A nice set of four games awaits us on Friday. Good luck to all of the DraftKings Fantasy Hockey World Championship competitors, who are assembled in Miami's finest soup kitchen to determine who takes the crown of Best NHL DFS Player not named nolt0032 on Saturday evening. If Matt wins the contest, the trophy presentation may get a bit awkward…

Before we get into Friday, I will be doing a livestream of some sort on Saturday. Details TBD, I am thinking noon-ish pending DJ availability. I've gotten more than a few questions actually about it, so thank you for thinking of me when you think “what poor schmuck is gonna take three hours out of his day to prepare for and talk about a set of hockey games in which he is guaranteed to lose a small fortune no matter what the outcomes are?" When you finish in fourth (behind Matt’s three teams), consider contributing to my child's college fund (which will in turn be invested in LA Kings futures once Pete DeBoer is announced).

Oh, right. How about those Olympics? Pretty cool, right? Everyone is handling everything perfectly.

The Olympics Newsletter was updated daily with an update log, and through that fortnight I pretty quickly learned that Beehiiv has a character limit. That’s right, in all of my previous rants and ramblings in this newsletter, I have never reached that limit. Scary. In the course of the Olympics, however, this newsletter did numbers I didn't think were possible. Did I cheat those numbers by making people view the article several times with all the updates? Perhaps, but you kept coming back. Suckers. One day I'll manage to squeeze you for tens of dollars, collectively.

I truly enjoyed waking up at 6AM every day after posting my newsletter update at 2AM to collect some of the biggest EV gains I’ve ever been able to gather in this space in over a decade now, like truly honest to god up at 6AM ready to get after it… and I still got my ass handed to me. By DJ, the greatest Olympics DFSer to ever do it.

It's been a super normal few months here. Bonechilling stuff. I think firing Jim Hiller will fix it.

The main slate starts at 7PM EST with two games and closes with a 9PM start and a 10PM start. Just the right amount for this newsletter, maybe a bit light for trying to make a night out of hockey watching. I’ll keep lobbying for PWHL DFS, but in the meantime this slate is so dire that I might have to put Toronto (led by Daryl Watts) vs. Seattle (featuring Knight-Carpenter-Bilka) on a second or third screen at 10PM if they show the PWHL on TV here.

I keep lists of beat writers for every team in the league, if you want a headstart in checking your stacks and your goalies. The NHL one includes all 32 teams and is useful in the lead up to a big slate, or as your Twitter homepage.

https://x.com/FakeMoods/lists

The rainbow sheet functions by calculating performances on a game-by-game basis while adjusting for opponent to generate a performance above baseline (that accounts for schedule strength). I then line up each team offensively with their opponent defensively to generate the matchups displayed below. All stats are all L10 games 5v5 stats, which also means there are factors specifically unaccounted such as current lineup notes (injuries/returns) and special teams.

All stats from naturalstattrick.com unless otherwise noted.

Odds and Totals from DK Sportsbook

Buffalo (+100) @ Florida (-120) ||| o6.5 +100

The margins are very tight on Friday, with four game totals sitting between ~5.7 and 6.5 and four ML favorites ranging from -120 to -135. You can’t immediately cross out any spot, in my opinion, so it’ll matter a lot what the consensus take is. I suspect that $3900 Jack Quinn will not top many people’s lists on Friday, but he is where I want to start on this slate. Buffalo has desperately struggled to turn their 5v5 scoring prowess into 5v4 production, and while Tage's missile from the Ovi spot is sick when it scores… there’s a reason only Ovechkin himself has truly dominated from that far away from the goalie in the past twenty years.

Enter Jack Quinn, who is the right shot to spell Tage and free him up to move around the formation. While the Sabres haven’t leaned into Tage in the Mark Stone spot (like he played for the US, largely below the goal line), I suspect that this is the next iteration. With that in mind, this is truly Dahlin and Quinn's show atop the formation. Say, did we see Tage do good things next to a guy named Jack and a guy named Quinn recently? What if I told you you can even spin it so that they had the same last name!

Heading into the break, Jack Quinn was playing some tremendous hockey, and while he was quiet against New Jersey on the scoresheet, BUF3 pounded the piss out of a Devils squad that chose to match up against Norris and Tage instead:

Averaging 10.3 xFPPG over his last ten and getting 9.0 actual DK Pts/game are great numbers for player priced at just $3900, and you can mix in Dahlin on defense ($6500) and Zucker ($4600) as a L3 PP1 stacking partner. Tage is of course in play at $8200, making two incredible plays to be the literal difference for Buffalo against NJ.

