What a week. The weight has been lifted. Sunday was the best Moods day of the year by a country mile, beginning with the firing of Jim Hiller and ending with my biggest night of the past year. It’s been a tough year, and this doesn’t even get me back to even on my stupid Rototracker, so it’s with a bit of shame that I post screenshots like that, but it’s also the game and I think people understand that to some level. For one day, I was truly on top of every single leaderboard where I belong!

The losing has subsided, and Brandt Clarke has been freed. I promised that I would “bet the board” on Clarke on Thursday, and his two assist night, including an unbelievable feed to Adrian Kempe to cap off an unreal play and to cash my Discord-touted SGP of Kempe G + Clarke A, was quite profitable for me in both the DFS game and across many bets.

Friday brings us the Trade Deadline, kicking off the official start of my favorite time of year: time to dust off prospect profiles, start the tank engines, and get to the bottom of each team from both a talent perspective and motivation perspective. We have seven games on this particular Friday, and while a lot of balls are still in the air and final decisions must be made after the dust of the deadline settles, let’s take a look at the slate.

The main slate starts at 7PM EST with just one game before things get moving later on, including puck drops at 8, 8:30, 9(x2), and 10PM(x2).

I keep lists of beat writers for every team in the league, if you want a headstart in checking your stacks and your goalies. The NHL one includes all 32 teams and is useful in the lead up to a big slate, or as your Twitter homepage.

https://x.com/FakeMoods/lists

The rainbow sheet functions by calculating performances on a game-by-game basis while adjusting for opponent to generate a performance above baseline (that accounts for schedule strength). I then line up each team offensively with their opponent defensively to generate the matchups displayed below. All stats are all L10 games 5v5 stats, which also means there are factors specifically unaccounted such as current lineup notes (injuries/returns) and special teams.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Florida (+130) @ Detroit (-155) ||| o5.5 -135

This matchup feels pretty bland. Listed with just a 5.5 total and Florida on a back-to-back, it feels quite easy to cross Florida out. Aaron Ekblad is $3300 and picked up two assists on FLA’s only two goals in Columbus, so it seems likely he keeps the PP1 gig for one more game despite the return of Uvis Balinskis. The rest of the FLA lineup has not returned to a cheap enough range for me to seriously consider.

On the Detroit side, it is worth monitoring the ownership on Michael Rasmussen compared to someone like Collin Graf. Rasmussen offers very little except for cheap exposure to Kane-Larkin, both of whom will skate together at 5v5 and on the PP1. If it appears that we need a super cheap punt, there’s no reason to pile in on a guy like Graf when they are all extremely thin plays. I tend to like Rasmussen, he’s a big guy who has a touch of skill. The results to-date this season haven’t lived up to what he showed previously, however, so he’s nowhere close to a priority.

Kane-Larkin is cheaper than DeBrincat-Raymond, but these are the dynamic duos. They’re fine. Raymond is owed a good bit better luck than he’s gotten recently (L10 xFPPG = 12.5, actual FPPG = 10) while DeBrincat drives the bus offensively, so while it’s nearly $3k more, give me Cat-Raymond if forced to choose.

I’ll be scouring for Raymond point props, especially if there’s anything upside-laden on the market.

MOODS’ DUDES: Alex DeBrincat ($7300), Lucas Raymond ($6000), Aaron Ekblad ($3300)

Colorado (-120) @ Dallas (+100) ||| o5.5 -135

A possible Central Division showdown, Dallas has come out of the break playing surprisingly strong hockey considering the number of injuries they are dealing with.

A huge catalyst to this end has been Thomas Harley, who over the past ten Stars games (dating back to Jan 23rd) is rocking a 60% CF%, 58% xGF%, and 66% GF%. This is a far cry from the first half of the season where he looked like a genuine liability out there, and had lost his offensive/fantasy spark to boot. The Olympics were quite good from his end, once again going from an afterthought to a core defender with an injury to Josh Morrissey. While Harley isn’t slipping past anyone, he’s just $4700 on this slate and he’s the best <$5k play in my book. With 9 points in his last 10 games, the offense and fantasy production has come along with his strong on-ice results, and the Stars are back to looking like a complete juggernaut to boot.

