Saturday 10-12 NHL DFS Quick Thoughts

I was going to post this in the Discord, but Word wants to paste it as a picture.. so pasting here. It was not planned, so apologies for the late email.

There's a lot to work through. quick fire thoughts on all 12 games:

BUF – FLA:

BUF uncertain lines, JJP is out and was with Quinn-Cozens yesterday. Tentatively planning for Quinn-Tage-Tuch, Kulich-Cozens-Benson, Greenway-McLeod-Zucker, based on Lindy saying something to imply Quinn and Cozens would be broken up. Truly no idea, however. Expecting PP1 Tage-Tuch to return after Zucker went there last game, while Power might stay? It’s all a mess.

Speaking of messes, FLA has no Barkov, no Tkachuk, and Knight starts. Lundell-Reinhart-Luosto is their best line, Bennett probably centers Verhaeghe and ERod but no confirmation there. Expecting Lundell to be Barkov and Bennett to be Tkahcuk for FLA PP1. I really like Lundell in all aspects, and his shot prop has flown up since I bet It this AM.

PIT – TOR:

PIT has Rust back in the lineup, expecting that to be a 1-for-1 Letang replacement on PP1. Sid with Rust and Beauv, though the DOC should mix in for some shifts with Sid and Rust.

TOR might be missing Tavares, Patches was with PP1 this AM. Knies did not hit 19 mins like in game 1 (a shade under 16 vs NJ in a game they led start to finish), but is PP2 and killing penalties. I like him if playing Matthews-Marner more than I do a one-off Michkov/Cutter, tbh, though he’s more expensive.

OTT – MTL:

Minor changes for OTT, most impactful is Greig to L4C and Gregor to L2. Gregor is an empty calorie shooter, while Greig is a play driver. Not much interest in a still-cheap Norris-Batherson on this slate, but Sanderson is a good value.

MTL has only minor changes at the margins. Keeping an eye on Oliver Kapanen, he profiles really well as a ’21 2^nd rounder with awesome overseas stats last year.

NSH – DET:

NSH trying Sissons between Stamkos-Marchessault… will any passes be completed?

DET scratches Gustafsson, moving Seider to PP1 (that does not feature DeBrincat) and Chiarot to PP2. Yes, that Ben Chiarot. If you really like DeBrincat-Larkin-Kane, a new line with Raymond flipping with Kane, I think Chiarot and Seider are both good values considering PP role increases. Lots of BS equity between them.

UTA – NYR:

Dylan Guenther. Rocket Richard? Otherwise, no UTA changes. Don’t forget Guenther though, at 1%.

NYR no changes besides Rempe in.

NJ – WSH:

NJ no changes, stacked L1 with Mack-Matthews-McDavid in nut spots will almost certainly be low-owned.

WSH debut, Ovi <$6k probably won’t happen again, Chychrun $3.5k definitely won’t happen again. They also correlate on PP2, which Ovi is also a part of. Good options to bring back a NJ stack in a PP-happy environment, or one where WSH trails and is chucking shots.

NYI – DAL:

NYI1 is way too cheap, with no Wyatt on L1 that line is at least weaker defensively than they could be. Duclair 3k is every bit as good as Cutter, imo.

DAL still without Bourque, leaving Wyatt L3C. Every stack here is cheap. Good luck picking which one will break a 12-game slate. Lightly prefer $9.4k for Benn-Wyatt.

SEA – MIN (hehe):

SEA flipping Wright with Beniers, meaning Mccann + Wright look nice, particularly in turbo slates that don’t feature, well, everyone.

MIN same, price of Spurgeon is back to normal.

CBJ – COL:

CBJ no changes, were very competitive with MIN. Kent Johnson on L3 PP1 was awesome (1G 1A 4SOG), $2.6k he’s right in the mix with how weak COL depth is.

COL is without Drouin, Kovalenko slides to L1, Ross Colton to L2 and PP1. Both are great values.

PHI – CGY:

Ersson looks to start B2B nights for PHI. Frost was with TK-Michkov to close, while Couturier moved to L3. With Luchanko sitting, Cates is in and might mean Couts-TK and Frost-Tipp with Cates L3. Michkov? Who knows. Good play regardless, stay tuned for warmups.

CGY no changes except Wolf starts.

CHI – EDM:

CHI on a b2b probably sticks with what worked last night, Foligno L1 with Bedard-Teuvo. Kurashev birthday 👀

EDM same despite a 6-0 loss opening night. Mega favorites, COL and EDM should take up ~20% ownership each and Mack/McD could push 30-35 with how much value is out there.

SJ – ANA:

SJ is without Macklin, lines are a ? but assume Granlund + Toffoli. Walman still interesting at $4.5k.

ANA is scratching Zellweger, leaving LaCombe (who sucks) to QB PP1. If Cutter is going to be owned with every option available, he’s at the back of the pack for me. Killorn at 5v5 and LaCombe at PP1 kill some of the vibe, though Leo is quite good and also cheap for $3.7k. I would stack Cutter with Leo, if anything.