For me, however, Jack Quinn is the hottest two names in hockey.

MOODS’ DUDES: Tage Thompson ($8200), Rasmus Dahlin ($6500), Jack Quinn ($3900)

Florida is coming off an impressive effort against Toronto on Thursday, a game that both DJ and I were extremely wrong about on the MSP episode in question. Toronto simply didn't bring anything to the table, and while this could be the start of an incredible Panthers run, I am still skeptical that they have enough offense to truly be a threat. Tkachuk still seems limited, Marchand is banged up to the point of ineffective, Evan Rodrigues is centering the top line, and their defense is brutal without Seth Jones. E-Rod is at least cheap, so I have no problem chasing those points on a slate with limited punt options.

Buffalo has not been dominating the flow of play, but when you’re constantly leading and getting A+ goaltending, you’ll find yourself in the throes of score effects more often than not. Sam Reinhart and E-Rod will need to show up big time for this revenge game, or else we’ll be asking a lot from Florida to contribute to a 6.5 total.

I see all four games reasonably similar, and with this a 6.5 and FLA favored, I suspect ownership will build up here more than it should, and while you’ll have that spread across three lines, I don't feel great about any of these combinations to pay Florida Panthers prices on a team that has constantly underperformed on the offensive side.

MOODS’ DUDES: Sam Reinhart ($7000), Evan Rodrigues ($3500)

Vegas (-105) @ Washington (-115) ||| o5.5 -125

I am projecting VGK to roll Eichel with Barbashev, Marner with Stone, and Hertl with Kolesar. Otherwise.. I dunno. I think Dorofeyev sticks with Marner at C, leaving Reilly Smith and someone to fight for a top line role and a third line job. Reilly Smith gets one of them, so let’s be bold and go with Tanner Lacynski on the top line, who last time we saw him was usurping Alexander Holtz on the VGK PP1 and picking up a primary assist. He's also been fantastic in Henderson, putting up points by the bushel and adding a nice shot rate to boot. Braeden Bowman remains terrible, but he's a realistic top line option too.

I can't believe Brayden McNabb's performance against LA, picking up 4 blocks, 4 shots, and 2 assists, but with Shea Theodore back he’s a premier D value at $3100 even if we weren’t nakedly points chasing. My version of VGK2 is nearly $20k, which is tough to stomach. The Caps will remain without John Carlson on Friday, but I am slotting this game in my last place position in terms of interest.

MOODS’ DUDES: Brayden McNabb ($3100), Tanner Laczynski ($3000)

I rely on this as a crutch any time WSH shows up on these slates, but Spencer Carbery is truly the best listen out there. He was on the PDOcast this week, and holding court today I found him to be extremely forthcoming and gave a massive tribute to Sonny Milano, who was waived on Thursday. He just seems like the absolute best dude, and is the exact sort of person I would want to play for and to be representing my hockey team. If you want to take a moment away from hating Jim Hiller or taking sides on American Political Theater, we could all use some Spencer Carbery love in our lives.

A breaking news development in Moods Dudeland this week was the emergence of Ethen Frank (who Carbery similarly raved about in the linked interview above along with Milano) as a bonafide cat dad.

Three cats? All rescues? We are all in on Ethen Frank.

With Tom Wilson back, Frank’s role probably is diminished, but if Beauvillier takes a spill down the lineup instead $3100 is not bad for someone who has almost certainly locked himself into a PP role despite the Caps being fully healthy up front. Duhaime and Dowd also play a ton in leading game scripts, so the bottom six role might not be as bad as advertised.

Pierre-Luc Dubois returned right before the break, and remains just $3800 centering McMichael (who missed time before the break too) and Ryan Leonard, unless Wilson slots in there in which case Leonard probably moves up to Sourdif’s line (though that could be Frank too...). PLD did not play PP1 last game until the last PP opportunity, and Sourdif was the guy in his stead (with Frank replacing Wilson), which I just don't see lasting long-term. PLD has longterm rates that are similar to Dylan Strome, and while Strome should see more O-Zone starts, a $2000 price difference with more of PLD’s value being derived from shots is far too much. If anything, I'd play Ovi-Strome with PLD and Chychrun to cap a PP1 stack.

With no John Carlson, Chychrun is in line to play 25+ minutes with a monopoly on PP time. He could even stay with Ovi for both PP units. I prefer him to Dahlin, even if he weren’t $200 cheaper.