Colorado is no slouch themselves, and can throw their fastball at any time. With Roope Hintz likely back for Dallas, however, furthering their two way prowess, I have no interesting in paying a ton of money for a road Colorado team. MacKinnon has been good, but it’s hard to argue he’s been $10k good, especially when their PP is irreparably broken. At least Cale Makar “loved” the PP when MacKinnon missed a game and COL scored twice, I am sure there is no relation there.

I am a bit worried about being overexposed to this game, especially considering that we don’t know how Hintz mixes back in if he does in fact return, and Michael Bunting is likely to get a role as well. We could very well see a change from “two” real lines to three in this one, and given the matchup I’ll just stick to what I really want to do here with five games remaining.

MOODS’ DUDES: Thomas Harley ($4700)

Vancouver (+120) @ Chicago (-142) ||| o6.5 +110

Vancouver is burning some midnight oil along with your friends moods here, as they made a trade sending Conor Garland to Columbus as I write this here newsletter. With Evander Kane as a GTD due to illness, Jonathan Lekkerimaki out for the year due to injury, and Garland gone, the fantasy pieces are fading fast in Vancouver.

Fortunately for us, they are also getting progressively cheaper. If Liam Ohgren can step into the vacated PP role left by Garland, Ohgren-Rossi-Boeser could be $11000 with firm PP roles and great fantasy profiles in a matchup against the Blackhawks who just lost Jason Dickinson. This 6.5 total is pretty revealing, and I think both sides of this game offer up very interesting, cheap, pieces. EP40 is $4600 and no one is gonna play him! He has 6 primary assists in the last ten games, 7 in total, and his top line wing in Nils Hoglander is the dead minimum. There’s plenty of value here to consider.

On the Chicago side we are watching for Nick Foligno to be traded, if so I think Ryan Donato finally gets a PP2 role back. You probably don’t even need a $10.9K L2 though, considering VAN2 is more fun. Bedard is $7100 in a top two matchup in the league, a price he hasn’t seen since the beginning of the year. He’s been phenomenal! This is truly a one-man show, leave any stacking to the VAN side of things. Sam Rinzel is confirmed on PP1 per practice on Thursday, if you need a CHI stack.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor Bedard ($7100), Brock Boeser ($4100), Liam Ohgren ($3200)

Carolina (-115) @ Edmonton (-105) ||| o6.5 -130

The latest rendition of “Can Edmonton save their season” is set to take the ice on Friday, as while they failed spectacularly at “finding a save” from their goalies, they now move on to investing premium assets in shoring up their defense… by using Chicago Blackhawks. Bold strategy, cotton.

All jokes aside, I do like the trade for Jason Dickinson, as he gives them a safety blanket they’ve sorely missed since the trade of Ryan McLeod. This from a few years ago is all of a sudden relevant again, huh? https://moods.beehiiv.com/p/2023-24-edm-oilers. I still believe the best approach for Edmonton is to intentionally slow the game to an absolute crawl when one of McDavid or Draisaitl are not on the ice, and Dickinson is among the best wet blankets in the game. Connor Murphy is neither here nor there, but replacing Alec Regula or Spencer Stastney in the lineup is never a bad idea.

I do worry about the Oilers ability to tilt the ice against this solid Canes squad, and they’ll require a heroic Draisaitl performance to generate a ton off the rush outside of the normal McDavid nonsense. It’s hard to call these prices bad prices, but $18k for McDrai is a bit rich in one of the worst possible matchups. Factor in the bolstered depth and focus on fixing their defense, and I could see this game being ramped way up or way down in pace, and I think the field will largely consider this one of the top three games to stack.

The Hurricanes should be pretty normal, and their star Seth Jarvis has not posted a score of 25.6 or better since December started. Jim Hiller would be the coach of the Kings for three more months! For $7700, that’s simply unacceptable as a ceiling range of outcomes, and I can’t recommend stacking the top line as a result. Nik Ehlers is coming off a hat trick, and while I get a Staal-Ehlers stack, I’m not chasing points into a possible showdown between Jordan Staal and Jason Dickinson. Good god, man. Let’s move on.

MOODS’ DUDES: Connor McDavid ($9500), Leon Draisaitl ($8500)

Montreal (-110) @ Anaheim (-110) ||| o6.5 -122

And, take a deep breath. Feel the fresh air. The sun is shining, the birds are chirping. The Habs and Ducks are squaring off at the Honda Center in what should be one of the most exhilarating games of the season in my eyes. The high flying Canadiens, fresh off a 12-goal, 7-5 loss in San Jose, seek revenge against a Ducks squad whose five games since the break feature an average of 7.4 goals per game. The xGs back this one up, and we’re even setting up for some of the best news possible in terms of fantasy friendliness.

