ottawa, so I’m paying close attention to AM skate if I am interested in Ottawa.

A few general slate thoughts:

• I’m likely to pick from Vegas, Winnipeg, Dallas - I want EDM but am not sure there’s enough value to make McDavid work with what I want to do (which is fade Corey Perry, primarily).

• Shea Theodore. That’s the tweet.

• TOR2 is weaseling its way into my brain, but the TOR D situation is so fluid I may reserve TOR2 for something like a game stack with STL pieces if they are truly without Rielly, McCabe, and Liljegren.

• BUF and TB appear to have two of the highest team totals with reasonable prices, so I’m very mindful of ownership there. If it seems TB will be lower than 15% or so, Kucherov 25%, I have no problem stacking Kucherov into ownership particularly if we get Hagel L1 news. The field will just have to learn their lesson on Buffalo (or Tage can have his one monthly good game for Field, The).

• MIN1? Boldy leading the slate in xFPPG is not what I expected to see, and we just saw WPG1 do serious damage to this overrated VAN squad. Good defensively, yes, but MIN1 is the concentration of their three best players.

Follow me @FakeMoods, join the Discord, and all that good stuff. We’ll be back in your earholes on the Morning Skate Podcast for a Tuesday slate breakdown.

Good luck, and stay tuned to this newsletter for recaps of the Monday slate and the Tuesday slate (with $200k to first in the $555), similar to the one I did in January and prior months!