MOODS’ DUDES: Jakub Chychrun ($6300), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($3800), Ethen Frank (3 Cats)

Minnesota (+114) @ Utah (-135) ||| o5.5 -135

This Matt Boldy guy might be good. Now, two ENGs probably is overselling it a touch, especially given the nature of how they were collected (Boldy had already iced the game, before MacKinnon and Necas decided to connect on a goal down three with 1 minute left?), but the process has been spectacular for Boldy, even with him missing a few games before the break. He's shooting a truckload, outshooting even Kaprizov on the season and matching him in current expected output, while being nearly 3 points higher per game in actual DK output. He’s just $7700 for a profile that could very well be $9k+. You may have also seen his goal in the Gold Medal game, one of the most incredible individual efforts in hockey history considering the way that Canada completely locked down the US at 5v5 for the vast majority of that game!

Quinn Hughes at $7800 is just getting ridiculous, he is not head and shoulders above the other D options IMO, while Kaprizov at $8700 is in play his linemates both being >$5k is a tough pill to swallow. I prefer Boldy-JEEK if anything. Most everyone else has been something of a fantasy black hole, with only Faber being someone I’ve not yet mentioned and would consider (but $5300 feels fair).

MIN-UTA and VGK-WSH have similar xG trends, but stylistically I prefer MIN-UTA. Ironically, those are the two 5.5s, and while I stand by these four games being reasonably similar and probably not leading to outsized leverage one place or another, it’s also not a terrible idea to lean in to an edge which this game may offer in the form of a game stack.

MOODS’ DUDES: Matt Boldy ($7700), Joel Eriksson Ek ($5900)

Utah suffered a 4-2 defeat to the Avs coming out of the break, and both Keller and Schmaltz (plus a couple defenders) missed practice today due to illness. I would expect them both to play, and to play together, but their third linemate could be a question. I think they give it one more go with their new lines from last game, as with Logan Cooley back I think they really want to make him and Guenther work away from Keller, while Peterka-Hayton-Yamamoto has been good to the point where you maybe don't touch it for now.

For $10300, UTA3 has three PP players and combine for 24 xFPPG and 26 DKPts per game over the last ten. That’ll do.

Logan Cooley had a slow game out of the gates, managing only two shot attempts and a paltry 2.7 xFPs in his first game back from extended absence. That said, his presence (along with Jack McBain's) makes Dylan Guenther nearly optimal, considering the passing ability and the deferral tendencies of both players. As the key focal point of the PP1, there’s nary a game setting in which Dylan Guenther is overmatched, and at home against a b2b Wild team that lacks depth, Guenther will be the Queen that is deployed all around the board to pick on matchup advantages barring significant lineup changes.

Shoutout to Dylan Guenther for also averaging the exact same xFPPG as aFPPG over the last ten (11.80). That happens way more often than it should, seemingly.

Sean Durzi <$4k is lightly interesting, but in general this team just doesn’t offer much fantasy upside for defensemen, and I like a lot of players on this slate in the other games to fill the two D slots.

MOODS’ DUDES: Dylan Guenther ($6600), Barrett Hayton ($3700), Kailer Yamamoto ($2600)

Winnipeg (+110) @ Anaheim (-130) ||| o6.5 +110

Winnipeg lost Josh Morrissey to an injury at the Olympics (won’t return on this road trip, possibly next week back home) and Neal Pionk to a practice injury (listed as week-to-week). That offers us the weirdest set of circumstances maybe yet this season, where Logan Stanley is a true alpha. Playing a staggering 25:34 on Wednesday, he hit the shot bonus while doing nothing else on the scoresheet. For just $3700, you'd take even that output, but we are talking about a guy who usually manages to get in front of a puck or two, and who is RUNNING THE WINNIPEG JETS PP1. Yeah. I dunno. It is fun as hell, but is it good for the Jets? Probably not. Stanley has been a high rates guy all year long, and it does seem like offense has begotten offense for him in particular. With his toolkit, he feels like a DFS lock, and I’ll be looking hard at his player props.

WPG1 played 23 minutes across the board in Vancouver and is loaded up. Will Mikael Granlund return for Anaheim to match up with them? Probably not, actually, based on practice today, which is a bit of a bummer for WPG1 fans, imo. They are quite good, but I do wonder what Stanley + WPG1 leaves you with as a stack, as this being the highest owned stack of the night by a sizable amount just makes too much sense.

The middle six options for WPG are quite cheap, especially Namestnikov-Toews-Nyquist, but the reason for that is that they are terrible, and if the PP1 isn’t getting it done PP2 probably won’t either, especially now with Pionk not running the unit. Cole Perfetti is a fringe option, but 14 minutes, Adam Lowry-Alex Iafallo teammates, and a recent price hike to $4800 doesn't do it for me.