For Montreal, Juraj Slafkovsky looks set to rejoin the top line, fresh off a run of dominance on the second line that led to another standout Olympics performance. A perfectly correlated L1 runs $19600, and is pretty clearly the top option. Alex Newhook slots in on L2, which is $11600 but Oliver Kapanen has lost his PP2 gig with Newhook’s return. Ivan Demidov’s rates are trending upward, but losing Slafkovsky makes him a tough click.

Anaheim, in a similar vein, should be without Mikael Granlund and Troy Terry, which shovels minutes onto Leo Carlsson’s plate. With the way he’s playing right now, and how Cutter Gauthier is glued to his hip in every game state, $13900 is simply too cheap. Cutter is having one of the most ridiculous seasons in recent memory, ranking 5th in 5v5 goals (19), 2nd in 5v5 shots (158, MacKinnon 165(!)), and 13th/3rd (behind just Mack and 4 back of McDavid shots in 300 less minutes) in all situations. With the Ducks PP striking in four of the past five games post-break, all the top unit of Leo-Cutter, it’s safe to say that there is no bad time to deploy Cutter Gauthier in your lineups or betting slips.

Chris Kreider is there, as is Jackson LaCombe, and Beckett Sennecke is preferable but $6100. I am fine with Leo-Cutter, but you may want to take a swing at making it a larger stack via a PP1 option or a MTL stack opposite this one. Saving money on ANA is a tough sell, personally, though Frank Vatrano is $2900 and played a reasonable role last game including nabbing the ENG.

Anaheim just traded for John Carlson, but I find it unlikely that he’s playing a game across the country 21 hours later, so I expect the same D Pairs as before. Regardless, LaCombe has been quite good and is getting a tad unlucky, furthering the PP1 possibility there.

MOODS’ DUDES: Cutter Gauthier ($7600), Leo Carlsson ($6300), Juraj Slafkovsky ($5400)

St. Louis (+114) @ San Jose (-135) ||| o6.5 +110

While this one doesn’t shine quite as bright as the last game, I have a decent amount of time for the St. Louis Blues specifically. They are being priced close to Vancouver, and they are simply far more competitive. Dylan Holloway has looked electric coming off of the Olympic break, and his situation makes perfect sense. He dealt with a high ankle sprain earlier this season, tried to return before the break, and re-aggravated it. Getting multiple weeks off solely to recuperate seems to have done him wonders, as he is now averaging 11.1 xFPPG and 16.5 aFPPG in these four games, thanks to 4 goals on 23 shot attempts. Playing on a 5v5 line with Dalibor Dvorsky (and leading the team in TOI!) and a PP1 unit with Robert Thomas, Holloway is truly capable of being an offensive alpha again. Against the Sharks depth as the top six focuses on Robert Thomas and Kyrou’s lines? Yeah, that’ll do.

Defensively, Logan Mailloux has stepped up in a huge way with Colton Parayko out. In the first 19-20 minute role of his career, Mailloux has put up 13 shots and 2 goals in 4 games to go with a blocks bonus mixed in. It’s just four games, yes, but his shot volume (5.25 attempts/game) matches that of MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson, and Shayne Gostisbehere on the season. He’s $3200 on a slate without a ton of reliable D options with lots of studs to spend for, and gets exposure to what should be a fun game.

The Sharks went ahead and signed Kiefer Sherwood to a sizable extension, which seems foolish. They did move him off of the PP1, at the very least, so Tyler Toffoli + Dmitry Orlov give the core of Macklin/Smith/Wennberg the best chance of producing. In a vacuum I really like Will Smith, and his 11.3 xFPPG and 11.9 actual output are right in line with his $5700 price tag… but I can’t get there on this slate. Sorry, Will. I just think St. Louis is better than people acknowledge, and with so many other options this is an easier one for me to cross out.

Michael Misa is actively blossoming before our very eyes. He’s $3000, don’t miss out before it’s too late as the #2 pick has posted 8 points in 10 games. With how good Schaefer has been, Misa can be the clear #2 and be incredible, keep in mind. His recent production has been somewhat flukey, with just 5.1 xFPPG over L10, but the underlying process is there with a stellar xG profile, especially alongside Toffoli and Eklund:

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Holloway ($5300), Logan Mailloux ($3200), Michael Misa ($3000)

Minnesota (-102) @ Vegas (-118) ||| o6.5 +114

Another first round rematch from last year (along with DAL-COL, that of course is missing the Mikko Rantanen factor tonight), MIN gave VGK all they could handle last season. With VGK sputtering and MIN continuing to roll, including their most recent win a 5-1 demolition of the Lightning, this game is effectively a pick’em while the Knights are at home.

While the Wild just traded for Michael McCarron and claimed Robby Fabbri off waivers, the attirition in their lineup continues to hit with Marcus Johansson set to miss the next little while. Vladimir Tarasenko slides up the lineup, and we’ve seen him spike this season at just $3500. The main attractions are of course Kaprizov and Boldy, who are a step lower than McDavid/MacKinnon/Celebrini in price yet have been similarly dominant lately, combining for nearly 32 xFPPG over the last ten games at a $16300 cumulative tag. That’s 2x their salary at a grand scale, and a casual 6 xFP better than Leo/Cutter (and just $2000 less) and 2 xFP behind McDrai (who are almost $2000 more) when comparing duos in this late window.

Quinn Hughes’ price has gotten out of control, so it’s a fairly limited menu of Wild for me on Friday. On the Vegas side, Mark Stone is on IR and leaves Braeden Bowman to slot in alongside Eichel on L1 and PP1. I noticed his PP prop was lagging last game, and the Wild have a notoriously weak PK over the long term (and are bottom ten this year in any category you look at), so that is the first spot I’d check if looking to invest in some Vegas action on Friday night.

Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb were re-united on Wednesday after McNabb’s return saw him skating with Kaedan Korczak, and Theodore responded with an assist, 2 shots, and a blocks bonus. That 15 DKPt score was more than he’d posted in nearly two months, while McNabb was injured on NYE. Interesting timing, that is.

$4500 doesn’t quite do it for me on Theodore, but he’s firmly planted on my radar. I lightly prefer the Minnesota side in this one, but since we don’t technically know how Vegas is lining up, I’m keeping an eye out for Colton Sissons in the top six as he and Bowman are the clear possible values at <$3000, and Vegas could be looking to get Marner a new linemate or something.

MOODS’ DUDES: Matt Boldy ($7900), Vladimir Tarasenko ($3500)

Last week, I posted this and got some great feedback, and I appreciate everyone for caring. Let’s run this one back. I have fielded a few questions about how to support our work, and we never have a great answer. I’m just going to go ahead and ask for support on various causes I care about in this part of the newsletter, and if you feel obligated it would mean the world to me that we can have a positive impact on others:

It is, and will remain for the next while, a free newsletter. If this sort of charity is not for you or not in the cards currently, that’s totally fine. I just want to give the offramp in case it’s been a thought you’ve had but you're not too sure what to do.

DJ and I went to high school together (and have been friends, famously, since third grade). One of our classmates/teammates lost his mom unexpectedly a few years ago, and in her honor around her birthday (Feb 18th) each year he kicks back up the Lisa Marcera Miracle Fund, a neat initiative in her name to continue helping the animals in the Rochester/Western New York region she cared so deeply about. You can read more about it here: https://puppymillrescueteam.org/lisa-marcera-miracle-fund/.

You could walk in at any time and feel welcomed, greeted with a smile and a thoughtful conversation (and eventually as we aged, a beer). I think this is a beautiful tribute and thus am happy to spotlight this great initiative. LOOK AT THIS HUSKY. While I am a cat guy through and through, I absolutely adore huskies:

As always, thanks for reading!

Follow me on X @FakeMoods, and to subscribe to this newsletter. I write ~once a week during the NHL DFS season, previewing DFS slates or reviewing the major contests on DraftKings. You should also subscribe to DJ Mitchell’s YouTube channel, where we stream MSP live (or post right after recording) on Monday and Wednesday nights. We plan to be live on Saturday as well to go over the massive day of games around the league. I am posting some stuff on my own personal YT channel as well, with a few pre-season Underdog drafts up at the moment and our preseason betting deep dive. And join the Discord (DM me if you want in the MSP Discord), if you somehow haven’t already. The Morning Skate Podcast is on iTunes, Sticher, Spotify, and (probably) any other podcast app of your choosing!