If playing Stanley + WPG1, I would maybe try to go away from a 3 stack as the secondary, allowing a 2-1-1 to spread your skater exposure a bit to avoid duplication? I worry that you can play everything with them in such an obvious way.

MOODS’ DUDES: Kyle Connor ($7600), Mark Scheifele ($7100), Logan Stanley ($3700)

Welcome back, Leo Carlsson. The prodigal son returned with a three-point night, and gives Cutter Gauthier an excuse to play away from Jeffrey Viel, who he was managing to produce quite well with through the past month with all of Anaheim’s injuries. Leo Carlsson rocks, the only struggle I have is PP units (Kreider-Gauthier-Sennecke-LaCombe feels like a top unit? But it was Poehling there last game…) and general pricing dynamics. The Mintyukov PP1 experience hasn’t been anything to write home about, so I think I am limiting myself to Leo-Cutter stuff. If playing Chris Kreider, I am probably trying to find room for a $5000 LaCombe, as he's been excellent on the season rates-wise, and I would want to just bet on that PP unit clicking even if Leo is the crux of the 5v5 argument. I see a lot of people double punting D, or playing Stanley with a Chychrun, but the 4-5k range might be lost. Jacob Trouba also applies if you really want to chase volume.

I hope we just get 5v5 lines and PP units tomorrow, but in case we don’t.. if Terry doesn’t play, we may see a “perfect” PP1 where it is the four guys listed above plus Leo instead of Poehling. That would be huge, and may swing things for me decisions-wise. Furthermore, if Granlund has been out due to illness and magically returns, I think that destroys the minutes and reliability of everyone here, even if Terry also misses. You can take pot shots on your favorite plays, but at their prices I don’t think I would like that myself.

Welcome back to Frank Vatrano, who returns after a long injury, and just had to bury his older brother. Fuck cancer. I only just found about about this site, but sharing it in case you wanted to learn a little more or pick up some merch to support this cause, in Sammy’s honor: https://sammysfight.com/

MOODS’ DUDES: Cutter Gauthier ($6700), Leo Carlsson ($5500)

One final thing: I have fielded a few questions about how to support our work, and we never have a great answer. I’m just going to go ahead and ask for support on various causes I care about in this part of the newsletter, and if you feel obligated it would mean the world to me that we can have a positive impact on others:

It is, and will remain for the next while, a free newsletter. If this sort of charity is not for you, that’s totally fine. I just want to give the offramp in case it’s been a thought you’ve had but you're not too sure what to do.

I am leading off with someone who is local to me in the Philadelphia area who does incredible work with special needs cats in particular, and takes on the most challenging of cases for rehabilitation and eventual adoption. I've seen some incredible transformations on her Instagram page over the past couple of years as well as lots of heartbreak, and this one came across my feed this evening and tugs at the heartstrings. If you are able to donate any amount to this cat’s operation or the rescue itself on behalf of the hockey community - DFS, MSP, US, Canadian, or otherwise - that would mean a lot to me. Lord knows it has been a fucking week to be a hockey person who cares about things other than hockey.

As shitty as the world is for us humans a lot of the time, we are still incredibly lucky if we get to worry about which grown men with knives on their feet are going to put the puck past the guy wearing a bunch of pillows and a Jason Voorhees mask.

And as someone who spends all of their free time doing something as meaningless as this newsletter and yelling at DJ about fantasy hockey, I'd love to find a way to make a difference via this and many other ideas I have coming up over the next couple of months at least. I'll try and give a diverse set of options (human, animal, food, health, etc..) to try and figure out if something speaks more directly to you. That said, none of them involve donating directly to Cicima’s bank account, so I may need to revisit my personal priorities and if those align with the stated goals of this newsletter…

As always, thanks for reading!

Follow me on X @FakeMoods, and to subscribe to this newsletter. I write ~once a week during the NHL DFS season, previewing DFS slates or reviewing the major contests on DraftKings. You should also subscribe to DJ Mitchell’s YouTube channel, where we stream MSP live (or post right after recording) on Monday and Wednesday nights. We plan to be live on Saturday as well to go over the massive day of games around the league. I am posting some stuff on my own personal YT channel as well, with a few pre-season Underdog drafts up at the moment and our preseason betting deep dive. And join the Discord (DM me if you want in the MSP Discord), if you somehow haven’t already. The Morning Skate Podcast is on iTunes, Sticher, Spotify, and (probably) any other podcast app of your choosing!